The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Lions vs. Ravens
For this Week 3 Monday Night Football matchup on 9/22 featuring the Lions vs. Ravens, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Lions vs. Ravens
Week 3 has been kind so far, so let’s keep it going on Monday night. After a dud of a football game on Sunday night, we should have some fireworks in store this evening. The Lions and Ravens have two of the best offenses in the NFL, and both teams are looking to get back above .500 on the season. The Lions lost their opener against the Packers but bounced back with a massive win over the Bears, while the Ravens lost their opener against the Bills but took care of business against the Browns.
Tonight’s game features a 4.5-point spread and a 53.5-point total. Let’s dive into this Showdown slate.
Key Injuries
Isaiah Likely – Out
Patrick Ricard – Out
Detroit Lions Preview
In hindsight, the Lions’ domination of the Bears at home in Week 2 should have been obvious. They’ve had one of the best offenses in the NFL over the last few years and were coming off a bad loss against the Packers in Green Bay. A lot has been made about the home/road splits for Jared Goff in his career, but his splits with and without pressure are even more glaring. He’s a completely different quarterback when he has time in the pocket. The Ravens do have an elite pass rush, but they will be without Kyle Van Noy for the next few games. Goff is a strong UTIL/AnyFLEX target, but there are better options at MVP/CPT.
Detroit’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 92% route participation, 24% target share, 33% air yards share
- Jameson Williams : 96% route participation, 13% target share, 35% air yards share
- Kalif Raymond: 60% route participation, 6% target share, 9% air yards share
- Sam LaPorta: 79% route participation, 19% target share, 15% air yards share
Amon-Ra St. Brown had a massive outing against the Bears, catching 9 of 11 targets for 115 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s run 55% of his routes from the slot this season, which gives him a high floor/ceiling combo each week. With the Lions being underdogs, St. Brown is likely to see double-digit targets against the Ravens. Jameson Williams has only seen 13% of the team’s targets, yet he leads all Detroit wideouts in air yards. He’s a strong tournament option, but his range of outcomes is wider than most players on this slate.
Kalif Raymond has a 60% route participation this season, but Isaac TeSlaa is quickly entering WR3 territory. He ran a route on 41% of dropbacks in Week 2 against the Bears. TeSlaa is one of my favorite value plays on the board. Sam LaPorta is 2nd on the team in target share and has run a route on 79% of dropbacks this season. We are still very early into the season, but no team has allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than the Ravens.
In a game where the Lions are road underdogs, this certainly sets up better for Jahmyr Gibbs than it does for David Montgomery. Through the first 2 games, this has not been the 50/50 split that we’ve seen in the past. Gibbs has played on 61% of the snaps and has averaged 17 opportunities per game, while Montgomery has played on 38% of the snaps and has averaged 13 opportunities per game (very few targets). D-Mont could always get there with a couple of goal-line opportunities, but I am certainly prioritizing Gibbs over him.
The Lions lost their defensive coordinator and haven’t looked nearly as dominant in the first 2 games. I’ll take my chances with a fade of them tonight against the Ravens. I liked both kickers last night because I expected a low-scoring game, but that’s not the case tonight. I prefer skill position players over the kickers.
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Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens should have beaten the Bills in Week 1, but they blew a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter. They struggled a bit against the Browns in the first half, but were ultimately able to pull away and pick up their first win of the season. Lamar Jackson has been one of the top-producing quarterbacks in the NFL over the last 5 years, and that’s not going to change anytime soon. Given his rushing upside, he’s the easy click at the multiplier spots (MVP/CPT). The Lions haven’t been able to generate much pressure this season, which only makes Jackson more appealing on this slate.
Baltimore’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Zay Flowers: 89% route participation, 40% target share, 46% air yards share
- Rashod Bateman: 75% route participation, 15% target share, 15% air yards share
- DeAndre Hopkins: 33% route participation, 8% target share, 21% air yards share
- Mark Andrews: 71% route participation, 8% target share, 5% air yards share
Zay Flowers has always had the talent, but this season, he’s had the usage deserving of a WR1. In the first 2 games, he’s seen 40% of the team’s targets and 46% of the team’s air yards. The Lions struggled against wide receivers last season and are in the bottom 10 in EPA against the pass and fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season. Flowers could be the forgotten star in this game, with everyone looking to spend up on the quarterbacks, Gibbs, and St. Brown.
Rashod Bateman is on the field a ton and has seen 15% of the team’s targets. He’s awfully cheap for a player who can catch a long touchdown at any point. The Ravens continue to say they will give more snaps to DeAndre Hopkins. While he’s only run a route on 33% of dropbacks, he’s seen 21% of the team’s targets. When he’s on the field, Jackson is looking for him. With Isaiah Likely still out, I love Nuk as a tournament play. Tylan Wallace and Devontez Walker will only see a handful of snaps and will likely need a touchdown to find their way into the optimal lineup. Mark Andrews was last seen on the side of a milk carton. He continues to project well, but that might lead to inflated ownership.
Derrick Henry has had polar opposite weeks to start his 2025 campaign. He ran for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Bills, but the Browns were able to hold him to 29 rushing yards. The Lions have been better against the run than they have been against the pass the last couple of seasons. When people see the matchup and factor in Henry’s lack of involvement in the passing game, we could see suppressed ownership on him tonight. Anytime Henry is going to be low-owned, he makes for a strong tournament play. If the Ravens are trailing, there’s a path for Justice Hill to make his way into the optimal lineup at a cheap price point.
We only have a certain number of roster spots available. I’m not using them on either of these defenses. The game has a massive total. Tyler Loop is more appealing than John Bates, but I don’t have a ton of interest in these kickers.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a slate where I want as many skill position players in my lineups as possible. I don’t want exposure to the defenses or the kickers. I don’t see this as a good slate for onslaughts, as both offenses should have success in this game. However, I could see a Lamar Jackson MVP/CPT build with a Detroit onslaught working. The thought process is that Jackson does a lot on the ground and doesn’t bring any of his wideouts with him on his way to a big fantasy outing. With that said, I’m mostly focusing on balanced builds. At the MVP/CPT spot, I like Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Zay Flowers.
Lions vs. Ravens DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 24.48 | $11,800 | 2.07 | $12,800 | 1.91 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 18.98 | $10,400 | 1.83 | $11,400 | 1.66 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 18.82 | $10,200 | 1.85 | $13,200 | 1.43 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 17.87 | $9,400 | 1.90 | $11,000 | 1.62 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 17.58 | $10,600 | 1.66 | $11,800 | 1.49 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 17.09 | $8,400 | 2.03 | $9,800 | 1.74 |
| Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 12.86 | $8,000 | 1.61 | $8,400 | 1.53 |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | TE | 11.41 | $5,400 | 2.11 | $6,800 | 1.68 |
| David Montgomery | DET | RB | 10.29 | $6,200 | 1.66 | $7,600 | 1.35 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 9.93 | $4,400 | 2.26 | $6,000 | 1.66 |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | WR | 9.68 | $4,000 | 2.42 | $5,000 | 1.94 |
| Tyler Loop | BAL | K | 9.49 | $5,000 | 1.90 | $6,400 | 1.48 |
| Jake Bates | DET | K | 7.96 | $5,200 | 1.53 | $5,800 | 1.37 |
| Justice Hill | BAL | RB | 6.78 | $2,800 | 2.42 | $3,400 | 1.99 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 5.02 | $4,200 | 1.20 | $6,200 | 0.81 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | BAL | WR | 4.95 | $4,800 | 1.03 | $4,600 | 1.08 |
| Lions | DET | DST | 4.41 | $3,600 | 1.23 | $5,600 | 0.79 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | WR | 3.88 | $1,200 | 3.23 | $3,000 | 1.29 |
| Kalif Raymond | DET | WR | 2.39 | $2,000 | 1.20 | $2,200 | 1.09 |
| Charlie Kolar | BAL | TE | 2.23 | $600 | 3.72 | $1,400 | 1.59 |
| Tylan Wallace | BAL | WR | 1.84 | $3,000 | 0.61 | $3,200 | 0.58 |
| Brock Wright | DET | TE | 1.54 | $2,400 | 0.64 | $1,600 | 0.96 |
| Devontez Walker | BAL | WR | 1.31 | $1,600 | 0.82 | $1,800 | 0.73 |
Lions vs Ravens Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 3-5
Isaac TeSlaa more than 13.5 receiving yards (1.65x) – Sleeper Fantasy
The Lions used the 70th overall draft pick on Isaac TeSlaa. They seem to love him in Detroit, and his role is only going to increase each week. After only running a route on 7% of dropbacks in Week 1, he ran a route on 41% of dropbacks in Week 2. That was a game where Jared Goff only attempted 28 passes. As underdogs on the road against an elite offense, we could see more dropbacks for the Lions this week. If TeSlaa has a similar route participation rate, he could run into 3-5 targets in this game.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus