The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Panthers vs. 49ers
For this Week 12 Monday Night Football matchup on 11/24 featuring the Panthers vs. 49ers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Panthers vs. 49ers
We are back with another Monday Night Football edition of the NFL Grind Down. Thanks to Jameis Winston, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs, it was one of my better main slates of the season. On Monday night, we have a battle between two playoff contenders in the NFC. The Panthers are somehow 6-5 this season and can take over the division lead with a win. The Niners are 7-4 on the season but are currently in 3rd place in the NFC West. This game features a 7-point spread and a 49.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Brandon Aiyuk – Out
Carolina Panthers Preview
Bryce Young put together a very strong second half of last season to put to bed any quarterback controversy heading into the offseason. There’s a chance he’s starting to do that again this season. After a lackluster start in his first 10 games, he threw for 448 yards and 3 touchdowns last week against the Falcons. There are few better matchups than the Niners, who just gave up a record-setting day to Jacoby Brissett last week. They are bottom 8 in both EPA against the pass and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Young hasn’t shown much rushing upside this season, so I prefer him at s FLEX/AnyFlex play rather than a CPT/MVP target.
Carolina’s wideout usage (2025):
- Tetairoa McMillan: 91% route participation, 24% target share, 43% air-yards share
- Xavier Legette: 77% route participation, 15% target share, 25% air-yards share
- Jalen Coker: 69% route participation, 10% target share, 13% air-yards share
- Ja’Tavion Sanders: 50% route participation, 11% target share, 9% air-yards share
With Young throwing for 448 yards last week, it’s no surprise that Tetairoa McMillan had a career game. He caught 8 of 12 targets for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s a good quarterback away from being a top-10 receiver in the NFL. He’s seen 43% of the team’s air yards, so there’s plenty of upside against the Niners, who have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending wide receivers.
Xavier Legette has solid underlying usage, but he’s only topped 35 receiving yards in 2 games all season. Jalen Coker has seen at least 4 targets in 3 of his last 4 games. We have Coker projected ahead of Legette, even though Coker is much cheaper. Ja’Tavion Sanders is a part-time tight end, but he has a decent target share (11%) on the season. The Niners used to be tough against tight ends, but they have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to the position this season.
Even with Chuba Hubbard back from injury, Rico Dowdle has taken control of this backfield. Over the last 2 games, Dowdle has played on 82% of the snaps and has had 24 and 21 touches. Perhaps the most encouraging part is the 10 targets that he’s seen in those 2 games. He has a clear path to 20 touches against the Niners, who are 26th in PFF’s grades against the run this season. Hubbard can be avoided for the time being.
The Panthers don’t have a great pass rush or a great defense, and they are large underdogs on the road. I’ll pass on their D/ST for DFS. Kicker Ryan Fitzgerald has been good this season, but I do worry about the game script for kickers on teams that are large underdogs.
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San Francisco 49ers Preview
Brock Purdy was finally back in the lineup last week for the first time since Week 4. He showed no signs of rust, throwing for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Niners need their signal-caller to limit mistakes and manage games, and Purdy is excellent at both. He draws a nice matchup at home against the Panthers, who are 24th in EPA allowed per dropback. Purdy has a little more rushing upside than Bryce Young, but I still prefer to look elsewhere at CPT/MVP.
San Francisco’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Ricky Pearsall: 80% route participation, 17% target share, 39% air-yards share
- Jauan Jennings: 77% route participation, 18% target share, 27% air-yards share
- Demarcus Robinson: 49% route participation, 8% target share, 17% air-yards share
- George Kittle: 71% route participation, 17% target share, 14% air-yards share
I don’t think we should put much stock into the usage numbers above, because George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and Purdy have all missed games this season. In his first game back from injury, Pearsall ran a route on 77% of dropbacks. He only caught 1 of 3 targets, but the playing time was encouraging. Jennings has seen a lot of targets this season, but he’s only topped 45 receiving yards in 2 games. I prefer Pearsall here, and I’m hoping that he’s going to be the lower-owned of the two.
Demarcus Robinson was the main WR3 last week (48% route rate), while Kendrick Bourne only ran a few routes and didn’t see a target. Robinson is a decent tournament flier on this slate. Kittle is coming off of his best 2 games of the season. During that stretch, he’s caught all 15 of his targets and has scored 3 touchdowns. He has the best matchup of the wideouts, as the Panthers are 4th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Christian McCaffrey is the lock-and-load play of the slate. He has averaged 26 fantasy points per game this season and gets it done in both the running game and the passing game. In other words, he’s going to get his touches whether the Niners are up 14 points or down 14 points. He draws a nice matchup against the Panthers, who are 18th or worse in PFF’s grades against the run, EPA against the run, and fantasy points allowed to running backs. If you think the Niners will lean heavily on the run here, Brian Robinson Jr. could be a sneaky tournament option. He’s had 9 touches in each of the last 2 games.
The Niners have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season, but they are playing as 7-point home favorites against Bryce Young. At the very least, they are worth a look in large-field tournaments. Kicker Matt Gay is viable in all formats.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
While Niners onslaughts do look tempting here, their defense has been so bad that it’s hard to envision the Panthers struggling on the ground and through the air. I’m leaning toward more balanced builds in terms of how many players I’m picking from each team. With Christian McCaffrey being close to a must-play and there not being a lot of cheap value on the slate, building lineups is tricky. You have to make more sacrifices than you normally would have to on a Showdown slate. For value, I have my eye on Ja’Tavion Sanders, Jalen Coker, and Matt Gay.
Panthers vs. Niners DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 25.32 | $12,400 | 2.04 | $13,600 | 1.86 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 20.74 | $10,000 | 2.07 | $12,400 | 1.67 |
| Rico Dowdle | CAR | RB | 18.63 | $10,400 | 1.79 | $11,800 | 1.58 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | WR | 16.53 | $9,400 | 1.76 | $10,600 | 1.56 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 15.72 | $9,200 | 1.71 | $11,400 | 1.38 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 14.20 | $8,600 | 1.65 | $9,800 | 1.45 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 12.25 | $7,000 | 1.75 | $8,800 | 1.39 |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | WR | 11.40 | $7,600 | 1.50 | $8,200 | 1.39 |
| Matt Gay | SF | K | 9.08 | $5,000 | 1.82 | $6,800 | 1.34 |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | WR | 7.93 | $4,000 | 1.98 | $6,400 | 1.24 |
| Ryan Fitzgerald | CAR | K | 7.44 | $4,800 | 1.55 | $6,600 | 1.13 |
| Brian Robinson | SF | RB | 6.58 | $3,400 | 1.94 | $5,400 | 1.22 |
| Xavier Legette | CAR | WR | 6.31 | $6,400 | 0.99 | $7,400 | 0.85 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 6.11 | $4,600 | 1.33 | $7,000 | 0.87 |
| Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR | TE | 5.91 | $2,800 | 2.11 | $5,000 | 1.18 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 4.44 | $4,400 | 1.01 | $5,800 | 0.77 |
| Panthers | CAR | DST | 4.19 | $3,600 | 1.16 | $6,200 | 0.68 |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | TE | 2.99 | $2,400 | 1.25 | $3,600 | 0.83 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 2.44 | $1,400 | 1.74 | $1,800 | 1.36 |
| Brycen Tremayne | CAR | WR | 2.21 | $1,200 | 1.84 | $2,600 | 0.85 |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | WR | 2.08 | $3,000 | 0.69 | $4,000 | 0.52 |
Panthers vs. Niners Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 16-19
Tetairoa McMillan more than 4.5 receptions (1.65x) – Sleeper Fantasy
In his first 11 career games, McMillan has had at least 5 receptions in 6 of them. That was honestly a tad surprising to me, given how inconsistent this offense has been and how many uncatchable balls have been thrown his way. The talented rookie boasts a 24% target share and saw a career-high 12 targets last week against the Falcons. This is a game where Carolina will likely be trailing, so they could be forced to throw the ball more in the 2nd half.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus