NFL DFS High Total Games Report: Week 8
Vegas implied team totals are a solid foundational baseline for NFL DFS scoring opportunity each week. We can often make highly educated assessments on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo! when we properly understand where the betting market sets the NFL odds for each game.
In this article, we’ll open the GridironIQ betting tab and overview some key spots with high betting totals for the week. We’ll look for teams that can provide us high expectations for fantasy point production for the upcoming week. Our projections and projected ownership will be partially influenced by these data points, and we’ll want to be sure we know where the bookmakers stand for each and every game this week.
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Today’s NFL DFS High Total Games Report
Tennessee Titans
Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Game Total: 53.5
Team Total: 29.5
Point Spread: -5.5
MoneyLine: -233
While we still have five games with totals of 50-points or higher this week, there aren’t nearly as many mouth-watering spots as we had in Week 7. The one possible exception may be Tennessee at Cincinnati in a game featuring two of the worst pass defenses in the league. Potentially an obstacle to this game turning into a shootout is the fact that this is a prime spot for the big dog Derrick Henry to absolutely eat, which could result in the Titans playing at a slower situation neutral pace than they have been as of late. If the Titans do throw, A.J Brown is the likeliest candidate for a big receiving game.
Joe Burrow is coming off a huge 406-yard, 4-touchdown (3 passing, 1 rushing) performance and may be one of the highest owned quarterbacks of the week. Cincinnati’s inability to stop anyone defensively has led to gaudy totals for their passing game this season and it seems unlikely they’ll be able to stop Tennessee from scoring this week. Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green both topped double-digit targets in Week 7 and Tee Higgins buoyed his fantasy production by finding the end zone. All three are viable stack candidates with Burrow. If Joe Mixon remains sidelined, Giovani Bernard is another potential game stack candidate.
Seattle Seahawks
Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
Game Total: 53
Team Total: 28
Point Spread: -3
MoneyLine: -146
Seattle Seahawks games have been a fantasy goldmine all season long and I fully expect this to be one of the most heavily targeted games of the week. Tyler Lockett was Week 7’s high scorer with a ridiculous 15-catch, 200-yard, 3-touchdown performance and ownership will likely follow him again this week. D.K. Metcalf is the other playable Seattle pass-catcher that has a high upside on a weekly basis. We’ll need to monitor the Seahawks injury report as some combination of Carlos Hyde (Q), Travis Homer, and Deejay Dallas will split backfield touches in this game.
Finally getting healthy on defense, the 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel and top Week 7 performer Jeff Wilson. The 49ers backfield usage is likely to be a bit ambiguous heading into Week 8 but Jerick McKinnon is likely to lead the way followed by Jamycal Hasty. This is an elite spot for George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk should see an increased target share as well. Kendrick Bourne has had a tough season but is a decent matchup driven value play.
Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Minnesota Vikings
Game Total: 52.5
Team Total: 29.5
Point Spread: -6.5
MoneyLine: -307
Green Bay made the High Total Games Report last week and while the game fell short of the 57.5-point total, the Packers produced plenty of fantasy goodness thanks to Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams. The Packers offense is very DFS friendly as so much of the production is concentrated between Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and whoever is starting at running back. Williams got the start last week for GB with Jones sidelined and immediately stepped into fantasy relevance. Despite an increase in price tag, Williams is another strong fantasy start this week if Jones remains out.
While the Vikings production has been more spread out this season it is still clear who we should be starting in lineups where you’re stacking this game: Dalvin Cook (if active) and one of Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson. Thielen put up a big 6-110-2 stat line against the Packers in Week 1 with much of his production coming in garbage time. Jefferson was playing behind Bisi Johnson to start the season which explains why he only had two catches for 26-yards.
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