The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Falcons vs. Eagles
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Falcons vs. Eagles, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks that we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites, like Sleeper Fantasy, ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. To build the best lineups possible, check out LineupHQ, which is my favorite NFL DFS optimizer in the industry.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Falcons vs. Eagles
There was a lot more action and a lot more scoring on the Sunday main slate. We’ll see if that continues on Monday night. The Falcons are coming off a home loss to the Steelers, while the Eagles narrowly outlasted the Packers in Brazil. The Falcons didn’t have to travel as far this week, but the Eagles are playing on two extra days of rest. This game features a 5.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries
A.J. Brown – Out
Johnny Wilson – Questionable
Atlanta Falcons Preview
The Falcons were unable to exact revenge on their former coach Arthur Smith in Week 1. The defense did a decent enough job against the Steelers, but the offense could only muster up 226 total yards. While some credit should go to Pittsburgh’s defense, it’s pretty clear that Kirk Cousins doesn’t have the same mobility or ability to plant his back foot as he did last season before his Achilles injury. The Falcons were expected to air it out more this season but had one of the highest run rates in Week 1. They ran most of their pass plays from shotgun, which shows their concern for Cousins given the fact that he’s been so good at play-action in his career. He did complete 60% of his passes but only averaged 6 yards per attempt. He’s viable given the nature of Showdown slates, but he’s far from a lock-and-load play.
Let’s take a look at Atlanta’s receiving room usage from Week 1:
- Drake London: 82% route percentage, 12% target rate, 17% air yards share
- Darnell Mooney: 86% route percentage, 12% target rate, 26% air yards share
- Ray-Ray McCloud: 54% route percentage, 27% target rate, 46% air yards share
- Kyle Pitts: 79% route percentage, 12% target rate, 18% air yards share
Drake London was quiet in the opener, but he had a difficult cornerback matchup and the team only passed for 155 yards. I would have liked to see his target and air-yard shares be a bit higher, but as we saw with Marvin Harrison, we shouldn’t overreact after one bad outing. After last week’s game, the coaches said they needed to get London the ball more. This is a great bounce-back spot against a shaky secondary that couldn’t cover any of the Packers’ wideouts. Darnell Mooney was the clear WR2 for Atlanta and could end up leading the team in air yards. He’s going to be volatile week in and week out, which makes him a better tournament option. Ray-Ray McCloud had a 27% target rate in Week 1, but we shouldn’t expect that to continue moving forward. However, he’s very cheap on DraftKings, and the Eagles can certainly get beat deep.
I spent most of my Week 1 content telling everyone not to fall for the Kyle Pitts trap. Naturally, the Steelers had a busted coverage and he caught a touchdown. Given the lack of production at the position, he was a top-2 tight end in Week 1. Perhaps I need to change my tune. He ran a route on 79% of dropbacks, and his aDOT (average depth of target) is expected to be much lower this season. This is typically a negative for most wideouts, but it should be a positive given the current health of Cousins. It didn’t take long — I’m back in.
FINALLY! We don’t have to worry about the usage of Bijan Robinson. With Smith gone, Robinson handled 88% of the team’s running back touches in Week 1. He had over 100 yards from scrimmage and saw a 19% target share. With the mobility and arm strength of Cousins in question, we could see a lot of dump-offs to Robinson this season. We rarely have running backs with a higher median projection than quarterbacks, but that’s the case here with Robinson. He deserves consideration at MVP and CPT. Tyler Allgeier will have to score or break a long play to pay off his price point.
I don’t have a strong take on the Falcons D/ST on this slate. They are slightly more appealing with A.J. Brown being out, but they are sizable underdogs on the road. I’d rather take a chance on their kicker Younghoe Koo.
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Philadelphia Eagles Preview
It’s hard to glean too much from the Eagles’ win over the Packers in Week 1. The game was played in Brazil on turf which did not hold up well. The offense moved the ball well (over 400 total yards), but the defense struggled to stop the Packers (gave up over 400 total yards). One of the big talking points was the Tush Push not working nearly as well without Jason Kelce at center. We’ll see if the Eagles decide to abandon it moving forward. As for Jalen Hurts, he’s arguably the best play on the slate. He will be without one of his star wideouts, but the Eagles played very fast under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. If Hurts has 34 pass attempts and 13 rush attempts every game like he did last week, he’s going to have a huge fantasy season. He’ll be in every one of my lineups tonight and featured heavily at MVP and CPT.
I would post the usage for the wideouts in Week 1, but A.J. Brown has been ruled out of this week’s game against the Falcons. His absence is going to have a huge impact on the rest of the pass catchers. I was already high on DeVonta Smith heading into the season, and with Brown out tonight, he could see a 30%+ target share. As noted in last week’s article, he’s going to play the Keenan Allen and CeeDee Lamb role that was so productive in Moore’s past offenses. I have a hard time not including him in each build and will be looking to bet the overs on his props.
Jahan Dotson should slide in as the WR2 in the offense, but we’ll also see some Parris Campbell and Johnny Wilson (currently questionable). Given Dotson’s current price point, he should garner a bunch of ownership, especially on DraftKings ($4,000). If you are building multiple lineups, I would look to include Campbell and Wilson in your player pool. Dallas Goedert could challenge Smith as the top target earner on the Eagles on Monday night. He had 5 targets in Week 1 and ran a route on 67% of dropbacks. I will have plenty of Hurts double-stacks in play.
It seems like everyone overthought the Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia thing when it came to season-long drafts. Everyone was worried about Hurts stealing his touchdowns. It turns out that if you take a really good running back and put him on a much better team, he might actually be even better than he was before. He totaled 132 yards on 26 touches and scored 3 touchdowns against the Packers. Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley might see a handful of snaps combined, but they are unlikely to be factors on this slate.
The Eagles’ defense struggled mightily in Week 1, but they are firmly in play on Monday night. They are facing a quarterback that doesn’t look right after coming back from an Achilles injury, and this is their home opener. At the very least, they will be fired up for this one. Kicker Jake Elliott could easily pull a Jake Moody from last Monday or a Ka’imi Fairbairn from last night. He offers a high floor at his price point.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
The absence of A.J. Brown should make the Eagles’ offense even more concentrated. It also opens up some strong value plays. Most of my builds will feature at least 3 of the following 4 Philly players — Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley. While I love the Eagles, I also want exposure to the playmakers on the Falcons. I like the squeaky wheel narrative for Drake London and could see Bijan Robinson getting 20+ touches. Ultimately, this feels like a good slate to build multiple lineups.
Falcons vs. Eagles DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 23.16 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 2.32 | $17,500 | 1.32 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 20.37 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.96 | $16,000 | 1.27 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 19.23 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.81 | $13,500 | 1.42 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 18.43 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 2.09 | $11,500 | 1.60 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | QB | 15.85 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.76 | $14,000 | 1.13 |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 14.68 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.88 | $10,500 | 1.40 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 10.93 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.88 | $9,500 | 1.15 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 10.61 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.56 | $10,000 | 1.06 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 8.98 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 2.25 | $7,500 | 1.20 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 8.98 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.66 | $8,000 | 1.12 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 7.85 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.64 | $8,500 | 0.92 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | ATL | WR | 6.92 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.31 | $7,000 | 0.99 |
| Younghoe Koo | ATL | K | 6.91 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.38 | $8,500 | 0.81 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 6.54 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.49 | $9,000 | 0.73 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 5.93 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.74 | $8,000 | 0.74 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 5.89 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.64 | $9,000 | 0.65 |
| Parris Campbell | PHI | WR | 4.86 | $200 | $300 | 24.30 | $5,000 | 0.97 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | 3.86 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.38 | $7,500 | 0.51 |
| Johnny Wilson | PHI | WR | 2.71 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 2.71 | $6,500 | 0.42 |
| Charlie Woerner | ATL | TE | 1.75 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.46 | $6,000 | 0.29 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | ATL | WR | 1.62 | $200 | $300 | 8.10 | $6,500 | 0.25 |
| Grant Calcaterra | PHI | TE | 1.32 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0.55 | $7,000 | 0.19 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Dallas Goedert: $5,800 DK / $9,500 FD
We currently have Goedert projected for less than 30% ownership, which seems like a mistake by the field if it comes to fruition. He should see a bigger piece of the pie with Brown out, and he’s long been a favorite target of Hurts. It’s likely a roster construction thing, as most will be looking to employ the stars-and-scrubs approach.
Falcons vs. Eagles Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 5-1
DeVonta Smith more than 71.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.67x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We have only missed one Fantasy Pick’em play this season, and it was by a single yard. Nope, I’m not still bitter about it at all. For Monday night’s game, we are rolling with Smith to get more than 71.5 rushing + receiving yards. His current receiving yards number is at 75.5, so I’m not sure why Sleeper is offering the combined yards at 71.5. Even if they raise it up to 75.5, I’d still like it. Smith is going to see a ton of volume playing in the slot in Moore’s offense this season and should see a sizable uptick in targets with Brown ruled out.
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