The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Chiefs vs. Jaguars
For this Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup on 10/6 featuring the Chiefs vs. Jaguars, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Chiefs vs. Jaguars
My Jaguars rarely get a primetime game that isn’t on a Thursday night, so I’m pumped for this one. They are off to a great start this season, as they boast a 3-1 record with a +26 point differential. If not for a late collapse against the Bengals, they could be 4-0. The Chiefs picked up a huge win last week against the Ravens to climb back to .500 on the season. The odds of making the playoffs are never good after falling to 1-3. It’s safe to say that both of these teams have playoff aspirations.
The game features a 3.5-point spread and a 45.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Rashee Rice – Out
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes is having his best fantasy season in quite some time. This is due to several factors, but basically, it all stems from the Chiefs not being as dominant on defense and in the running game. They’ve been a run-heavy team the last few years, but they are 2nd in pass rate over expectation this season. Mahomes has already topped 23 fantasy points three times, which is a mark he only reached four times all last season. The Jaguars’ advanced metrics look good (3rd in EPA allowed per dropback), but they have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Kansas City’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Xavier Worthy (Week 4): 62% route participation, 22% target share, 60% air yards share
- Hollywood Brown: 75% route participation, 21% target share, 23% air yards share
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 70% route participation, 11% target share, 8% air yards share
- Travis Kelce: 75% route participation, 16% target share, 10% air yards share
In his first full game of the season, Xavier Worthy saw 22% of the team’s targets and 60% of the team’s air yards. He turned his 7 touches into 121 yards from scrimmage last week against the Ravens. We’ll likely see him run a few more routes against the Jaguars, who have given up big fantasy outings to opposing WR1s this season (such as Ja’Marr Chase and Nico Collins). Worthy is right there with Mahomes as my favorite target at MVP and CPT. Hollywood Brown only ran a route on 50% of dropbacks with Worthy back in the lineup last week. It’s a good matchup, but it’s hard to prioritize him at his current price point.
JuJu Smith-Schuster will continue to man the slot, while Tyquan Thornton should still be an occasional deep threat. The Jaguars can certainly give up big plays, so I don’t mind keeping Thornton in your player pool for large-field tournaments. Travis Kelce doesn’t have the most appealing usage metrics (16% target share, 10% air yards share) and is priced at a bit of a premium. The Jaguars have also been much better at defending tight ends (14th) than wide receivers (22nd) this season.
Based on the season usage and the Week 4 usage, it looks like we are going to have a timeshare in the Chiefs’ backfield for quite some time. Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have been splitting most of the running back touches, but now Brashard Smith has entered the chat room. He played on 26% of snaps last week against the Ravens and saw 4 rush attempts and 4 targets. If all of these players are going to get touches, good luck trying to figure out which one to play in DFS. It’s not a great matchup anyway, as the Jaguars are 11th or better in EPA against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Chiefs have gotten a decent amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season, but the Jaguars have had one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines. I would only play their defense in large-field tournaments. Harrison Butker is viable, as the Chiefs have had to settle for a field goal attempt 13 times in the first 4 games of the season.
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Jacksonville Jaguars Preview
Trevor Lawrence has been held under 12 fantasy points in 3 of the first 4 games of the season, yet the Jaguars are 3-1 in the standings. This shows how good their running game and their defense have been to open the season (a soft schedule has certainly helped too). Lawrence is averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, which is currently 37th among quarterbacks who have seen action so far this season. I’m not forcing him into my Showdown lineups, as the Chiefs have been elite against the pass this season — 4th in PFF’s pass defense grades, 7th in EPA per dropback allowed, and 8th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Jacksonville’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Brian Thomas: 84% route participation, 22% target share, 36% air yards share
- Parker Washington: 45% route participation, 13% target share, 18% air yards share
- Travis Hunter: 63% route participation, 15% target share, 15% air yards share
- Brenton Strange: 66% route participation, 16% target share, 13% air yards share
It’s been a rough season for Brian Thomas. He has yet to top 60 yards or score a touchdown in any of the first 4 games. The difference between his actual output and his expected fantasy points per game is one of the biggest of any receiver in the league. Basically, the underlying usage has been there, but the production has not. It’s hard to stomach paying $10,200 for him in a matchup against the Chiefs, who are 9th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Travis Hunter has run a route on 63% of dropbacks and has spent a lot of time in the slot. He’s yet to have a big fantasy outing, but he’s seen at least 5 targets in 3 of his first 4 NFL games. I’ll take the discount and prioritize him over Thomas. Parker Washington and Dyami Brown will both see snaps at receiver as well. They are cheap enough that they deserve consideration in tournaments. Brenton Strange has been a major part of the offense, soaking up 16% of the team’s targets. With that said, it’s not a great matchup for him either, as the Chiefs have allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Everyone was ready to crown Bhayshul Tuten as the RB1 in Jacksonville this offseason, but Travis Etienne said, “Not so fast.” He’s looked tremendous in the first 4 games of the season. He’s played on 62% of the snaps, he’s averaged 18.5 opportunities per game, and he has racked up 426 yards from scrimmage. The Chiefs are most vulnerable against the run, as they are 30th in PFF’s rush defense grades and 31st in EPA against the run. I rarely prioritize a running back over a quarterback in Showdown, but that’s exactly what I’m doing with Etienne and Lawrence on this slate. If you think the Jaguars can have a ton of success on the ground, Bhayshul Tuten is worth a look in large-field tournaments.
Jacksonville’s defense is the main reason why they are 3-1 on the season. However, they haven’t gotten much pressure on the quarterback, while Kansas City’s offensive line has done a nice job of protecting Mahomes. I prefer going the kicker route with Cam Little over the Jaguars’ defense.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This game is shaping up to be a fun one. Patrick Mahomes is a core play for both cash games and tournaments. His rushing upside and newfound high floor make him one of the most intriguing MVP/CPT targets. Xavier Worthy is the Chiefs’ pass catcher I want to prioritize on this slate. He’s going to have a huge role in this offense until Rashee Rice can return to the lineup. On Jacksonville’s side, I have the most faith in Travis Etienne. The Chiefs have been one of the best run-funnel matchups in the NFL this season. I don’t expect to have any exposure to the defenses in this game, but I do like both kickers (would lean to Harrison Butker if choosing between the two).
Chiefs vs. Jaguars DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 21.90 | $10,600 | 2.07 | $13,800 | 1.59 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 16.23 | $9,200 | 1.76 | $11,200 | 1.45 |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 16.21 | $8,800 | 1.84 | $10,600 | 1.53 |
| Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 14.51 | $9,800 | 1.48 | $11,800 | 1.23 |
| Brian Thomas | JAX | WR | 13.63 | $10,200 | 1.34 | $12,600 | 1.08 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 11.19 | $7,600 | 1.47 | $9,200 | 1.22 |
| Hollywood Brown | KC | WR | 9.54 | $7,000 | 1.36 | $7,800 | 1.22 |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | TE | 8.83 | $4,600 | 1.92 | $4,600 | 1.92 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 8.38 | $6,200 | 1.35 | $8,400 | 1.00 |
| Travis Hunter | JAX | WR | 8.19 | $6,600 | 1.24 | $4,800 | 1.71 |
| Cam Little | JAX | K | 8.13 | $5,000 | 1.63 | $6,800 | 1.20 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 8.09 | $5,400 | 1.50 | $7,200 | 1.12 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 8.05 | $4,200 | 1.92 | $5,200 | 1.55 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 7.85 | $4,800 | 1.64 | $6,000 | 1.31 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 6.73 | $4,400 | 1.53 | $6,600 | 1.02 |
| Parker Washington | JAX | WR | 6.63 | $3,600 | 1.84 | $5,000 | 1.33 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 5.78 | $2,400 | 2.41 | $3,400 | 1.70 |
| Dyami Brown | JAX | WR | 5.71 | $2,000 | 2.86 | $4,000 | 1.43 |
| Jaguars | JAX | DST | 5.44 | $4,000 | 1.36 | $6,200 | 0.88 |
| Brashard Smith | KC | RB | 4.77 | $3,200 | 1.49 | $3,000 | 1.59 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | RB | 4.34 | $2,800 | 1.55 | $5,600 | 0.78 |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | WR | 3.37 | $5,200 | 0.65 | $7,400 | 0.46 |
| Hunter Long | JAX | TE | 1.78 | $1,600 | 1.11 | $2,000 | 0.89 |
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 5-7
Xavier Worthy more than 64.5 rushing + receiving yards (1.70x) – Sleeper Fantasy
In his first game back from injury, the Chiefs forced the ball to Xavier Worthy. He caught 5-of-8 targets for 83 yards and had 2 carries for 38 yards. The Chiefs haven’t been able to get anything going on the ground this season, so we can expect Worthy to get a few carries each game moving forward. He draws a nice matchup against the Jaguars, who have struggled to defend opposing WR1s this season. They gave up huge outings to both Ja’Marr Chase (14/165/1) and Nico Collins (8/104/1). I prefer the rushing + receiving play over strictly receiving, as Worthy could easily break off another long run.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus