The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Giants vs. Steelers
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Giants vs. Steelers, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, check the NFL weather page each week to see if wind or rain will impact this game (or any games).
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers – Giants vs. Steelers
There have been far too many injuries this season. The latest victim in my lineups was Jordan Mason on Sunday night. It was painful watching Isaac Guerendo come into the game and dominate after Mason left the game early.
We aren’t here to talk about bad breaks. We are here to break down the Giants and Steelers on Monday night. The Giants dropped to 2-5 after getting embarrassed by the Eagles at home last week. The Steelers made a move at quarterback and took down the Jets in Week 7 to improve to 5-2 on the season. While this game feels like it could be one-sided, it features a spread of only 6 points. The betting market isn’t expecting many fireworks in this one, as the total is set at only 36.5 points.
Key Injuries
Cordarrelle Patterson – Out
Justin Fields – Questionable
New York Giants Preview
Even though he’s a mobile quarterback, Daniel Jones has never had a high floor. He’s always struggled with consistency but has had multiple ceiling performances in his career. This season, he’s kept the low floor but hasn’t had the high ceiling. He’s been held to 10 or fewer fantasy points in 3 of 7 games and has only topped 20 fantasy points one time this season. I don’t envy him on Monday night, as he faces a Steelers defense that is 1st in PFF’s pass rush grades and 5th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Without his starting left tackle, it could be a long night for Jones.
Here’s the wideout usage for the Giants in the games where Malik Nabers has been active (Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7):
Malik Nabers: 92% route percentage, 35% target rate, 52% air yards share
Wan’Dale Robinson: 74% route percentage, 26% target rate, 15% air yards share
Darius Slayton: 78% route percentage, 10% target rate, 19% air yards share
Theo Johnson: 68% route percentage, 4% target rate, 4% air yards share
The usage for Nabers is something we haven’t seen since the year Cooper Kupp won the triple crown. Granted, this Giants offense is much different than the Rams offense that season, but it’s hard to ignore a player who is getting 35% of the targets and 52% of the air yards. The problem is that he’s going to see a lot of coverage from Joey Porter and that his quarterback has struggled mightily under pressure this season (and his whole career).
Darius Slayton runs a lot of deep routes that take time to develop downfield. I’ll take my chances with a fade in this matchup. Theo Johnson has a 4% target share in games with Nabers active. I’ll fade him as well. The one wideout besides Nabers that does have some appeal is Wan’Dale Robinson. He has one of the lowest aDOTs in the NFL, which might actually be a positive in this matchup. Jones will need to get the ball out of his hands quickly. An 8-catch, 60-yard performance might actually be enough to make the optimal in what is expected to be a very low-scoring slate.
Even though Devin Singletary was the RB1 at the start of the season and returned from injury last week, he only played on 22% of the snaps and had 6 touches. Tyrone Tracy kept the lead role by playing 67% of the snaps. Unfortunately, he wasn’t all that efficient with his 9 touches (32 yards). We have the two projected very closely on this slate. I’ll side with Tracy, who is $4,000 cheaper than Singletary on DraftKings.
The Giants can actually generate a decent amount of pressure and have been mediocre against the run and the pass. They likely won’t get a favorable game script, but I don’t mind using this defense in large-field tournaments. Kicking points could be more valuable with such a low total, but Greg Joseph has only made 1 of his last 3 field goal attempts. Additionally, the Giants might not settle for field goals if they find themselves in a hole early.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
I’ll come out and say it: I thought it was a mistake when the Steelers started Russell Wilson over Justin Fields last week. I’m not ready to admit I was wrong yet, but Wilson certainly looked sharp against the Jets in his first game in a Steelers uniform. He threw for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns against a very good secondary. I will note that his receivers made some impressive catches in that game, but Mr. Unlimited deserves some credit as well. I’m not sure what his ceiling is at this point, but he’s certainly viable on this slate given his high median projection.
George Pickens was certainly happy with the quarterback change. He had his best game of the season with Wilson under center last week, catching 5-of-9 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. He saw a whopping 71% of the team’s air yards and was the first read on 40% of dropbacks. The Giants have given up a lot of big plays in the passing game this season and are 15th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Calvin Austin and Van Jefferson round out most three-receiver sets for the Steelers. They saw a total of 7 targets combined in Wilson’s first start. While that’s not great, we shouldn’t put a ton of stock into a one-game sample. They are both cheap enough to keep in your player pool, especially on DraftKings. The Giants have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, but Pat Freiermuth has a bit of a squeaky wheel narrative after seeing only 2 targets last week.
Najee Harris out-snapped and out-touched Jaylen Warren in Week 6, but it was a perfect 50-50 split in terms of snaps. Harris will continue to get the bulk of the early-down work, but Warren should have a few series to himself. Both running backs are capable pass catchers. They are comparable targets on DraftKings, but Warren is $4,000 cheaper than Harris on FanDuel.
Daniel Jones takes a lot of sacks. The Steelers generate a lot of pressure. The Giants are missing their starting left tackle. Fire up the Steelers D/ST on this Showdown slate. This is also a good spot for kicker Chris Boswell.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This game has one of the lowest totals (36.5) we have seen all season. If it plays out as expected, it’s going to be a low-scoring slate. I am going to prioritize the Steelers D/ST and Chris Boswell in my builds. I will also be stacking more heavily with the Steelers than I will be with the Giants.
Giants vs. Steelers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | PIT | QB | 15.95 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.66 | $15,500 | 1.03 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 15.25 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 1.53 | $16,500 | 0.92 |
| George Pickens | PIT | WR | 15.09 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.54 | $12,500 | 1.21 |
| Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 13.96 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.52 | $13,500 | 1.03 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 13.92 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.48 | $14,000 | 0.99 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 10.05 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.40 | $9,500 | 1.06 |
| Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | WR | 9.66 | $7,800 | $11,700 | 1.24 | $10,000 | 0.97 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 8.82 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.63 | $9,000 | 0.98 |
| Tyrone Tracy | NYG | RB | 8.01 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.82 | $11,500 | 0.70 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 7.99 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.29 | $8,000 | 1.00 |
| Devin Singletary | NYG | RB | 7.85 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 0.93 | $10,500 | 0.75 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 6.90 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.38 | $8,500 | 0.81 |
| Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | 6.44 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.11 | $8,000 | 0.81 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 6.05 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.02 | $7,500 | 0.81 |
| Greg Joseph | NYG | K | 5.65 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.18 | $8,500 | 0.66 |
| Van Jefferson | PIT | WR | 5.56 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.39 | $7,500 | 0.74 |
| Giants | NYG | DST | 5.41 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 1.59 | $9,000 | 0.60 |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | TE | 3.87 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.61 | $7,000 | 0.55 |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | TE | 2.89 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.03 | $6,500 | 0.44 |
| MyCole Pruitt | PIT | TE | 1.43 | $400 | $600 | 3.58 | $5,500 | 0.26 |
| Daniel Bellinger | NYG | TE | 1.42 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0.89 | $6,500 | 0.22 |
| Jalin Hyatt | NYG | WR | 1.34 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 1.34 | $5,500 | 0.24 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Chris Boswell: $5,000 DK / $8,500 FD
Kickers are never super contrarian, but we have Chris Boswell projected for less than 20% ownership on this slate. This is a game where the Steelers should be able to move the ball, but the Giants have a decent enough defense. With this expected to be a low-scoring game, kicking points could become more valuable.
Giants vs. Steelers Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 19-9
Malik Nabers less than 6.5 receptions (1.57x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Jordan Mason got hurt last night. It’s not how you want to lose pick ‘ems, but it’s part of the game. Luckily, many sites ended up refunding tickets with Mason on them. For tonight’s game, I am rolling with Malik Nabers to get less than 6.5 receptions. The Steelers will try to dominate time of possession by running the ball and leaning on their defense. On top of that, they have an elite pass rush and one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in Joey Porter. Even if Nabers gets double-digit targets, I’m not sure he’ll get to 7 receptions in this difficult matchup.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and Pro Football Focus