NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 7
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS advice for this week’s main slate by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or SquirrelPatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 7
Rank your three favorite players for cash games, in order:
| Analyst | Rank 1 | Rank 2 | Rank 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notorious | Tony Pollard | Chuba Hubbard | Geno Smith |
| SquirrelPatrol | Drake London | Chuba Hubbard | Tony Pollard |
| Stevietpfl | Kyren Williams | Chuba Hubbard | Brock Bowers |
| Krayton | Kyren Williams | Chuba Hubbard | Tony Pollard |
| ebeimfohr | Kyren Williams | Chuba Hubbard | Tony Pollard |
| ncorfield8k | Chuba Hubbard | Drake London | Colby Parkinson |
| Davis Mattek | Chuba Hubbard | Grant Calcaterra | Drake London |
What is your favorite correlation and why?
Notorious: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf – The Seahawks are 1st in the NFL in both pass rate and pass rate above expectation. The latter is more important because it factors in game script. Under new OC Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks want to air it out regardless of the score. Geno has averaged 42 pass attempts per game this season and only has 5 touchdowns. His touchdown per attempt rate is 31st among 34 eligible quarterbacks. He has some positive touchdown regression coming his way. I like pairing him with DK Metcalf, who has the 4th-highest expected fantasy points per game of any receiver on the slate. We shouldn’t be scared of a matchup against AJ Terrell, as quarterbacks are completing 83% of passes thrown his way this season.
SquirrelPatrol: Sam Darnold + Justin Jefferson – Jefferson is the most expensive FLEX player available on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he will still be the first player I’m looking to get into my lineups. The DET/MIN game is 1 of 3 games on the slate with a total of over 50 points and has the closest spread among those games. The game will be indoors, and the Vikings will be facing a Detroit team that just lost their best defensive player to injury. The Lions have allowed the 3rd-most receptions per game this season, and the Vikings have allowed the most receptions per game, so this entire game environment could take off. Jefferson has 124 receiving yards or more in 6 of his last 7 games against the Lions.
Stevietpfl: Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Drake London – Seattle has thrown the ball 70.6% of the time, which is the highest in the NFL through the first 6 weeks of the season. Geno has thrown for at least 280 passing yards in all but 1 game this season. He’s yet to have a multi-touchdown game, but this is a great spot for him. I’ve been targeting receivers against A.J. Terrell all season, and I’m not going to stop this week. Terrell has shadowed 4 times this season. He allowed 85 yards to George Pickens, 69 yards to DeVonta Smith, 62 yards to Mike Evans, and 78 yards to Diontae Johnson. Metcalf is averaging 78.2 receiving yards per game, which is the 7th most in the NFL. He has accounted for 42.5% of the team’s air yards and has a 25.5% first-read rate. London has a 26% target rate, and he’s been the first read 37% of the time this season. London has at least 6 catches and 60 yards in 4 straight games.
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Krayton: Sam Darnold + Justin Jefferson + Jameson Williams – This is going to be a great game environment, with two high implied team totals and a spread of just 1.5 points. The Lions will also be without their top pass rusher, Aidan Hutchinson. This should make things much easier for both Darnold and Jefferson, and we have seen Jefferson have great success against the Lions in the past. This should be a popular game. However, QB ownership tends to get spread out. I like Williams on the other side with his big-play potential, and he is much cheaper than Amon-Ra St. Brown.
ebeimfohr: Andy Dalton + Jalen Coker – There isn’t a ton of super appealing salary relief, and Washington has been a feeding frenzy for opposing offenses. The Commanders can score on anyone, and they play fast, but their defense is one of the worst in the league. The Panthers probably have the actual worst defense in the league, which should lead to a ton of opportunity for Panthers stacks to try to keep up in a high-scoring affair. Dalton has been solid, but Coker has continued to elevate each week both in snaps and production in a Panthers WR room that desperately needs some juice alongside Diontae Johnson, and they will really need it this week to try to hang with Washington.
ncorfield8k: Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin + Diontae Johnson – It’s probably the most obvious game stack on the slate, but ownership projections are still very reasonable. Daniels has been incredible all season and should have an easy time against the Panthers defense. They have given up the 4th-most yards per game to opponents this season. Johnson has been targeted 43 times in 3 games with Andy Dalton, and that will likely continue against a Commanders defense that has given up the 11th-most yards per game opponents.
Davis Mattek: Jordan Love + Jayden Reed – The HOU/GB total is not quite as high as I thought, and players from the game project well but not great. Reed has one of the higher ceiling projections on the slate in LineupHQ but is basically just getting lost in the noise of what should be a high-scoring slate. The Packers allow Love to continue throwing when they are up 10+ points, and he has been a top-5 EPA QB this season. It just feels like a sweet spot of pOWN% and ceiling on two of the best players at their respective positions.
Who’s your favorite contrarian play (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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