The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Cowboys vs. Steelers

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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Cowboys vs. the Steelers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.

NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Cowboys vs. Steelers

I hope everyone’s Week 5 has been terrific so far. We should have an excellent football game on Sunday night. The Cowboys are looking to improve to 3-2, while the Steelers hope to win their fourth game of the season. These are teams with playoff aspirations and excellent defenses. The game features a spread of 2.5 points and a total of 43.5 points.

Key Injuries

Brandin Cooks – Out
Jaylen Warren – Out
Cordarrelle Patterson – Out

Dallas Cowboys Preview

This is a big game for the Cowboys. They haven’t gotten off to an ideal start, but a win on the road against a tough Steelers team could really jumpstart their season. Dak Prescott doesn’t offer much rushing potential at this stage of his career, and he has been held under 17 fantasy points in 3 of the first 4 games of the season. His biggest fantasy outings over the last few years have come in games where the Cowboys get behind multiple scores early and are forced to air it out. He has a tough draw against the Steelers, who are 1st in PFF’s pass rush grades, 2nd in PFF’s pass defense grades, and 6th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Prescott is viable given the nature of Showdown slates, but I plan to look elsewhere at Captain on DraftKings.

Brandin Cooks on injured reserve opens up a 13% target share and a 20% air yards share. Let’s take a look at the usage for the other wideouts so far this season:

CeeDee Lamb: 81% route percentage, 21% target rate, 27% air yards share
Jalen Tolbert: 77% route percentage, 12% target rate, 20% air yards share
KaVontae Turpin: 17% route percentage, 5% target rate, 7% air yards share
Jake Ferguson: 67% route percentage, 21% target rate, 19% air yards share

CeeDee Lamb has yet to top 100 receiving yards this season. His usage has been good but not up to the level we expect from the wide receiver with the second-highest pay in the NFL. He’s only had a 21% target share and a 27% air yards share. While I worry about the offense as a whole in this matchup, I do expect a heavy dose of Lamb on Sunday night. Joey Porter is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and should be able to shut down whichever receiver he lines up against on the outside. Lamb has lined up in the slot on 55% of the snaps this season.

With Cooks out, Jalen Tolbert will be the clear WR2, and KaVontae Turpin will see an uptick in snap share. Tolbert projects better overall and on a per-dollar basis, but it won’t take much for Turpin to pay off his salary. I plan to have at least one of Lamb and Jake Ferguson on every lineup. In the games that he has played, Ferguson has been second on the team in target share (21%). He’s had elite usage for a tight end and is facing a defense that is 16th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season.

While I don’t love the matchup for the Cowboys’ backfield, Rico Dowdle has seen an increase in running back touch share in every game this season. The problem is that Ezekiel Elliott is still involved when Dallas gets down near the goal line, Deuce Vaughn is still involved on passing downs, and fullback Hunter Luepke is starting to see more work. With a bad matchup and so many question marks, I plan to be underweight on this rushing attack.

The Cowboys D/ST has not lived up to expectations so far this season. They have a total of 4 fantasy points in the last 3 games combined. We know the talent is there and Justin Fields does take a decent number of sacks, but I’m not prioritizing the Cowboys in this one. Brandon Aubrey is one of the best kickers in the NFL, and with this game having a low total, kicking points could be more valuable.

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Pittsburgh Steelers Preview

We were waiting and waiting for a classic breakout game from Justin Fields. The problem in the first 3 games was that the Steelers jumped out to leads and were able to lean on their defense and their running game. Against the Colts last week, they fell behind multiple scores and let Fields loose. He finished the game with 312 passing yards, 55 rushing yards, and 3 touchdowns. A matchup against the Cowboys looks solid on paper, as Dallas is below league average in PFF’s grades against the pass, EPA against the pass, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. Given the upside for Fields on the ground, he’s firmly in play at MVP and Captain.

As always, let’s look at the usage of Pittsburgh’s wideouts so far this season:

George Pickens: 81% route percentage, 27% target rate, 55% air yards share
Van Jefferson: 59% route percentage, 7% target rate, 10% air yards share
Calvin Austin: 52% route percentage, 9% target rate, 16% air yards share
Pat Freiermuth: 75% route percentage, 17% target rate, 15% air yards share

The Steelers aren’t a team that wants to throw the football, so that alone makes their receivers risky fantasy options. With that said, George Pickens is the clear WR1 in Pittsburgh. He leads the team in route percentage and target share. He also has a massive 55% air yards share. He’s coming off his best game of the season and is facing a Cowboys’ secondary that hasn’t been as sharp as they have been the last few years. Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin have a combined 16% target share on the season. I’m not particularly interested in either receiver. Pat Freiermuth has some appeal, as he’s second on the team in target rate and air yards share. I will note that the Cowboys have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

How many times have we targeted Najee Harris in these spots only to be disappointed? I’m so torn on what to do with him tonight, but the workload should be elite with Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson both ruled out. This is about as good of a matchup as you are going to find (at least on paper through the first 4 weeks), as the Cowboys are 30th or worse in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. I have no choice: I am going right back to Harris and will be using him as a contrarian MVP and Captain. Jonathan Ward and Aaron Shampklin will mix in here and there and can be used in large-field tournaments on DraftKings.

Between the two defenses, I certainly prefer the Steelers over the Cowboys. They have the better pass rush, the better pass defense, and the better run defense. The salaries for kickers continue to rise on DraftKings, but Chris Boswell is a solid option given the low game total.

Lineup Construction Thoughts

Given the matchups, I want to be overweight on the Cowboys’ passing attack (mostly CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson) and overweight on the Steelers’ rushing attack. My hope is that the Steelers are able to build a lead and then lean on the ground game, while the Cowboys would be forced to air it out.

Cowboys vs. Steelers DFS Salaries & Projections

Player Team Pos Proj DK Sal CPT Sal DK/$ FD Sal FD/$
Justin Fields PIT QB 19.57 $9,800 $14,700 2.00 $15,000 1.30
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR 18.11 $11,800 $17,700 1.53 $17,000 1.07
Najee Harris PIT RB 17.08 $8,800 $13,200 1.94 $12,000 1.42
Dak Prescott DAL QB 16.84 $10,800 $16,200 1.56 $15,500 1.09
George Pickens PIT WR 14.61 $9,600 $14,400 1.52 $12,500 1.17
Jake Ferguson DAL TE 12.10 $7,600 $11,400 1.59 $10,500 1.15
Rico Dowdle DAL RB 10.47 $8,200 $12,300 1.28 $11,500 0.91
Pat Freiermuth PIT TE 9.10 $6,600 $9,900 1.38 $8,500 1.07
Jalen Tolbert DAL WR 8.98 $5,600 $8,400 1.60 $10,000 0.90
Chris Boswell PIT K 8.29 $5,400 $8,100 1.54 $9,000 0.92
Brandon Aubrey DAL K 7.38 $5,800 $8,700 1.27 $9,500 0.78
Steelers PIT DST 6.74 $4,000 $6,000 1.69 $9,500 0.71
Cowboys DAL DST 6.45 $4,800 $7,200 1.34 $9,000 0.72
Van Jefferson PIT WR 4.95 $3,200 $4,800 1.55 $6,500 0.76
KaVontae Turpin DAL WR 4.71 $3,000 $4,500 1.57 $7,000 0.67
Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 4.56 $4,400 $6,600 1.04 $8,500 0.54
Calvin Austin PIT WR 3.89 $3,600 $5,400 1.08 $7,500 0.52
Jalen Brooks DAL WR 3.48 $2,400 $3,600 1.45 $5,500 0.63
Darnell Washington PIT TE 2.65 $2,600 $3,900 1.02 $7,000 0.38
Hunter Luepke DAL RB 2.47 $1,000 $1,500 2.47 $6,500 0.38
Deuce Vaughn DAL RB 2.27 $400 $600 5.68 $6,000 0.38
Aaron Shampklin PIT RB 1.69 $2,000 $3,000 0.85 $5,000 0.34
Jonathan Ward PIT RB 1.65 $200 $300 8.25 $5,000 0.33
Scotty Miller PIT WR 1.59 $800 $1,200 1.99 $6,000 0.27
Luke Schoonmaker DAL TE 1.09 $1,600 $2,400 0.68 $7,500 0.15

Fantasy Sleepers

Jake Ferguson: $7,600 DK / $10,500 FD

The term sleeper is a bit of a stretch here, but Jake Ferguson is priced up on DraftKings and could get overlooked on FanDuel. The Steelers have an elite defense, but they have been mediocre at defending tight ends this season. Meanwhile, Ferguson boasts strong usage numbers — 21% target share, 19% air yards share, and a 20% first-read rate.

Jets vs. Vikings Fantasy Pick’em

Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 13-3

CeeDee Lamb more than 6.5 receptions (1.92x) – Sleeper Fantasy

I’m playing into the matchup for this pick. Joey Porter is an elite cornerback, but he has only lined up in the slot on 9 snaps all season. Meanwhile, star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has lined up in the slot 55% of the time. If the Cowboys are smart, they will put him in the slot as often as possible tonight. I could see a lot of short and easy catches for Lamb in this one.

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Image Credit: Getty Images

Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious