The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Falcons vs. 49ers
For this Week 7 Sunday Night Football matchup on 10/19 featuring the Falcons vs. 49ers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Falcons vs. 49ers
As always, I hope your main slate went even better than expected. We are back at it on Sunday night with the Falcons and Niners, who are both above .500 on the season. The Falcons are 3-2 with a point differential of exactly 0, while the Niners are 4-2 with a point differential of -3. These are two teams with playoff aspirations, so we should be in store for a good game on Sunday night. The Niners are listed as 2.5-point favorites, while the game features a total of 47.5 points.
Key Injuries
Darnell Mooney – Questionable
Mac Jones – Questionable/Probable
Brock Purdy – Questionable/Doubtful
Ricky Pearsall – Questionable/Doubtful
Jauan Jennings – Questionable
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Questionable
Skyy Moore – Questionable
Brandon Aiyuk – Out
Atlanta Falcons Preview
It was surprising when the Falcons used their 1st-round pick on Michael Penix last year after signing Kirk Cousins in the offseason. It was just as surprising that they cut Cousins and went to Penix late last season. At this point, it looks like the Falcons knew what they were doing all along. Penix has had a 62% completion rate, he has averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, and he has only committed 3 turnovers this season. As soon as the touchdowns start rolling in, he should put up some nice fantasy outings. He draws a favorable matchup against the Niners, who are 24th in EPA allowed per dropback. I do prefer other options at MVP/CPT, as Penix doesn’t offer rushing upside.
Atlanta’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Drake London: 85% route participation, 28% target share, 34% air yards share
- Darnell Mooney: 76% route participation, 17% target share, 26% air yards share
- Ray-Ray McCloud: 55% route participation, 9% target share, 8% air yards share
- Kyle Pitts: 87% route participation, 18% target share, 14% air yards share
Drake London went nuclear against the Bills on Monday night, catching 10 of his 16 targets for 158 yards and a touchdown. The numbers are even more impressive when you consider the fact that Penix only completed 20 passes for 250 yards in that game. Darnell Mooney was unable to suit up last week and is listed as questionable once again. Despite Mooney’s absence, Ray-Ray McCloud was a surprise DNP-CD on Monday night. Casey Washington was active and ran a route on 74% of routes in that game.
If Mooney is active, London will be the only receiver on the Falcons that I have real interest in. Kyle Pitts has respectable usage metrics this season, but he isn’t afraid to let down the fantasy football community at any point in time. As far as the matchup against the Niners goes, they are 13th in fantasy points allowed to both wide receivers and tight ends.
Bijan Robinson is finally having the season we’ve all been waiting for. It turns out that if you give him the ball, good things are going to happen. It was a wild concept for Arthur Smith, but Raheem Morris seems to get it. Robinson has averaged 22 opportunities per game, which he has turned into 822 yards from scrimmage. He’s only scored 3 touchdowns and is still averaging 27 fantasy points per game. He’s a lock-and-load play against the Niners, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs. I’m not a Tyler Allgeier truther, but he can always sneak his way onto the optimal lineup with a touchdown.
The Falcons have a decent pressure rate, but the Niners have done a great job of pass-blocking this season. I would only look to the Falcons defense if you are building 10+ lineups for large-field tournaments. Trusting a kicker on the Falcons is like trusting your kid not to get their brand-new white shirt dirty. It rarely works.
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San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners can’t seem to stay healthy, yet they are still winning football games. You know you have a good coach when you can plug in players at any skill position and still be competitive. Brock Purdy and Mac Jones are both listed as questionable for this game, but it sounds like Jones will draw another start. He’s been terrific in his 4 starts this season, averaging over 300 yards and 20 fantasy points per game. I will note that the Falcons have been surprisingly tough defensively, ranking 5th in EPA allowed per dropback and 4th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Much like Penix, I prefer to target Jones at UTIL/FLEX.
San Francisco’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Jauan Jennings: 72% route participation, 14% target share, 20% air yards share
- Kendrick Bourne: 71% route participation, 16% target share, 22% air yards share
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 36% route participation, 4% target share, 6% air yards share
- George Kittle: 31% route participation, 11% target share, 8% air yards share
George Kittle is expected back this week, which should be a huge boost for the offense as a whole. He’s an elite wideout in the passing game and one of the best run blockers in the league. There’s a chance he doesn’t see a full complement of snaps here, but he should at least be on the field in key situations. Ricky Pearsall hasn’t been ruled out yet, but he hasn’t been able to practice this week, so he’ll likely be out again. Brandon Aiyuk is still out.
Jauan Jennings is apparently playing through five broken ribs, a shoulder injury, and an ankle injury. He did run a route on 77% of dropbacks last week against the Buccaneers, but he only had 1 reception for 7 yards. Kendrick Bourne has been the clear WR1 for the Niners in each of the last 2 games. During that stretch, he’s caught 15 of his 20 targets for 284 yards. I’ll continue to play Bourne over Jennings, although I expect the field to do the same. The matchup isn’t particularly enticing, as the Falcons are 6th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 1st in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Christian McCaffrey has scored at least 22 fantasy points in every single game this season. Every. Single. Game. He has averaged 18 carries per game while seeing a 24% target share. The usage is off the charts. He’s still on pace to break the all-time single-season reception record for a running back, which is a record that he already owns. The best way to move the ball against the Falcons has been on the ground, as they are 19th in PFF’s grades against the run and 21st in EPA against the run.
The Niners haven’t been able to generate much pressure this season, while Atlanta’s offensive line has been terrific. The Niners are favored and playing at home, but their defense is best suited for a large-field tournament play. Kicker Eddy Pineiro is my favorite non-skill position player from this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
I usually prioritize the quarterbacks on Showdown slates, but I plan to prioritize the running backs in this one, especially at MVP and CPT. The roles and matchups are too good to ignore for Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey. They are both so involved in the running and passing games that it’s hard to envision them having a bad game. If targeting both running backs, we have to decide if we want to jam in the quarterbacks or go with the wideouts. Drake London and Kendrick Bourne have both been terrific over the last few games. I do love the spot for Eddy Pineiro, but I will take my chances with a full fade of these defenses.
Falcons vs. 49ers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 24.65 | $12,000 | 2.05 | $13,200 | 1.87 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 21.67 | $12,200 | 1.78 | $13,400 | 1.62 |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 18.36 | $10,200 | 1.80 | $12,000 | 1.53 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 18.05 | $10,000 | 1.81 | $11,000 | 1.64 |
| Michael Penix | ATL | QB | 16.19 | $9,400 | 1.72 | $10,600 | 1.53 |
| George Kittle | SF | TE | 13.42 | $7,400 | 1.81 | $7,800 | 1.72 |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | WR | 11.14 | $8,400 | 1.33 | $9,600 | 1.16 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 10.27 | $5,800 | 1.77 | $5,800 | 1.77 |
| Kendrick Bourne | SF | WR | 8.97 | $8,200 | 1.09 | $8,800 | 1.02 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 8.06 | $6,800 | 1.19 | $7,200 | 1.12 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 7.61 | $5,200 | 1.46 | $5,000 | 1.52 |
| Jauan Jennings | SF | WR | 6.81 | $7,000 | 0.97 | $6,000 | 1.14 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 6.09 | $3,800 | 1.60 | $6,800 | 0.90 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 5.42 | $4,000 | 1.36 | $6,600 | 0.82 |
| Brian Robinson | SF | RB | 3.65 | $3,000 | 1.22 | $3,800 | 0.96 |
| Casey Washington | ATL | WR | 3.26 | $3,200 | 1.02 | $3,400 | 0.96 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | ATL | WR | 2.93 | $4,800 | 0.61 | $4,800 | 0.61 |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | WR | 2.05 | $3,400 | 0.60 | $4,400 | 0.47 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 1.67 | $2,000 | 0.84 | $2,000 | 0.84 |
| Jake Tonges | SF | TE | 1.00 | $4,400 | 0.23 | $5,400 | 0.19 |
Falcons vs. 49ers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 7-11
George Kittle less than 53.5 Receiving Yards (1.83x) – Sleeper Fantasy
This one could backfire quickly, but I’m fine going against George Kittle in his first game back from injury. It wasn’t just an injury either; he suffered a full tear of his hamstring. I know the Niners are desperate to have talented pass catchers on the field, but they can’t afford to have him miss more time. I’m expecting him to see fewer snaps than usual. Even if he’s not limited, this is the toughest matchup possible for his position. No team has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to tight ends than the Falcons.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus