The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Patriots vs. Bills
For this Week 5 Sunday Night Football matchup on 10/5 featuring the Patriots vs. Bills, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Patriots vs. Bills
Largely thanks to doing the research for these Grind Down articles, I’ve had a lot of success in Showdown this season. Let’s keep it rolling in the Sunday Night Football game. The Patriots are 2-2 on the season after beating up on the Panthers at home last week. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 and appear to be the best team in the AFC. With the Ravens and Chiefs struggling, could this finally be the year they break through and go to the Super Bowl?
The Bills are 8.5-point favorites at home in a game that features a total of 48.5 points.
Key Injuries
None
New England Patriots Preview
Drake Maye only attempted 17 passes last week against the Panthers, yet he still finished with 23 fantasy points. He’s averaged over 20 fantasy points per game this season, largely thanks to his rushing upside. In 4 games, he has 98 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. The Patriots will have to stay aggressive in this game, as the Bills are large favorites and have a hefty team total of 29.5 points. The more Maye drops back, the better. He’s close to a must at UTIL/AnyFLEX play and makes for a strong MVP/CPT. The Bills are a middling matchup, ranking 12th in PFF’s grades against the pass and 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
New England’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Stefon Diggs: 59% route participation, 18% target share, 24% air yards share
- Kayshon Boutte: 71% route participation, 12% target share, 27% air yards share
- Mack Hollins: 43% route participation, 7% target share, 7% air yards share
- Hunter Henry: 71% route participation, 19% target share, 25% air yards share
Stefon Diggs was up to a 77% route rate in Week 4, which was his highest mark of the season. In that game, he caught 6-of-7 targets for over 100 yards. He boasts an 18% target share and a 24% air yards share on the season, so perhaps we are seeing him separate as the WR1 in New England. Kayshon Boutte has scored progressively fewer fantasy points in every game this season, which isn’t exactly promising heading into this week’s game against the Bills. If choosing between the two, I’ll find the extra salary for Diggs.
Mack Hollins, Demario Douglas, and Kyle Williams will all rotate in at receiver and see snaps, but none are particularly interesting options for DFS. Hunter Henry is essentially the top wideout on the Patriots. He leads the team in target share (19%) and has caught 3 touchdowns in the last 2 games. I will note that the matchup is far from ideal, as the Bills are currently 8th in EPA allowed per dropback and 2nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. It’s a weird situation, as I love Maye but don’t have a great feeling about any of his wideouts.
TreVeyon Henderson got up to a 48% snap share in Week 3, but we saw that dip to 29% in Week 4. Despite ball security issues, the Patriots continue to give Rhamondre Stevenson more snaps and touches than the rookie. To make matters worse, Antonio Gibson has seen 18 carries over the last 3 games. We now have a three-headed monster in New England’s backfield. The only positive is that these running backs are affordable on this slate. Stevenson has the highest route rate of the three, and this is a game where they will likely be trailing, so I’ll probably keep him in my player pool for tournaments.
The Patriots have a low pressure rate and are facing one of the best offenses in the NFL. They are also 8.5-point underdogs on the road. I’m fine fading their defense in all formats. I’m also going to fade kicker Andres Borregales, as the Patriots won’t have the luxury of settling for field goals in this one.
NOTE: Used our new and improved SimLabs tool yet? Check out the video below by Dan Back, which will walk you through the premier tool in the industry. Get access to SimLabs and much more with an NFL Premium subscription!
Buffalo Bills Preview
Josh Allen wasn’t asked to do much in last week’s win over the Saints. He only threw 22 passes, yet he still finished the game with 25 fantasy points. He’s one of only a few players capable of throwing for 300+ yards and rushing for 50+ yards every week. When he’s on these Showdown slates, I rarely look elsewhere at the multiplier positions. He draws a nice matchup against the Patriots, who are 25th in PFF’s grades against the pass and 27th in EPA allowed per dropback this season.
Buffalo’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Keon Coleman: 73% route participation, 18% target share, 32% air yards share
- Khalil Shakir: 73% route participation, 15% target share, 12% air yards share
- Curtis Samuel: 43% route participation, 5% target share, 0% air yards share
- Dalton Kincaid: 56% route participation, 15% target share, 18% air yards share
Keon Coleman had the huge outing in Week 1 against the Ravens (8/112/1), but he has only caught 9-of-11 targets for 91 yards in his last 3 games combined. We all want him to be the clear WR1 on this team, but the results on a week-to-week basis are going to be volatile. Khalil Shakir is the primary slot receiver for the Bills and has seen 15% of the team’s targets this season. It’s pretty simple when it comes to these two receivers. Coleman is the upside play for GPPs, while Shakir is the safe play for cash games.
Curtis Samuel was active for the first time this season in Week 4. He ran 20 routes and played ahead of Elijah Moore. They are both cheap enough to keep in large-field tournament player pools, but they are far from priorities. Dalton Kincaid hasn’t been on the field a ton this season, but he still has a 15% target share and an 18% air yards share. It’s an exploitable matchup, as the Patriots have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Dawson Knox hasn’t caught a pass in the last 2 games, but is similar to Samuel and Moore in that he can be played in large-field tournaments.
James Cook got paid in the offseason and has seen an uptick in usage so far this season. He has played on 60% of the snaps and has averaged 22 opportunities per game. He’s currently 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards (401) and is explosive when catching the ball out of the backfield. It’s a nice matchup, as the Patriots are 22nd in PFF’s grades against the run this season. It’s also a great expected game script, as the Bills are large home favorites.
The Bills have one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL and are large home favorites, so a case can be made for their defense. Kicker Matt Prater is also a strong option, as the Bills should have plenty of drives in New England territory in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
First of all, both of these quarterbacks are priorities. Drake Maye and Josh Allen both have good arms and rushing upside, so I won’t have any lineups that don’t include both of the signal callers. Most of my lineups will have Maye or Allen at the multiplier positions. It’s hard to feel good about New England’s running game since there are three players splitting work, but James Cook on the other side makes sense in all formats. When it comes to defenses and kickers, I’m only interested in Buffalo’s side.
Patriots vs. Bills DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 23.82 | $12,000 | 1.99 | $14,200 | 1.68 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 19.66 | $11,400 | 1.72 | $13,000 | 1.51 |
| Drake Maye | NE | QB | 19.16 | $10,000 | 1.92 | $12,600 | 1.52 |
| Stefon Diggs | NE | WR | 11.14 | $7,800 | 1.43 | $9,200 | 1.21 |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF | WR | 11.05 | $8,200 | 1.35 | $10,200 | 1.08 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 10.71 | $7,600 | 1.41 | $8,200 | 1.31 |
| Keon Coleman | BUF | WR | 10.68 | $8,000 | 1.34 | $7,600 | 1.41 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 9.60 | $4,800 | 2.00 | $7,200 | 1.33 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | RB | 9.18 | $6,800 | 1.35 | $10,000 | 0.92 |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | TE | 8.97 | $7,400 | 1.21 | $8,600 | 1.04 |
| Kayshon Boutte | NE | WR | 7.45 | $5,400 | 1.38 | $5,800 | 1.28 |
| Matt Prater | BUF | K | 7.27 | $5,000 | 1.45 | $6,800 | 1.07 |
| Bills | BUF | DST | 6.69 | $4,200 | 1.59 | $6,600 | 1.01 |
| Josh Palmer | BUF | WR | 5.91 | $3,000 | 1.97 | $5,000 | 1.18 |
| Demario Douglas | NE | WR | 5.47 | $2,000 | 2.74 | $4,200 | 1.30 |
| Patriots | NE | DST | 5.35 | $3,400 | 1.57 | $6,000 | 0.89 |
| Ty Johnson | BUF | RB | 4.30 | $1,400 | 3.07 | $2,600 | 1.65 |
| Austin Hooper | NE | TE | 3.99 | $2,400 | 1.66 | $2,800 | 1.43 |
| Antonio Gibson | NE | RB | 3.95 | $3,800 | 1.04 | $5,400 | 0.73 |
| Mack Hollins | NE | WR | 3.93 | $2,800 | 1.40 | $3,800 | 1.03 |
| Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | 3.80 | $1,600 | 2.38 | $2,000 | 1.90 |
Patriots vs. Bills Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 5-7
Drake Maye more than 28.5 rushing yards (1.78x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Through the first 4 games, Maye has 24 rushing attempts for 96 yards. This puts his average right below the 28.5 rushing yard number for Pick’em. However, with the Patriots being 8.5-point underdogs on the road, we can expect more dropbacks for Maye. Since the Bills have such a good pass rush, we can expect Maye to be moving around the pocket more than usual. Dating back to last season, he’s had at least 6 rushing attempts in 4 of his last 6 games. I think we’ll see somewhere in the range of 6-10 rushes on Sunday night. Through the first 4 games, no team has given up more rushing yards to quarterbacks than the Bills. They gave up 70 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson, 70 rushing yards to Justin Fields / Tyrod Taylor, 10 rushing yards to Tua Tagovailoa (who never runs), and 49 rushing yards to Spencer Rattler.
Use our Sleeper promo code RGBONUS for a $100 sign-up bonus.
Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus