The NFL Grind Down: Saturday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Lions
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Cowboys vs. Lions, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Saturday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Cowboys vs. Lions
We are spoiled with another Saturday Night Football game, and this one is shaping up to be one of the best in Week 17. The Cowboys and Lions have both secured a spot in the playoffs. The Cowboys can technically still catch the Eagles for the division title, while the Lions have already won their division. You might think Detroit might have a letdown performance, but they still have a chance at securing the top seed in the NFC. They still have plenty on the line. This game features a 5.5-point spread and a 52.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Rico Dowdle – Out
Dallas Cowboys Preview
The Cowboys nearly pulled off a nice road win against the Dolphins last week, but the defense couldn’t stop Miami’s offense from driving down the field and kicking the game-winning field goal. While the Cowboys have lost 2 games in a row, they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season. Dak Prescott has cooled off a bit the last three weeks but has already topped 30 fantasy points four times this season. Like the rest of the team, he has shined at home, averaging 27.2 fantasy points per game. A matchup against the Lions sets up well for the passing game, as Detroit is 16th in DVOA against the pass and 27th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Do yourself a favor and pull up the game log for CeeDee Lamb. The targets, the receptions, the yards, the touchdowns, and even the rushing attempts are all impressive. He’s delivered a number of slate-breaking performances this season and has averaged 28.8 fantasy points per game at home. Much like his quarterback, he deserves consideration at both MVP and CPT. Even though the volume hasn’t been great, Brandin Cooks has established himself as the WR2 in this offense. He is relying heavily on touchdowns (6), but at least that shows that Prescott trusts him in the red zone.
To round out the wide receiver room for Dallas, we have Michael Gallup, Jalen Tolbert, and KaVontae Turpin. Over the last 4 games, Gallup (47%) and Tolbert (37%) have run a lot more routes than Turpin (13%). The matchup is enticing, as the Lions have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers. Since there’s not a big difference in pricing, I’ll side with Gallup over the other two. Jake Ferguson has a 16% target share on the season and is always a threat once the Cowboys get down near the end zone. The Lions have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
I’m conflicted about what to do with Tony Pollard in this game. On the one hand, the Lions have one of the best run defenses in the NFL (4th in DVOA, 5th in EPA, 1st in fantasy points allowed). On the other hand, Rico Dowdle has been ruled out of this game. Pollard should dominate the backfield snaps and touches. He’ll likely struggle with efficiency in this matchup, but we have to like his chances of scoring a touchdown. Deuce Vaughn and fullback Hunter Luepke are cheap enough that you can sprinkle them into your tournament lineups. Ultimately, I am expecting a pass-heavy approach from the Cowboys.
If this game was outdoors in the cold, I would lock in the Cowboys’ defense. However, Jared Goff has very good numbers indoors in his career. There are still plenty of paths for this defense, but I don’t consider them to be a priority. Kicker Brandon Aubrey has averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game and has yet to miss a field goal this season.
Detroit Lions Preview
The Lions have been impressive this season. They have been just as good on the road (6-2) as they have been at home (5-2). Jared Goff has been more boom-or-bust than expected but is still a very capable quarterback in DFS. When it comes to showdown, I don’t view him as a viable MVP or CPT because he doesn’t have any rushing upside. If he has a big game through the air, one of his pass catchers will likely outscore him. He’s a strong FLEX play, but I will look elsewhere at MVP and CPT. As far as the matchup goes, the Cowboys are 1st in pressure rate and 8th in DVOA against the pass.
We all should have seen the big Amon-Ra St. Brown game coming last week. The Vikings blitz more than any team in the NFL, and St. Brown is the best safety valve for Goff. He finished with yet another massive fantasy outing. The Cowboys don’t blitz as much as the Vikings, but they are the best defense in the NFL when it comes to pressure rate. I expect a lot of quick passes from Goff in this one. That benefits St. Brown more than any of the other wideouts. He’s my favorite MVP and CPT target from the Lions. With that said, I should note that the Cowboys have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Jameson Williams has taken over as the WR2 in this offense. Over the last 2 games, he has run a route on 62% of dropbacks. The next closest is Josh Reynolds at 55%. We’ve always known Williams as a deep threat, but the Lions have been looking his way closer to the line of scrimmage as well. It feels like a breakout game is imminent, although I’m not sure this is the matchup for it. I’ll still have plenty of exposure to Williams in tournaments. I plan to be underweight on Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Cowboys have been just as tough on tight ends as they have been on wide receivers, but Sam LaPorta boasts a 19% target share and a 21% air yards share.
The Lions have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. The problem (at least from our perspective) is that they have a split backfield. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are both having excellent seasons. Gibbs is more of the explosive runner, while Montgomery is more of the between-the-tackles runner. While the Cowboys haven’t been as tough against the run as they have been against the pass, they still have an above-average rush defense. My lean is to Gibbs, who is more involved in the passing game. We can expect him to be involved regardless of the game script.
The Lions’ defense is a tough sell for me. The Cowboys have been close to unstoppable at home, and we’ve seen some leaks in Detroit’s pass defense recently. A fluke play could always result in a touchdown, but I will take my chances with a fade. Kicker Michael Badgley is only making his third appearance of the season.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
My plan of attack on this slate is to get as much exposure to the Cowboys’ passing attack as possible. The Cowboys want to throw the ball, and the Lions are better-equipped to stop the run than the pass. I also have interest in the Cowboys’ defense and in their kicker. This naturally leads me to a lot of builds that are more weighted to the Cowboys. I will build some onslaughts for sure, but I expect that to be a popular approach.
Cowboys-Lions DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 24.50 | $11,400 | $17,100 | 2.15 | $16,000 | 1.53 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 23.53 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 2.22 | $14,500 | 1.62 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 18.71 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.70 | $13,500 | 1.39 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 17.62 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.73 | $13,000 | 1.36 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | RB | 16.10 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 2.06 | $11,500 | 1.40 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 15.36 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.67 | $12,000 | 1.28 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 13.87 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.93 | $10,500 | 1.32 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 13.75 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 2.22 | $10,000 | 1.38 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 12.28 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 1.43 | $11,000 | 1.12 |
| Brandin Cooks | DAL | WR | 9.72 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.80 | $9,000 | 1.08 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | K | 9.02 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.88 | $9,500 | 0.95 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 7.38 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 2.17 | $8,000 | 0.92 |
| Michael Badgley | DET | K | 7.33 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.59 | $8,500 | 0.86 |
| Cowboys | DAL | DST | 6.18 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.40 | $9,500 | 0.65 |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | 5.40 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.80 | $8,000 | 0.68 |
| Josh Reynolds | DET | WR | 5.40 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.69 | $9,000 | 0.60 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 4.82 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.34 | $8,500 | 0.57 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 4.52 | $2,200 | $3,300 | 2.05 | $7,500 | 0.60 |
| Jalen Tolbert | DAL | WR | 4.43 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.85 | $7,000 | 0.63 |
| Deuce Vaughn | DAL | RB | 3.26 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.26 | $5,000 | 0.65 |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | WR | 2.66 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.33 | $6,500 | 0.41 |
| Peyton Hendershot | DAL | TE | 1.33 | $400 | $600 | 3.33 | $5,000 | 0.27 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET | WR | 1.22 | $1,400 | $2,100 | 0.87 | $6,500 | 0.19 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | TE | 0.66 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.41 | $6,000 | 0.11 |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL | RB | 0.65 | $800 | $1,200 | 0.81 | $5,500 | 0.12 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Michael Gallup: $3,000 DK / $8,000 FD
For whatever reason, people do not like playing Michael Gallup in DFS. He’s let us down many times over the last few years, but the Lions are a pass-funnel matchup, and he’s much cheaper than Brandin Cooks. He has played more snaps and has run more routes than both Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin recently. I like the price point and could see him being a difference maker on this slate.
Cowboys vs. Lions Player Pick’em
Season record: 34-17
31-9 over the last 40 games
Amon-Ra St. Brown more than 6.5 receptions (1.58x) – Sleeper
It’s been a great season for pick’em, but we haven’t been without some luck along the way. Kareem Hunt ended up getting 18 rushing yards on the final drive to help us hit our number on Thursday night. We are now 31-9 over the last 40 primetime games. Let’s keep it rolling with Amon-Ra St. Brown to get more than 6.5 receptions. As noted above, the Cowboys have the best pressure rate in the NFL. Jared Goff will look to get the ball out of his hand quickly, much like he did last week against the Vikings (St. Brown had 12 receptions). There’s also the added bonus of the Lions being underdogs in this game.
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