NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 1

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-09-11 12:36:24

NFL Week 1 is here, and our expert analysts are breaking down DFS projections and lineup optimizer values for FanDuel and DraftKings. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.

NFL DFS Week 1 is finally here! We’ve had plenty of time to study DFS salaries for FanDuel and DraftKings, but things can always change with a questionable guy ending up out or coach-speak that makes us wary or bigger fans of a certain player. So don’t get too comfortable with the lineups you’ve already built. This is usually one of the highest scoring weeks of the year due to players being the healthiest along with DFS pricing coming out very early and not being able to adjust to preseason injuries or other news that should make someone more expensive. We really need to nail down those players that are underpriced and choose the right expensive options to start the NFL DFS season strong, as things are going to look drastically different Week 2 as far as sharper pricing, more injuries to deal with, and what we learn about offenses after a real week of football.

This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating an RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or end zone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RGs most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NFL DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected depth charts and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside, so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under his belt.

Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is coming into the season with any kind of injury or suspension or when a week has already played out what new injuries occurred that we will need to monitor for the upcoming week. Let’s look at what we’re dealing with for Week 1 and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

Guys who are definitely out for Week 1, be it suspension or injury are DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, Brian Robinson, Jameson Williams, Tyquan Thornton, Gus Edwards, and Blake Bell. Along with Hopkins and Moore being out Zach Ertz is questionable for Week 1, and if he ends up out Marquise Brown would be looking at a ton of targets in a likely shootout with KC while Trey McBride and Maxx Williams would handle the TE snaps. Michael Thomas is expected to play, but Allen Lazard is doubtful and Drake London is questionable and if either sit Romeo Doubs and Kyle Pitts would be even better plays. George Kittle is also questionable this week with a groin injury which would make Samuel and Aiyuk much more appealing plays if he sat. J.K. Dobbins, Robert Tonyan, James Robinson, Irv Smith, and Logan Thomas are all working back from injuries that ended their last seasons, so I’d steer clear Week 1, as there is uncertainty how many snaps they’d even get if active.

NFL Projected Depth Charts – Analysis & Top Stacks

Let’s take a look at the NFL Starting Lineups page to see any major lineup news such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

There will be more to talk about here once the season gets going and we have more changes due to injuries or players climbing depth charts, so for now I’m just going to highlight some of my favorite games and stacks to target. KC/ARI is sitting on a total over 53 currently which is the highest of the slate, so I like using a few players in this game in your main build with the Kyler Murray – Marquise Brown stack probably my favorite combo for week 1 especially with Moore out and Ertz not 100%. For the Chiefs, I’d expect Travis Kelce to be the highest owned TE (especially on DK), as he’s the most sure thing in their passing game, and we might need to see how the targets shake out among JuJu, MVS, Hardman, and Moore before trusting any of them in our cash game lineup. LVR/LAC has the next highest game total at 52 currently, and I love Austin Ekeler and Davante Adams in this one. I don’t want anything to do with the Raiders RBs right now, and with the emergence of Josh Palmer and the addition of Gerald Everett, I’m not too confident in using Keenan Allen or Mike Williams in a cash game until we see how the targets shake out, so to get exposure to this likely high scoring game. I think Ekeler and Adams are the safest bets. Other games I like as potential high scoring games and want exposure to both offenses are PHI/DET, GBP/MIN, IND/HOU, and NEP/MIA.

NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected depth charts, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool, as well as the “build” tool, where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Kyler Murray ($8,200) is the best projected p/$ QB, while Marquise Brown ($6,900) is tied for the fifth best p/$ projection. I like starting my main build with these two. (With the news of Rondale Moore being ruled out I’m actually leaning towards Jalen Hurts in cash games now as he has more healthy weapons)

• This is probably the cheapest Justin Jefferson ($8,100) is going to be all season, and I definitely want him in my lineup.

• For my third WR, I’m still debating among Christian Kirk ($5,800), DJ Moore ($6,400), Davante Adams ($8,500), AJ Brown ($7,100), and Michael Pittman ($7,200), who should all be looking at 8+ targets as the WR1 on their respective teams.

• At RB, volume is what I’m looking for. Saquon Barkley ($6,800) is our top projected p/$ play, and again, this is probably the cheapest he’s going to be all season. So I want him in my main build.

• Travis Etienne ($6,200), Chase Edmonds ($5,800), and Dameon Pierce ($5,400) are some other RB1s that I like for the price.

• At TE, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are expensive (both are around $8k). And while they both could blow away the position, I think I’m going to risk a cheaper option with just as much upside in Kyle Pitts ($6,000).

• Even cheaper TE options are guys like Cole Kmet ($5,000) and David Njoku ($5,000), who should both get a ton of targets.

• For defense, I like the Saints ($4,900), Ravens ($4,800), and Panthers ($4,700) for expensive options and for cheap options I like the Dolphins ($3,800), Commanders ($3,700), and Jaguars ($3,600).

Looking at DraftKings:

• I’m still on Kyler Murray ($7,200) for cash games even though he’s the 7th best p/$ projected play, but if I wanted to go with someone else, it would be Jalen Hurts ($6,800) or Trey Lance ($6,000), as I’m a huge fan of QBs who can score with their legs too. (I’m leaning towards Hurts now with Murray losing another weapon in Rondale Moore)

• Marquise Brown ($6,200) remains a top five p/$ play and should be looking at a ton of targets with Rondale Moore now ruled out and Ertz a little banged up.

• Michael Pittman ($5,500) is my next favorite WR for cash games, as this will almost certainly be his cheapest DK price, as he should be closer to $7k, and Justin Jefferson ($7,800) is going to be over $8k for most of the season, so I will be all over him at this price.

• Other WRs I like are Christian Kirk ($5,100), Tee Higgins ($6,100), DJ Moore ($6,000), Kadarius Toney ($4,100), AJ Brown ($6,400), and Romeo Doubs ($3,000).

• At RB, we see D’Andre Swift ($6,800) as the top projected p/$ play, but the presence of Jamaal Williams makes me a bit wary, and I’d rather go with cheaper options that are less likely to get poached at the goal-line, such as guys like Saquon Barkley ($6,100), Najee Harris ($6,400), Travis Etienne ($5,600), Chase Edmonds ($5,200), and Dameon Pierce ($4,800).

• Kelce and Andrews are both under $7k and excellent plays who are likely at their cheapest price points of the year, but again, I like going much cheaper at TE with either Cole Kmet ($3,700) or David Njoku ($3,900), as I think both have 10+ target and 2+ TD upside with very little competition in their respective offenses’ passing games.

• The Saints ($3,700), Ravens ($4,000) and Panthers ($3,400) remain my favorite defenses while the Dolphins ($2,600), Jaguars ($2,500), and Commanders ($2,500) remain my favorite cheaper options.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.

NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.

Good luck this week!

Image Credit: Imagn