NFL DFS Expert Survey: Week 12
Our panel of experts is here to give you their NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Noto’s three favorite players for cash games? Or squirrelpatrol’s favorite correlation? Find out below!
NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for Week 12
What is your favorite correlation on the slate and why?
Notorious: Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs and/or Dalton Kincaid – I know it was only against the Jets, but it was good to see the Bills dominate in a game that they were supposed to. The advanced metrics (especially EPA and success rate) have loved this team all season, but they have lost in some strange ways. Anyway, this is a roundabout way of saying I like their chances against the Eagles. And the matchup sets up extremely well for the passing game. On the season, Philadelphia ranks 1st in fantasy points allowed to running backs, while allowing the 4th most to quarterbacks, the most to wide receivers, and the 4th most to tight ends. If the Bills are going to win this game, it will be thanks to Allen and the passing attack.
squirrelpatrol: Gardner Minshew + Michael Pittman – This is a close call between the Colts and Bills, but for the price, I’ll have some interest in using the Colts stack with Minshew and Pittman and adding higher-cost pieces from other games along with it. Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd-most passing yards per game in the NFL, and after some tougher passing game matchups against Cleveland, Carolina, and New Orleans, this Colts passing game is both cheap and high-upside.
Krayton: C.J. Stroud + Tank Dell and/or Nico Collins – Stroud had this matchup back on September 24th, and he had 280 yards and 2 TDs with over 20 fantasy points. Since then, he has put up great numbers along with Dell and Collins. Dell had 5 receptions for 145 yards in a TD in this matchup, and the Jags secondary will have a tough time stopping this offense, which continues to put up big numbers week after week. On the Jags side, I like getting to Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram. They have the 2nd-highest total on the slate, and I will be looking to stack this game in a variety of ways.
ebeimfohr: Desmond Ridder + Drake London – I’ve been a noted Falcons truther, and it’s clearly been hit or miss this year. But Ridder is back at QB, and he’s shown upside of nearly 30 fantasy points for less than $5,000 this week. The game will be played in a dome, and the Saints have historically been a tougher matchup for run games. That should be even more pronounced this week with the Saints not having Marshon Lattimore in their secondary. That should allow Drake London to feast on lesser corners at just $5,000 on DK, and this stack allows us to save a ton of money to afford the studs from other games around it in our lineups.
Stevietpfl: Gardner Minshew + Michael Pittman + Mike Evans – Jonathan Taylor is projected to be one of the highest-owned running backs, and while I like him, I think the passing game is a way to get different in this game. Tampa is allowing the 2nd-most passing yards per game. They rank 20th in DOVA against the pass, but they’re 3rd in DVOA against the run. Pittman has at least 8 targets in 4 of his last 5 games, and 3 of those games he has at least 12 targets. With Evans playing on the outside for most of his snaps, he draws the best matchup of the Tampa receivers. Evans has scored a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 games. This game has a lot of upside, and best of all, it’s being played inside on the fast track.
eys819: Jalen Hurts + DeVonta Smith + Dalton Kincaid – Stevie already wrote up my favorite correlation, so rather than be redundant, I will give another one of my favorites. Hurts has as much upside as any QB on the slate thanks to his rushing upside, but his passing upside is often underrated. Pivoting from AJ Brown to Smith can gain you leverage on the field and save a little salary. Smith has plenty of upside with Dallas Goedert out again. The Bills defense is dealing with multiple injuries, including top remaining CB Dane Jackson being ruled out with a concussion. Tre’Davious White, Kaiir Elam, DaQuan Jones, and Matt Milano all remain on IR. Running it back with Dalton Kincaid is more cost effective than Stefon Diggs and fills the TE position. Kincaid has had a massive role since Dawson Knox went to IR, with at least 6 targets in each of the last 5 games.
Bobby Gomes: C.J. Stroud + Tank Dell and/or Nico Collins + Travis Etienne – Stroud shredded the Jaguars’ weak secondary in Week 3, and it has been downhill for them ever since. Both QBs in this game are firmly in play and so are the pass catchers (including Evan Engram and Dalton Schultz) and run games. This is a game we can stack fully with it having the 2nd-highest total on the slate.
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board (below 10% pOWN%) and why?
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