The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Morning Football - Patriots vs. Jaguars
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Patriots vs. Jaguars, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Morning Football matchup. As always, check the NFL weather page each week to see if any games will be impacted by wind or rain.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers- Patriots vs. Jaguars
We are back with another London edition of the NFL DFS Grind Down. The Patriots have one of the worst possible spots on the schedule. They have to fly across the pond after playing last Sunday, while the Jaguars have made camp in London for two weeks now. From a talent standpoint, I’m not sure there’s too much separating these teams at the moment. However, the spot certainly favors Jacksonville, which is why they are listed as 5-point favorites. The total for the game is sitting at a paltry 40.5 points.
Key Injuries
Rhamondre Stevenson – Questionable
Travis Etienne – Questionable
Evan Engram – Questionable/Probable
Gabe Davis – Questionable/Probable
New England Patriots Preview
Drake Maye looked sharp in his first NFL start. Granted, most players would look sharp compared to what we saw from Jacoby Brissett in the first 5 games, but Maye deserves credit. He completed 61% of his passes, he threw for 3 touchdowns, and he added 38 yards on the ground. He did commit 3 turnovers (2 interceptions and a fumble), but the positives were there. It’s a tough spot to ask a rookie making his second start to play in London after all that travel, but at least the matchup is elite. The Jaguars are 25th in PFF’s pass rush grades and dead last in both EPA against the pass and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season.
Let’s take a look at the usage of New England’s wideouts in Maye’s first start:
Demario Douglas: 64% route percentage, 24% target rate, 38% air yards share
Ja’Lynn Polk: 67% route percentage, 9% target rate, 15% air yards share
Kayshon Boutte: 76% route percentage, 9% target rate, 36% air yards share
Hunter Henry: 64% route percentage, 9% target rate, 10% air yards share
First off, let’s talk about the matchup against the Jaguars. They have been the worst pass defense in the NFL this season and have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Demario Douglas is nearly a full-time slot receiver, which is a positive given that his quarterback is an inexperienced rookie. In Maye’s debut, Douglas saw 24% of the team’s targets and 38% of the team’s air yards. He projects the best of these wideouts but is also the most expensive. Ja’Lynn Polk and Kayshon Boutte rounded out most three-receiver sets last week, but they each only saw 3 targets. Hunter Henry could fly under the radar at his price point. The Jaguars haven’t been much better at defending tight ends.
Rhamondre Stevenson sat out last week and did not practice on Wednesday. In his absence against the Texans, Antonio Gibson handled 16 of the 26 running back touches. He couldn’t do much with his opportunities but has averaged 4.7 yards per carry this season and is a very capable pass catcher. If Stevenson is out, Gibson will be a strong option in all formats. Terrell Jennings and JaMycal Hasty would mix in as well. If Stevenson is active, he’s a good bet to lead this backfield in touches. The matchup is enticing, as the Jaguars have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to running backs this season.
The Patriots have the better defense of these two teams, and the Jaguars tend to struggle when they play football. While not a priority, the Patriots D/ST is viable on this slate. Kicker Joey Slye is also viable, as the Patriots should be able to move the ball on this defense.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
It’s rarely a good time to be a Jaguars fan. This is certainly not one of those rare times. The Jaguars are 1-5 this season and were just blown out by the Bears. The good news is that they will have the travel edge this week and are facing a similarly bad team in the Patriots. Trevor Lawrence has not played up to expectations this season but has thrown 2 touchdowns in each of the last 3 games and is coming off his two best fantasy outings. It’s a decent matchup on paper, as the Patriots are 25th in EPA against the pass.
With Evan Engram looking likely to play, let’s take a look at Jacksonville’s wideout usage from Weeks 1 and 6 (when Engram was active):
Brian Thomas: 75% route percentage, 18% target rate, 25% air yards share
Christian Kirk: 77% route percentage, 17% target rate, 24% air yards share
Gabe Davis: 77% route percentage, 19% target rate, 31% air yards share
Evan Engram: 69% route percentage, 25% target rate, 15% air yards share
We rarely see such an even distribution of targets and air yards in an offense. In the 2 games that Engram has played, all four of Jacksonville’s top wideouts have seen between a 17-25% target share and a 15-31% air yards share. Brian Thomas remains my favorite target, but Gabe Davis continues to get peppered with deep balls down the field. Christian Kirk and Engram have lower aDOTs and tend to have higher floors for DFS. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Patriots are 19th against wide receivers and 14th against tight ends.
Travis Etienne left last week’s game against the Bears and was labeled as week-to-week. Now, he’s been practicing on a limited basis early this week, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his status leading up to Sunday morning. If he’s out, Tank Bigsby will draw the start and handle the bulk of the work in this backfield. He’s been the more productive back of the two this season. Luckily, he’s priced up, which means he won’t be a free square on this slate. If Etienne is active, we’ll likely see close to a 50/50 split given how well Bigsby has played the last few games.
The Jaguars have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL this season, but they are facing a rookie quarterback who is making his first start away from home. At the very least, they are worth a look in large-field tournaments. Kicker Cam Little is viable in a game that could be low-scoring.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
We can’t make too many roster decisions until we know the availability of Rhamondre Stevenson and Travis Etienne. If they are both out, I will be prioritizing Antonio Gibson and Tank Bigsby in lineups. If Stevenson and Etienne are active, I’ll likely avoid the running backs and focus on the passing attacks. Given how bad these offenses can be, both defenses are worth a look in tournaments. Given the low total of the game, both kickers are viable values.
Patriots vs. Jaguars DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 19.85 | $10,600 | $15,900 | 1.87 | ||
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | 16.93 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.63 | ||
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 14.41 | $9,200 | $13,800 | 1.57 | ||
| Brian Thomas | JAX | WR | 14.37 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.53 | ||
| Evan Engram | JAX | TE | 13.82 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.97 | ||
| Tank Bigsby | JAX | RB | 13.11 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.49 | ||
| Christian Kirk | JAX | WR | 11.88 | $7,600 | $11,400 | 1.56 | ||
| Demario Douglas | NE | WR | 11.13 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 1.39 | ||
| Ja’Lynn Polk | NE | WR | 7.83 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.61 | ||
| Gabriel Davis | JAX | WR | 7.79 | $6,600 | $9,900 | 1.18 | ||
| Cam Little | JAX | K | 7.71 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.48 | ||
| Joey Slye | NE | K | 6.99 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.40 | ||
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 6.71 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.20 | ||
| Antonio Gibson | NE | RB | 6.64 | $8,600 | $12,900 | 0.77 | ||
| Jaguars | JAX | DST | 6.49 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.48 | ||
| D’Ernest Johnson | JAX | RB | 6.38 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.33 | ||
| Kendrick Bourne | NE | WR | 5.47 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.71 | ||
| Patriots | NE | DST | 4.83 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.21 | ||
| Austin Hooper | NE | TE | 3.71 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 2.32 | ||
| Brenton Strange | JAX | TE | 2.59 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.08 | ||
| K.J. Osborn | NE | WR | 1.77 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.48 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Gabe Davis: $6,600 DK
This is not a play that I would use in cash games, but Gabe Davis continues to get peppered with downfield targets. He has the highest aDOT on the team and has seen 31% of the team’s air yards in the games that Evan Engram has played this season. If Trevor Lawrence can connect with him one or two times on a deep ball, there’s a clear path for Davis to find his way onto the optimal lineup at low ownership.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 17-6 (will update after TNF)
Drake Maye more than 27.5 rushing yards (1.70x) – Sleeper Fantasy
For whatever reason, I’ve never been a huge college football fan. However, during his time at North Carolina, Drake Maye rushed for over 1,200 yards. I know the college game is different than the NFL, but when you average 42 rushing yards per game as a quarterback, you clearly aren’t afraid to scramble and make plays with your feet. In his first start last week, he had 5 rush attempts for 38 yards. It’s also worth noting that the Jaguars have allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season and have really only faced one mobile quarterback (Josh Allen rushed for 44 yards). The Patriots are 5-point underdogs and could be without Rhamondre Stevenson, which could lead to more dropbacks for Maye.
Use our Sleeper promo code for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus