The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - 49ers vs. Rams
For this Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup on 10/2 featuring the 49ers vs. Rams, Notorious will take a look at the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel as well as give you his favorite Sleeper Fantasy pick. As always, you can visit our NFL Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks – 49ers vs. Rams
Happy Week 5!
We have cruised through the first 4 weeks of the season. There are always major surprises in the NFL, but these teams have performed as expected in their first 4 games. The Niners and Rams are both 3-1 and tied atop the NFC West. This is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, as the four teams have a combined record of 11-5 this season. This game features a 5.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Brock Purdy – Out
Ricky Pearsall – Out
Jauan Jennings – Out
Brandon Aiyuk – Out
George Kittle – Out
Tyler Higbee – Out
San Francisco 49ers Preview
The Niners can’t seem to keep their quarterbacks healthy. Brock Purdy and Mac Jones have both dealt with injuries this season. Purdy missed Weeks 2 and 3 with turf toe but was able to suit up against the Jaguars last week. After failing to practice early in the week, he’s been ruled out against the Rams. Jones will draw the start, but he’s missing most of his weapons and has a tough matchup on the road. The Rams are 3rd in PFF’s grades against the pass and 2nd in EPA allowed per dropback.
Jones is a decent UTIL option on DraftKings, but is a lock-and-load option at MVP on FanDuel. They clearly didn’t expect him to start, as he’s priced at $1,000. This is the best point-per-dollar projection I have ever seen on a player on a Showdown slate.
San Francisco’s 2025 wideout usage:
- Ricky Pearsall: 80% route participation, 19% target share, 44% air yards share
- Jauan Jennings: 71% route participation, 16% target share, 23% air yards share
- Kendrick Bourne: 66% route participation, 11% target share, 11% air yards share
- Jake Tonges: 59% route participation, 11% target share, 8% air yards share
The injury bug in San Francisco has also affected the receiving room. George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk were already out. Now, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall will join them on the shelf. As you can see above, these two have combined for 35% of the team’s targets and 67% of the team’s air yards.
We have more value than we know what to do with on the Niners. Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson should be close to every down players, while Skyy Moore will mix in as well. Bourne and Robinson have both flashed upside when given the opportunity, albeit it wasn’t with the Niners. With the Rams having an elite pass rush, don’t be surprised to see a lot of 12 personnel from the Niners. This bodes well for both Jake Tonges and Luke Farrell. Ultimately, all of these wideouts are too cheap for their projected role in this game.
Christian McCaffrey has been a true workhorse running back this season. He has averaged 17 carries and 10 targets in the first 4 games of the season. He has only scored 2 touchdowns, yet he has topped 20 fantasy points in every game. With so many injuries to key players in the offense, he will continue to be the focal point for the Niners. The Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs (and bottled up Jonathan Taylor last week), but they are 20th in EPA against the run. CMC is one of the top targets on the slate and is firmly in the mix at the MVP/CPT spots.
The Niners have generated the 2nd-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, so they could struggle to get pressure on Matthew Stafford in this one. A fluke play could always turn into a defensive score, but they aren’t a priority for me on this slate. Kicker Eddy Pineiro is a perfect 7-for-7 in 3 games with the Niners this season.
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Los Angeles Rams Preview
I’ve rewatched Matthew Stafford’s touchdown pass to Davante Adams over and over again. The way he looks off the safety to open a lane to Adams is unreal. He then turns to the Colts bench and lets them know by saying, “You can’t look at me.” While he has little to no rushing upside at this stage of his career, he showed last week that he still offers a high ceiling in DFS. He threw for 375 yards and 3 touchdowns. A matchup against the Niners looks difficult on paper, but they haven’t exactly faced the death row of quarterbacks this season (Sam Darnold, Spencer Rattler, Kyler Murray, and Trevor Lawrence).
Los Angeles’ 2025 wideout usage:
- Puka Nacua: 79% route participation, 37% target share, 41% air yards share
- Davante Adams: 87% route participation, 25% target share, 39% air yards share
- Jordan Whittington: 45% route participation, 4% target share, 3% air yards share
- Tyler Higbee: 58% route participation, 8% target share, 5% air yards share
After the first 4 games, Puka Nacua is on pace for 178 receptions and over 2,100 receiving yards. He is averaging 30 fantasy points per game (!) despite scoring only 2 touchdowns this season. We thought this would be a 1A and 1B situation with Davante Adams, but Nacua is the clear WR1 in this offense. That’s not to knock on Adams, who is still boasting a 25% target share, a 39% air yards share, and double-digit end-zone targets. The Stafford double stacks with Nacua and Adams have been viable on full slates, so they are certainly viable on this Showdown slate.
With Nacua and Adams soaking up 62% of the team’s targets, it’s hard to feel good about any other wideouts on the Rams. Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell are essentially splitting the WR3 duties, but they have seen 11 targets combined in the first 4 games. Whittington is only $1,000 on DraftKings, which puts him in play for stars and scrubs lineups. Tyler Higbee has been ruled out, which makes Davis Allen and Colby Parkinson viable punts.
Kyren Williams continues to have a stranglehold on the Rams backfield, as he’s seen at least 16 touches in each of the first 4 games of the season. The RB1 in Sean McVay’s offense is always a valuable role, and the Niners are below league average in PFF’s grades against the run and EPA against the run. The best part is that with everyone looking to spend up on CMC, Stafford, Nacua, and Adams, we could get low ownership on Williams. I’ll continue to fade Blake Corum, as he would need to score a touchdown to make his way into the optimal lineup.
The Rams have one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL. They are playing at home, they are sizable favorites, and they are facing an offense that is missing key players. At the very least, the Rams defense is worth a look in tournaments. Kicker Joshua Karty has attempted 10 field goals in the last 3 games. He’s my preferred kicker target on the slate.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This game has a ton of stars and a ton of values. I have a hard time focusing my attention on the mid-range options, the kickers, or the defenses because there are so many mispriced skill position players. The Niners are missing their top 4 wideouts, while the Rams are missing Tyler Higbee. On FanDuel, I have a hard time not locking in Mac Jones at MVP ($1,000). He’s the most mispriced player of the season so far. On DraftKings, I don’t mind using any of the cheap Niners’ wideouts at CPT because that allows you to fit in almost all of the studs.
Niners vs. Rams DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 27.92 | $11,400 | 2.45 | $13,200 | 2.12 |
| Puka Nacua | LAR | WR | 27.09 | $11,600 | 2.34 | $12,800 | 2.12 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | QB | 19.52 | $10,400 | 1.88 | $11,800 | 1.65 |
| Mac Jones | SF | QB | 16.69 | $9,200 | 1.81 | $1,000 | 16.69 |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | 16.06 | $9,000 | 1.78 | $10,800 | 1.49 |
| Davante Adams | LAR | WR | 14.77 | $9,600 | 1.54 | $9,800 | 1.51 |
| Kendrick Bourne | SF | WR | 10.59 | $4,600 | 2.30 | $3,600 | 2.94 |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | WR | 9.04 | $3,600 | 2.51 | $5,200 | 1.74 |
| Jake Tonges | SF | TE | 8.31 | $4,200 | 1.98 | $6,000 | 1.39 |
| Joshua Karty | LAR | K | 8.26 | $5,400 | 1.53 | $6,400 | 1.29 |
| Rams | LAR | DST | 8.03 | $4,000 | 2.01 | $6,600 | 1.22 |
| Blake Corum | LAR | RB | 7.27 | $3,000 | 2.42 | $4,400 | 1.65 |
| Eddy Pineiro | SF | K | 6.52 | $5,000 | 1.30 | $6,200 | 1.05 |
| Jordan Whittington | LAR | WR | 5.89 | $1,000 | 5.89 | $2,800 | 2.10 |
| 49ers | SF | DST | 5.68 | $3,800 | 1.49 | $5,800 | 0.98 |
| Davis Allen | LAR | TE | 4.70 | $1,200 | 3.92 | $1,800 | 2.61 |
| Brian Robinson | SF | RB | 4.49 | $2,400 | 1.87 | $3,000 | 1.50 |
| Skyy Moore | SF | WR | 4.46 | $800 | 5.58 | $1,400 | 3.19 |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | TE | 4.16 | $600 | 6.93 | $2,000 | 2.08 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | RB | 3.44 | $2,000 | 1.72 | $1,600 | 2.15 |
| Tutu Atwell | LAR | WR | 3.42 | $3,200 | 1.07 | $4,000 | 0.86 |
| Luke Farrell | SF | TE | 3.07 | $1,600 | 1.92 | $2,400 | 1.28 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | SF | WR | 2.95 | $2,600 | 1.13 | $1,000 | 2.95 |
49ers vs. Rams Fantasy Pick’em Prediction
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 4-7
Kyren Williams more than 9.5 receiving yards (1.75x) – Sleeper Fantasy
We got back on track thanks to KaVontae Turpin, but we still have plenty of work to do to get back above .500 on the season. The receiving yard number on Williams feels a tad low, as he’s seen at least 2 targets in every game. He’s run a route on 48% of dropbacks this season and has racked up 17, 18, and 14 receiving yards in the last 3 games. The Niners have allowed the 11th-most receptions to running backs (19) so far this season.
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Image Credit: Imagn
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus