NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 4
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS advice for this week’s main slate by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or SquirrelPatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 4
Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:
| Analyst | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | Rank 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notorious | Diontae Johnson | Breece Hall | Nico Collins |
| SquirrelPatrol | Diontae Johnson | Chuba Hubbard | Nico Collins |
| Stevietpfl | Diontae Johnson | Nico Collins | Najee Harris |
| Krayton | Diontae Johnson | Rashee Rice | Chuba Hubbard |
| ebeimfohr | Chuba Hubbard | Diontae Johnson | Rashee Rice |
| ncorfield8k | Diontae Johnson | Nico Collins | Jayden Daniels |
| Davis Mattek | Rashee Rice | Najee Harris | Jayden Daniels |
What is your favorite correlation and why?
Notorious: Breece Hall + Jets D/ST – Even though the Broncos have been solid defensively to start the season, they have been susceptible to the run. They have allowed 4.4 yards per carry, they are 27th in PFF’s run grades, and they are 18th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Hall has averaged 21.6 opportunities per game this season and has a target share of 20% (highest of any running back in the NFL). It’s a classic spot for a running back too, as the Jets are 7-point home favorites. The Jets’ defense has played well the last couple of weeks and should be able to force some turnovers with Bo Nix under center. He did play well last week but struggled mightily in his first two NFL starts.
SquirrelPatrol: Kyler Murray + Brian Robinson + Marvin Harrison – The WAS/ARI game is the best environment on the slate, featuring the highest total of the week, two running QBs, and a close spread. It will be difficult to choose between Kyler and Jayden Daniels, and one of my favorite ways to work this game into my lineups is by pairing each QB with his top WR along with the RB from the opposing team. Robinson should see additional work with Austin Ekeler out, while Harrison has seen his price jump since last week but still may be too cheap facing a Commanders defense who has allowed the 2nd-most passing yards in the NFL.
Stevietpfl: C.J. Stroud + Nico Collins – I like both quarterbacks in the WAS/ARI game, but I think Stroud has a similar ceiling at much lower projected ownership. This is the best matchup Stroud has had this season, and he’s coming off his worst game of 2024. I’m looking for Stroud and this Houston offense to get back on track against Jacksonville. Houston has thrown 64.5% of the time, which is the 9th highest through the first 3 games. They’ve thrown 68.5% of the time in the 1st half, which is the highest in the NFL. Collins has run a route on 84.5% of the team’s dropbacks and leads the team with a 29.7% first-read rate. He also has a 13.3 aDOT and 44.6% of the team’s air yards. Tank Dell is unlikely to play, which is even more of a bump for Collins. I’ll mix up my Jacksonville run-backs, but I plan on being overweight on Stroud + Collins.
Krayton: C.J. Stroud + Nico Collins – This game could be one of the best on the slate, and I think we finally see the Stroud breakout game we have been looking for. The Jags lead the league in man-coverage rate, and Collins is one of the best against man coverage. Tank Dell is trending toward not playing, so we should see even more targets headed to Collins. Tyreek Hill put up 7 receptions for 130 yards and a TD in Week 1 against the Jags, and Collins should have a great opportunity to put up similar numbers. With Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce likely out again this week, we will likely see more of Cam Akers, which has me even more interested in getting heavy exposure to Houston’s pass catchers, including Stefon Diggs.
Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our PrizePicks promo code and Underdog Fantasy promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.
ebeimfohr: Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin + Marvin Harrison – I suspect most will play this game through the Kyler Murray side with his pass catchers, and while I’m a big fan of that too, I’m going to keep attacking Daniels + McLaurin at lower projected ownership. McLaurin hasn’t had the box score results until last week, but Daniels has just missed him for 3 separate long TDs, and we can see his insane role under the hood with a 57% air-yards share and one of the top Weighted Opportunity Ratings (WOPR) in the entire NFL. Daniels brings some of the highest rushing upside in the NFL at a still affordable price, and with Trey McBride out, we should get monster volume for Harrison on the other side in an elite matchup.
ncorfield8k: Trevor Lawrence + Christian Kirk + Brenton Strange + Nico Collins – Lawrence and the Jaguars looked awful on Monday night in a 47-10 loss to the Bills. Lawrence had his worst quarterback rating of the season in that game, and one of his worst in the past two years. Recency bias should lead to virtually zero ownership on Lawrence despite a much better matchup with an exploitable Texans secondary and a game environment that should be conducive to a lot of passing. Strange has been targeted 12 times over the past 2 games while filling in for Evan Engram, and Kirk gets the nod over Brian Thomas by a hair because he’s cheaper and projects better.
Davis Mattek: Kyler Murray + Elijah Higgins – While Marvin Harrison is going to get all of the headlines this week, I think fantasy gamers are going to miss one of the better values in tournaments, which is finding correlation at TE at semi-low projected ownership. Higgins was a WR in college at Stanford and has run more routes than the other TE who is going to fill in (Tip Reiman, who is a pure blocker). Kyler is my favorite QB play of the week, and correlating him with a $3,100 tight end feels like a huge edge versus the field if the field is choosing to play MHJ or Terry McLaurin in Kyler lineups.
Who’s your favorite contrarian play (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
