The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Seahawks vs. Commanders
For this Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup on 11/2 featuring the Seahawks vs. Commanders, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – Seahawks vs. Commanders
Whether you crushed or got crushed on the main slate (hopefully the former), let’s turn our attention to the Sunday Night Football game. The Seahawks have won back-to-back games and are currently tied with the Rams atop the NFC West. The Commanders have lost 3 games in a row and are in danger of falling to 3-6 on the season. This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 48.5-point total.
Key Injuries (Updated Sunday)
Jake Bobo – Out
Cooper Kupp – Questionable/Doubtful
Terry McLaurin – Out
John Bates – Questionable
Seattle Seahawks Preview
I’m not going to lie- I wasn’t sure if the Seahawks would regret the 3-year, $100.5 million contract they gave Sam Darnold this offseason. We are only 7 games into his Seattle tenure, but it’s looking like a good investment so far. Darnold has been one of the most accurate and efficient quarterbacks in the league this season. He’s firmly in play against the Commanders, who are 24th in EPA allowed per dropback and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Seattle’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 89% route participation, 35% target share, 50% air yards share
- Cooper Kupp: 79% route participation, 16% target share, 13% air yards share
- Tory Horton: 51% route participation, 9% target share, 17% air yards share
- AJ Barner: 61% route participation, 10% target share, 9% air yards share
Jaxon Smith-Njigba boasts a 35% target share and a 50% air yards share this season. He has averaged over 24 fantasy points per game and has only scored 4 touchdowns. He’s done all this while playing alongside Cooper Kupp, who is not expected to play tonight. He draws an elite matchup against the Commanders, who have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. JSN is one of the top MVP/CPT targets on the slate.
With Kupp likely out, Tory Horton will serve as the WR2 at a cheap price point. Cody White could also see a handful of snaps at $200 on DraftKings. The Seahawks already run a lot of 12 personnel (two tight end sets), so that should continue tonight if Kupp sits. AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo are both projected as strong value plays on this slate. It’s a solid matchup for them as well, as the Commanders are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Kenneth Walker is the more explosive player in this backfield, but the Seahawks love their one-two punch with him and Zach Charbonnet. The 50/50 split doesn’t appear to be changing anytime soon. While the Seahawks are favorites, the Commanders are better equipped to stop the run than they are the pass. I would only look to Walker and Charbonnet if you are building multiple tournament lineups. I would also add a rule in LineupHQ to limit each lineup to a max of 1.
The Seahawks have an above-average pressure rate this season, while the Commanders’ offensive line has allowed a 41% pressure rate. I’m not forcing the Seahawks’ defense into lineups, but I am certainly fine using them in tournaments. Kicker Jason Myers is firmly in play, as he’s made multiple field goals in 4 of his last 5 games.
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Washington Commanders Preview
Jayden Daniels missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury, but he has been taken off the injury report and will start tonight’s game against the Seahawks. The injury complicates things for two reasons — it’s an easy injury to aggravate, and he relies heavily on his mobility as a quarterback. He’s a strong option given the nature of Showdown slates and the importance of rostering quarterbacks, but he doesn’t come without risk. This is a mediocre matchup, as the Seahawks are close to the league average in EPA allowed per dropback and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Washington’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Deebo Samuel: 79% route participation, 24% target share, 20% air yards share
- Chris Moore: 57% route participation, 8% target share, 16% air yards share
- Luke McCaffrey: 34% route participation, 6% target share, 12% air yards share
- Zach Ertz: 71% route participation, 17% target share, 16% air yards share
Terry McLaurin has been ruled out of this game, which does make this a more concentrated passing attack. Deebo Samuel leads the team in target share (24%) and air yards share (20%). He has struggled in the last 2 games, but he has topped 20 fantasy points in 3 games already this season. Once again, this is a mediocre matchup for the passing attack. Seattle is 15th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
Chris Moore, Luke McCaffrey, and Jaylin Lane will all see an uptick in snaps and routes with McLaurin out. We have them projected fairly closely, so it really comes down to personal preference. McCaffrey spends more time in the slot, while Moore runs most of his routes out wide. Zach Ertz could be the number 2 target in this offense. He has solid underlying usage and a better matchup than the receivers, as the Seahawks are 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has struggled to take control of this backfield. He’s been held under 7 fantasy points in each of the last 3 games. To make matters worse, the Seahawks have been somewhat of a pass funnel this season. They are 3rd in PFF’s grades against the run and 1st in EPA against the run. I’ll likely fade both, but I prefer Jeremy McNichols, as he’s been the primary pass-catching back in this offense, and the Commanders are 3.5-point underdogs.
The Commanders have struggled defensively this season and are facing a very efficient offense. I don’t have any interest in their defense on this slate. Matt Gay is viable, but he’s my 2nd-favorite kicker in this game.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
Even with the Jayden Daniels injury, it’s hard to make a strong case against either of the starting quarterbacks in this game. With that said, they aren’t my favorite options at the multiplier positions. I plan to use one of Seattle’s wideouts at MVP/CPT — Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tory Horton, AJ Barner, or Elijah Arroyo. If you do go the cheap route at MVP/CPT, you can really stack up the rest of your lineup. I’m not too interested in the defenses and kickers, but I will have a little exposure to Jason Myers.
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 23.11 | $12,000 | 1.93 | $13,400 | 1.72 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | 19.94 | $11,600 | 1.72 | $12,800 | 1.56 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | QB | 17.41 | $10,600 | 1.64 | $12,000 | 1.45 |
| Deebo Samuel | WAS | WR | 13.66 | $9,600 | 1.42 | $10,400 | 1.31 |
| Kenneth Walker | SEA | RB | 11.31 | $7,600 | 1.49 | $11,200 | 1.01 |
| Zach Charbonnet | SEA | RB | 11.09 | $7,000 | 1.58 | $8,600 | 1.29 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | RB | 11.02 | $7,400 | 1.49 | $9,400 | 1.17 |
| Zach Ertz | WAS | TE | 10.96 | $6,200 | 1.77 | $7,200 | 1.52 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | K | 8.71 | $5,000 | 1.74 | $6,600 | 1.32 |
| Tory Horton | SEA | WR | 8.54 | $3,200 | 2.67 | $3,000 | 2.85 |
| AJ Barner | SEA | TE | 7.99 | $3,000 | 2.66 | $5,600 | 1.43 |
| Matt Gay | WAS | K | 7.80 | $4,800 | 1.63 | $6,400 | 1.22 |
| Elijah Arroyo | SEA | TE | 6.64 | $2,400 | 2.77 | $3,400 | 1.95 |
| Chris Moore | WAS | WR | 6.44 | $3,400 | 1.89 | $2,200 | 2.93 |
| Seahawks | SEA | DST | 6.35 | $4,000 | 1.59 | $6,800 | 0.93 |
| Luke McCaffrey | WAS | WR | 6.32 | $5,400 | 1.17 | $5,000 | 1.26 |
| Jeremy McNichols | WAS | RB | 6.17 | $4,400 | 1.40 | $4,400 | 1.40 |
| Jaylin Lane | WAS | WR | 5.96 | $3,800 | 1.57 | $3,800 | 1.57 |
| Commanders | WAS | DST | 5.41 | $3,600 | 1.50 | $6,000 | 0.90 |
| Cody White | SEA | WR | 1.88 | $200 | 9.40 | $1,000 | 1.88 |
| Treylon Burks | WAS | WR | 1.71 | $200 | 8.55 | $1,000 | 1.71 |
| John Bates | WAS | TE | 1.58 | $1,600 | 0.99 | $1,000 | 1.58 |
Seahawks vs. Commanders Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 10-13
AJ Barner more than 26.5 receiving yards (1.73x) – Sleeper Fantasy
Barner doesn’t have the highest target share (10%) or air yards share (9%), but he should have a bigger role tonight with Cooper Kupp likely out. Kupp runs a lot of his routes from the slot, so it should open up more targets in the middle of the field (and lead to more 12 personnel). It’s a solid matchup on paper, as Washington has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus