NFL DFS Picks and Analysis - Week 5: The Grind Down - Titans vs. Bills
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, a fantasy football advice article for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. This DFS breakdown is an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the projections, projected ownership, picks, targets, and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down with a DFS-first mentality. Betting lines are shown with projected team totals, spreads, and moneyline to give you an idea of the game environment. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. At the end of each section, we’ll deliver a DFS cheat sheet of stacks to build, players to target, and low projected ownership plays that can make an impact on your weekly success.
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Tennessee Titans DFS Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | $9,800 | $15,000 | $30 | 17.44 | QB19 | 32.90 | 270.00 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| Derrick Henry | TEN | $11,000 | $14,500 | $33 | 18.8 | RB8 | 85.00% | 10.00% |
| Darrynton Evans | TEN | $1,000 | $6,000 | $10 | 2.08 | RB72 | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| Jeremy McNichols | TEN | $200 | $0 | $10 | 0.91 | RB77 | 3.00% | 1.00% |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| A.J. Brown | TEN | $8,800 | $11,500 | $23 | 15.31 | WR17 | 27.00% | 9.54 |
| Kalif Raymond | TEN | $4,800 | $8,000 | $10 | 8.88 | WR64 | 16.00% | 5.65 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN | $200 | $5,000 | $10 | 5.32 | WR88 | 9.50% | 3.36 |
| Chester Rogers | TEN | $200 | $5,000 | 0.3 | WR147 | 0.50% | 0.18 | |
| Cody Hollister | TEN | $200 | $5,000 | 0.3 | WR147 | 0.50% | 0.18 | |
| Jonnu Smith | TEN | $7,200 | $10,500 | $21 | 12.32 | TE8 | 20.50% | 7.24 |
| MyCole Pruitt | TEN | $200 | $5,000 | $10 | 2.13 | TE53 | 4.00% | 1.41 |
Injuries to Monitor
WR – A.J. Brown – Questionable
WR – Corey Davis – Presumed Out (COVID-19)
WR – Adam Humphries – Presumed Out (COVID-19)
Running Game Outlook
Derrick Henry currently ranks sixth in the NFL in carries. The Titans have played three games. Every other player ranked inside in the top twelve has played five games. That is remarkable. When this game ends, he could lead the league in carries despite having played one fewer game than all the other leaders.
The Titans simply love to lean on Henry, as he has touched the ball at least 25 times in every single game this season. His workload is safer than any other back in the NFL.
The biggest question here is whether or not we NEED to prioritize Henry on a single game showdown slate in a difficult matchup against Buffalo. On a per touch basis, Henry’s production hasn’t quite been to the level that it was a year ago. He currently sits just under four yards per carry after averaging over five yards per carry in 2019. That’s a significant dip, though we must be careful about drawing too many conclusions away from a three game sample. It is at least some cause for concern.
As for the matchup, Buffalo’s rush defense has graded out as an average unit so far this season. They have allowed just 101 yards per game on the ground, but they have allowed four rushing touchdowns in four games along with a 4.4 opposing yards per carry average. The Titans will likely look to control the clock early to keep the ball away from Josh Allen, meaning that Henry should get a ton of touches early in the game.
All told, I think you can make a case for going underweight on Henry in tournaments. He is going to be massive chalk and is an obvious captain/MVP choice. He almost needs to be played for the block in cash games, but GPP’s on these single game slates are often won by those who commit to bold choices. Can you “X” out Henry completely if you are building 100 lineups? I don’t think I would be that bold, but taking a moderate underweight stance compared to the field is completely reasonable.
Passing Game Outlook
On the surface, this would seem like a spot that most would like to ignore, and many likely would on a full slate. However, we do not have that luxury on a short slate. Volume is certainly the biggest question here, as Tennessee will certainly look to establish the run as much as they can. The good news is that there is a glimmer of hope here, particularly if the Titans happen to fall behind. The Bills have been a bit vulnerable through the air this season, allowing 280 yards per game — a mark that is fourth worst in the league. Some of that is attributable to game flow, but they also rank merely average in most advanced metrics as well. In addition, there is a chance that Tre’Davious White might not be able to play in this game. That would be a big blow to the team’s secondary.
If we do want to target some pieces from the passing game, where should we look? Let’s take a peek at Ryan Tannehill and his target distribution through three games:
Jonnu Smith – 20 (13/181/3)
Adam Humphries – 20 (15/136/1)
Corey Davis – 19 (15/206/1)
A.J. Brown has only played in one game, where he saw eight targets and posted a 5/39 line. Nobody else on the team has more than eight targets on the season.
The good news here is that the targets are generally concentrated among just a handful of players. In addition, both Humphries and Davis are sidelined with COVID-19 right now. If A.J. Brown plays, he is going to see a massive target share — and don’t forget the possibility that White might not play as the best corner on the other side. If Brown plays, he is one of the highest upside options on this slate.
The question becomes what on earth we do if Brown sits. The Titans will be in a massive hole without their top three wide receivers in this case. Jonnu Smith would be an elite option as one of the last pass catchers standing, while we could look to a punt play like or Kalif Raymond — but neither is super appealing.
In summary, we need to wait on Brown (and Tre’Davious White) news. If Brown is in, he is a great play. If Brown is out, Jonnu Smith is a great play, and we can perhaps target a punt option.
Strong Projections: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown (if active)
High Upside Correlations: Ryan Tannehill + A.J. Brown and/or Jonnu Smith
Strong GPP Differentiators: Jonnu Smith
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Kalif Raymond (if Brown is out)
My Expected Team Exposure: Medium
Buffalo Bills Projections Breakdown
Team Projections
| QB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjAtt | ProjYds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | $13,000 | $16,000 | $37 | 23.01 | QB6 | 37.35 | 275.00 |
| RB | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjRu% | ProjTar% |
| Devin Singletary | BUF | $8,000 | $12,000 | $17 | 13.45 | RB23 | 51% | 8% |
| Zack Moss | BUF | $2,600 | $7,500 | $14 | 4.59 | RB56 | 25% | 1% |
| Taiwan Jones | BUF | $200 | $5,000 | $10 | 0.12 | RB85 | 0% | |
| WR/TE | Team | DKSal | FDSal | YHSal | Proj | Rank | ProjTar% | ProjTar |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | $10,600 | $13,500 | $27 | 17.26 | WR11 | 26% | 9.83 |
| John Brown | BUF | $5,800 | $10,000 | $17 | 12.08 | WR38 | 19% | 7.32 |
| Cole Beasley | BUF | $6,800 | $9,500 | $14 | 10.21 | WR49 | 16% | 6.17 |
| Gabriel Davis | BUF | $4,600 | $8,500 | $13 | 6.56 | WR77 | 11% | 4.24 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | BUF | $800 | $6,500 | $10 | 2.94 | WR104 | 5% | 1.93 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | $3,400 | $6,500 | $11 | 5.5 | TE29 | 9% | 3.47 |
| Tyler Kroft | BUF | $2,000 | $6,000 | $12 | 3.05 | TE46 | 6% | 2.12 |
Injuries to Monitor
WR – John Brown – Questionable
WR – Andre Roberts – Questionable
RB – Zack Moss – Questionable
CB – Tre’Davious White – Questionable
Running Game Outlook
At the beginning of the season, this looked to be a virtual time share between Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. That has unraveled over the past two weeks with Moss sidelined due to injury. In each of those games, Singletary has stepped up and played on 89% of the team’s offensive snaps. What has he done with those extra snaps? It’s a mixed bag. He posted a respectable 121 total yards against the Rams and finally found the end zone against the Raiders, but he tallied just 56 yards on 18 carries in that Las Vegas game.
The positive news is that Singletary has been very involved in the passing game with 21 targets on the season, and he seems to have a firm grasp on the RB1 job in Buffalo even if Moss happens to return this week. There’s always the risk that Josh Allen could vulture some goal line touchdowns, but that is a minor concern on a single game slate. In addition, the Titans have been gashed for 166 yards per game on the ground through their first three contests, and those came against the Broncos, Jaguars, and Vikings, teams that have won a combined three games so far this season.
Singletary is a rock solid play here, particularly if you are looking to fade Henry in hopes that game flow produces an early Buffalo lead in this game.
Passing Game Outlook:
What a season it has been already for Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. Here are Allen’s game logs so far in 2020:
Week 1 vs. Jets – 33-for-46, 312 yards, 2 TD / 14 rushes, 57 yards, TD
Week 2 vs. Dolphins – 24-for-35, 415 yards, 4 TD / 4 rushes, 19 yards
Week 3 vs. Rams – 24-for-33, 311 yards, 4 TD / 4 rushes, 8 yards, TD
Week 4 vs. Raiders – 24-for-34, 288 yards, 2 TD / 3 rushes, 0 yards, TD
Averages – 26-for-37, 332 yards, 3 TD / 5 rushes, 21 yards, TD
The rushing production has dipped a bit in recent weeks, but the ability for him to account for scores both on the ground and through the air is obviously there.
As for his targets, Stefon Diggs is the clear WR1 here, with 35 targets in the first four games and an average of 100+ receiving yards per game. Cole Beasley has a limited ceiling but could be looking at more targets if John Brown happens to sit. Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie would join the Showdown Slate punt radar as well. If Brown is active, he is a risk/reward option that is perfect for GPP’s on a short slate. Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft are touchdown dependent TE punt plays. The matchup is reasonable against a mediocre secondary that might also be missing some depth pieces because of Tennessee’s COVID outbreak.
Strong Projections: Devin Singletary, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
High Upside Correlations: Devin Singletary + BUF D (DK), Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs (and possibly John Brown if he is active)
Strong GPP Differentiators: None
Roster Construction Punts/Values: Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Gabriel Davis (if Brown sits)
My Expected Team Exposure: High