The NFL Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Vikings vs. Bears
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In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for Vikings vs. Bears, go over potential sleepers, and even take a look at some player props that we can target on fantasy pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Vikings vs. Bears
Mondays are most people’s least favorite day of the week, but not for DFS players like ourselves. We get another NFL game to sweat. The Bears aren’t having the best season, but they do have some young talent and are likely to get two high-end 1st-round picks in the upcoming draft. The Vikings are sitting at 6-5 and still have a decent chance of making the playoffs. They actually have both games against the Lions remaining, so a division title isn’t completely out of the question. This game features a 3-point spread and a 44-point total.
Key Injuries
Justin Jefferson – Doubtful
D’Onta Foreman – Out
Minnesota Vikings Preview
Joshua Dobbs is one of the most likable players in the NFL. The story jumping from team to team is incredible, and now he has a chance to lead the Vikings to the playoffs. In his 2 games since joining the team, he has scored 25 (vs. New Orleans) and 19 (vs. Denver) fantasy points. And he’s still learning the playbook. He draws a nice matchup against the Bears, who have turned into one of the biggest pass-funnels in the league. Chicago is 29th in dropback EPA and 4th in rush EPA. In addition to the nice matchup through the air, Dobbs has rushed for at least 40 yards in 7 of his 11 starts this season. His rushing upside puts him on the short list of potential MVP and CPT candidates.
There’s a slim chance Justin Jefferson is able to return this week, but it sounds like he’s closer to doubtful. For our purposes, let’s assume that he’s out again. T.J. Hockenson has been the favorite target for Dobbs, catching 15-of-22 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown in the last 2 games. He draws another nice matchup, as the Bears have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Jordan Addison and KJ Osborn will continue to serve as the top two receivers in the offense (assuming Jefferson is out). In the 2 games with Dobbs under center, Addison has caught 7-of-13 targets and Osborn has caught 1-of-2 targets (didn’t play in Week 10). A case can be made for both receivers given the pass-funnel matchup, but I do prefer finding the cap space for Addison. Brandon Powell will play in 3-receiver sets and could be the best per-dollar value of the three on DraftKings, as he’s only $2,000.
Alexander Mattison left Week 10’s game with a concussion, and Ty Chandler played well in his absence. Many expected this to be closer to a 50-50 split in Week 11, but it was still Mattison’s backfield. He played on 64% of the snaps and handled 19 touches. Chandler played on 31% of the snaps and saw 14 touches. The problem for both backs is a matchup against the Bears, who are ranked 11th in DVOA against the run and 4th in rush EPA.
The Vikings are home favorites, and their defense is better than most people realize. Justin Fields takes a lot of sacks, and this is an offense that is no stranger to turnovers. Kicker Greg Joseph has made at least 2 field goals in 6 of the last 7 games.
Chicago Bears Preview
Justin Fields might be the only player in this game that is capable of scoring 30+ fantasy points. His rushing prop is sitting at a very healthy 52.5 yards, and he’s thrown for more than 280 yards in 2 of his last 4 starts. The crazy part is that he has some positive touchdown regression coming his way, at least on the ground. He has 65 rushing attempts this season and has only scored 1 touchdown. Last season, he had 8 touchdowns on 160 rushing attempts. He’s close to a must-play in my eyes and clearly deserves consideration at MVP and CPT.
The Bears have more than two pass catchers, but don’t tell that to Fields. He loves throwing the ball to two players in particular — DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. The two have racked up a 42% target share this season. Moore has already topped 96 receiving yards in 4 games with Fields under center this season, and Kmet is one of the few tight ends capable of commanding double-digit targets. Both are viable here, but the matchup gives a slight edge to Moore. The Vikings are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 15th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Outside of Moore and Kmet, the Bears will give snaps to Darnell Mooney, Tyler Scott, and Equanimeous St. Brown. They are best suited as lineup-fillers in large-field tournaments on DraftKings. In the backfield, D’Onta Foreman has been ruled out. Khalil Herbert should lead the way in terms of touches, but Roschon Johnson will be heavily involved as well. I expect Herbert to handle most of the early downs and Johnson to be more of the pass-catching back. Ultimately, the decision between the two should come down to how you think the game is going to play out.
The Bears defense is good against the run, but they have the 2nd-worst pressure rate and don’t generate many turnovers. I’ll take my chances with a fade. Kicker Cairo Santos has made at least 3 field goals in 3 of his last 7 games, so he offers some upside.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Given the rushing upside for both quarterbacks, I have a hard time building lineups without both of them in it. Most of my MVP and CPT exposure will go to Justin Fields and Joshua Dobbs, but you can also make a case for D.J. Moore and T.J. Hockenson. I’m not overly interested in the defenses, but both kickers have had some big outings this season. As far as the running backs are concerned, I certainly prefer the Chicago side over the Minnesota side.
Vikings-Bears DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | CHI | QB | 21.09 | $11,200 | $16,800 | 1.88 | $16,500 | 1.28 |
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | QB | 20.56 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 2.06 | $15,500 | 1.33 |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | 18.31 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 2.03 | $13,000 | 1.41 |
| D.J. Moore | CHI | WR | 16.49 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 1.59 | $14,000 | 1.18 |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 13.68 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.67 | $12,500 | 1.09 |
| Khalil Herbert | CHI | RB | 12.62 | $6,800 | $10,200 | 1.86 | $11,000 | 1.15 |
| Alexander Mattison | MIN | RB | 11.37 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.54 | $10,500 | 1.08 |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | 10.43 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.68 | $10,000 | 1.04 |
| K.J. Osborn | MIN | WR | 9.56 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 1.71 | $8,000 | 1.20 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | RB | 8.46 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 2.82 | $7,500 | 1.13 |
| Greg Joseph | MIN | K | 7.59 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.52 | $9,000 | 0.84 |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | WR | 7.17 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.49 | $8,000 | 0.90 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | K | 6.92 | $4,600 | $6,900 | 1.50 | $9,000 | 0.77 |
| Brandon Powell | MIN | WR | 6.77 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 3.39 | $7,500 | 0.90 |
| Ty Chandler | MIN | RB | 6.69 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 1.15 | $8,500 | 0.79 |
| Vikings | MIN | DST | 6.27 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.43 | $9,500 | 0.66 |
| Bears | CHI | DST | 6.07 | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1.60 | $8,500 | 0.71 |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | TE | 3.13 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 1.20 | $7,000 | 0.45 |
| Tyler Scott | CHI | WR | 3.00 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.50 | $7,000 | 0.43 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | CHI | WR | 2.44 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.53 | $6,500 | 0.38 |
| Robert Tonyan | CHI | TE | 1.58 | $800 | $1,200 | 1.98 | $5,500 | 0.29 |
| N’Keal Harry | MIN | WR | 1.12 | $200 | $300 | 5.60 | $5,500 | 0.20 |
| Johnny Mundt | MIN | TE | 0.76 | $400 | $600 | 1.90 | $5,500 | 0.14 |
| C.J. Ham | MIN | RB | 0.58 | $200 | $300 | 2.90 | $5,500 | 0.11 |
| Marcedes Lewis | CHI | TE | 0.53 | $200 | $300 | 2.65 | $5,000 | 0.11 |
Fantasy Sleepers
K.J. Osborn: $5,600 DK / $8,000 FD
All of the game-log watchers out there are going to see that Osborn only had 2 targets last week and that he only finished with 1.7 fantasy points. However, he ran a route on 95% of dropbacks. We know Dobbs likes to throw to his tight ends, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore his receivers completely. Even in my write-up above, I mentioned that I would rather find the cap space for Addison. This will be a very popular opinion. Ultimately, Osborn is going to be lower owned than he should on a single-game slate.
Vikings vs. Bears Player Pick’em
Roschon Johnson more than 6.5 Receiving Yards (1.80x) – Sleeper
The hot streak came to an end last night with Jalen Guyton, but we’ll look to start a new one with Johnson to get more than 6.5 receiving yards. Perhaps I’m seeing the situation incorrectly, but this is one of my favorite props all season. D’Onta Foreman has been ruled out, and Khalil Herbert has only seen 21 targets all season. Johnson has at least 9 receiving yards in 6 of his last 9 games and should have a bigger role than usual in this one.