The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Ravens vs. Steelers
For this Week 18 Sunday Night Football matchup on 1/4 featuring the Ravens vs. Steelers, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Ravens vs. Steelers
Welcome back to the final regular-season edition of the NFL Grind Down. The stakes for this game are simple — win, and you are into the playoffs (along with securing the AFC North division title). The loser will have to watch the postseason from the sidelines. The Ravens picked up a huge win last week in Green Bay and could potentially get hot at the perfect time. The Steelers could have wrapped up the division with a win over the Browns last week, but Shedeur Sanders had other plans.
This winner-take-all game features a 3.5-point spread and a 41.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Rashod Bateman – Out
Justice Hill – Out
DK Metcalf – Out
Baltimore Ravens Preview
The Ravens picked up a huge win last week against the Packers to keep their season alive. Lamar Jackson wasn’t able to suit up for that game, but he’s expected back in the lineup on Sunday night. It’s been fairly ugly for Jackson since returning from injury. He’s only topped 20 fantasy points in 2 of 8 games and has been held under 10 fantasy points in half of those outings. His recent play is concerning, but this is an all-or-nothing game against the Steelers, who have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Baltimore’s wideout usage (L5 Games):
- Zay Flowers: 92% route participation, 29% target share, 41% air yards share
- Rashod Bateman: 73% route participation, 7% target share, 9% air yards share
- Mark Andrews: 65% route participation, 16% target share, 17% air yards share
- Isaiah Likely: 50% route participation, 13% target share, 12% air yards share
Rashod Bateman has been ruled out of last week’s game. He hasn’t seen a ton of targets this season, but he has run a route on 73% of dropbacks over the last 5 games. This should open up more routes for DeAndre Hopkins and Devontez Walker. Both are strong value plays on this slate even though their realistic floors are zero. Zay Flowers has dominated targets and air yards this season, but the passing game has struggled as a whole. Flowers is viable, but I would rank him behind Jackson and Derrick Henry in terms of priorities.
The Ravens already run a ton of 12-personnel, and that’s not going to change with Bateman out. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely will both have their opportunities in this game. Both players have seen at least a 13% target share and a 12% air yards share over the last 5 games. It’s a good matchup for all of the wideouts, as the Steelers are 26th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and 30th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Derrick Henry is either going to dominate in a win or he’s going to struggle in a loss. I don’t see a middling performance from King Henry in this one. My lean is toward the former, as this is the time of year when he’s at his best (just ask the Packers). With Jackson nursing an injury, Henry will have a clear path to 25 touches against the Steelers, who are 25th in EPA against the run. While I don’t mind the cheap MVP/CPT build, Henry is my favorite target at the multiplier spot.
The Ravens have been better defensively in the 2nd half of the season and are facing a 42-year-old quarterback who is missing his best weapon. I can see a scenario where King Henry and the Ravens’ defense land in the optimal lineup. Kicker Tyler Loop has made at least 2 field goals in 5 of his last 8 games.
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Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers have to be kicking themselves after losing to the Browns last week, but they still have a chance to win their division with a win tonight. A matchup against the Ravens is certainly enticing, as Baltimore is ranked 20th in EPA allowed per dropback and 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The problem is two-fold: Rodgers has no rushing upside and is missing his best weapon in the passing game. He’s viable but far from a must-play on this slate.
With DK Metcalf out, there are a lot of targets to go around in this offense. He’s seen at least 7 targets in 5 of his last 7 games. After missing last week’s game, Calvin Austin will be back in the lineup this week. We’ll also see snaps with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Adam Thielen, and Scotty Miller. Austin is my favorite of the bunch, followed by MVS, Thielen, and then Miller. The Ravens have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Much like the Ravens, the Steelers love to use 12-personnel. They typically like to rotate in three different pass-catching tight ends, but Darnell Washington was placed on injured reserve. This makes Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith much safer options for DFS. Given how inconsistent the wide receiver room is without Metcalf, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of these tight ends lead the team in receiving. I will note that the Ravens are 6th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren have both had success in recent weeks. However, it’s much easier to throw the ball on the Ravens than it is to run on them. Baltimore is ranked 7th in PFF’s grades against the run and 6th in EPA against the run. I still have my eye on Gainwell, who has seen 25 targets over the last 4 games. If the Ravens get out to a lead, this would be the best game script for both Henry and Gainwell.
The Steelers no longer have an elite defense, but I suppose they could make life tough on Lamar Jackson if they are playing with a lead. I likely won’t have any exposure to their defense in small-field tournaments, but they are viable in MME. Kicker Chris Boswell has made at least 2 field goals in 7 of his last 10 games.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a rare slate where I see paths to failure for all of the expensive plays. Derrick Henry is the one player I feel most comfortable slotting into the MVP/CPT spots. He gets better and better as the season progresses, as evidenced by his huge game against the Packers last week. For value, we have cheap wideouts on both teams thanks to Rashod Bateman, DK Metcalf, and Darnell Washington being out.
Ravens vs. Steelers DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 17.83 | $11,600 | 1.54 | $12,600 | 1.42 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PIT | RB | 17.77 | $8,800 | 2.02 | $9,600 | 1.85 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 16.35 | $9,200 | 1.78 | $11,200 | 1.46 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | QB | 15.30 | $10,000 | 1.53 | $11,600 | 1.32 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 14.86 | $11,400 | 1.30 | $13,200 | 1.13 |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | 12.60 | $9,000 | 1.40 | $10,600 | 1.19 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | 10.23 | $6,400 | 1.60 | $7,600 | 1.35 |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | 8.91 | $5,200 | 1.71 | $5,800 | 1.54 |
| Calvin Austin | PIT | WR | 8.33 | $3,800 | 2.19 | $8,600 | 0.97 |
| Tyler Loop | BAL | K | 7.56 | $5,000 | 1.51 | $6,600 | 1.15 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | PIT | WR | 7.24 | $3,200 | 2.26 | $1,000 | 7.24 |
| Ravens | BAL | DST | 6.89 | $4,800 | 1.44 | $6,200 | 1.11 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | BAL | WR | 6.76 | $2,800 | 2.41 | $7,200 | 0.94 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | K | 6.74 | $5,400 | 1.25 | $6,800 | 0.99 |
| Isaiah Likely | BAL | TE | 6.22 | $4,400 | 1.41 | $4,400 | 1.41 |
| Steelers | PIT | DST | 6.19 | $4,600 | 1.35 | $6,400 | 0.97 |
| Keaton Mitchell | BAL | RB | 5.70 | $4,000 | 1.43 | $3,800 | 1.50 |
| Jonnu Smith | PIT | TE | 5.68 | $4,200 | 1.35 | $3,400 | 1.67 |
| Adam Thielen | PIT | WR | 5.60 | $5,600 | 1.00 | $4,800 | 1.17 |
| Rasheen Ali | BAL | RB | 3.90 | $2,400 | 1.63 | $3,000 | 1.30 |
| Scotty Miller | PIT | WR | 2.40 | $3,000 | 0.80 | $8,200 | 0.29 |
| Devontez Walker | BAL | WR | 1.74 | $1,200 | 1.45 | $1,200 | 1.45 |
| Connor Heyward | PIT | TE | 1.44 | $1,600 | 0.90 | $2,000 | 0.72 |
Ravens vs. Steelers Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 24-25
Derrick Henry more than 89.5 rushing yards (1.83x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We have a chance to finish the season at .500. It’s not exactly where we wanted to be, but it would be nice to end on a little hot streak. With Lamar Jackson nursing an injury, I expect the Ravens to lean heavily on their star running back. He’s had at least 94 rushing yards in each of the last 4 games and is facing a defense that is 25th in EPA against the run.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus