Week 11 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
Quite appropriately, we have 11 games on the NFL DFS main slate in Week 11. As has been the case for the past few weeks though, the main slate is lacking high-end options at the quarterback position. Elite QBs like Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and checks notes Joshua Dobbs are all playing primetime games, so we’re once again left with a questionable crop of passers to anchor our stacks on Sunday afternoon.
We’re all playing with the same player pool though, and there’s always still money to be made. Let’s take a gander at some of the more intriguing QB plays on DraftKings heading into Week 11.
Week 11 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,200) – 22.62 projected FPTs
Things could be going better in Buffalo these days. A shocking home loss to the Broncos on Monday night dropped the Bills to just 5-5 on the season, and it resulted in the dismissal of OC Ken Dorsey. Allen has still been putting up respectable fantasy scores amid the Bills’ recent skid, thanks in large part to his rushing. He has found pay dirt 7 times with his legs this season, which matches last season’s total. He’s scored a rushing TD in each of the last 4 games as well.
This week, the Bills will host the Jets in a game that mercifully did not quite make the cut for the primetime schedule. Buffalo is favored by nearly a touchdown in this one, but the matchup isn’t great on paper. The Jets’ defense has carried them to this point, and they enter Sunday’s divisional clash ranked 6th in tDVOA. They’re 4th against the pass as well.
Allen is the most expensive QB on DK this week at $8,200, and he’s one of just five players at the position north of $7,000. Stacking him with Stefon Diggs ($9,100) is always the preferred path, but it’ll cost you. Allen’s been a turnover machine this season, and we saw him throw 3 interceptions against this same Jets defense back on MNF in Week 1.
If you do roster Allen, you’re likely to get the benefit of low ownership. He’s only coming in around 4.5% pOWN% on DraftKings as of this writing, while Diggs is around 3%. The other expensive quarterbacks have significantly more attractive matchups, while the mid-range is again loaded with intriguing alternatives.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700) – 21.24 projected FPTs
One of those pricey QBs in a better spot is Tua. The Dolphins will exit their bye with a home date against a Raiders defense we’ve been picking on all season. Miami unfortunately won’t get to face them in the dome out in Vegas, but the Fins’ 29.5 implied team total is still the highest on the board. The spread in this one (Miami -11.5) is also the widest of Week 11.
The Dolphins’ offense has struggled somewhat against stiffer competition, but the Raiders certainly don’t qualify. They’re 18th this season in total DVOA, including a grim 27th against the run. Miami’s ground game has been lethal all season, and the expected return of De’Von Achane this week gives them one more home-run hitter out of the backfield.
Home/road splits are generally noisy, but Tua has enjoyed quite a bit more success on home turf this season. He’s thrown 12 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions through 4 home games, while it’s been a different story on the road (7 TDs, 4 INTs). Stacking Tua with Tyreek Hill ($9,300) is fun and certainly recommended if you can afford it. It’s very difficult to swing the full stack with Jaylen Waddle, but I’m willing to sacrifice Hill for Waddle at a significant ownership discount in some tournament builds.
Tua is projected to be more popular than Allen on DK but not by much. Tua is only pulling about 6% pOWN% despite Hill (14.3%) being the most popular wide receiver of the week.
Kyler Murray ($6,100) – 19.67 projected FPTs
Kyler finally returned from his knee injury last week, and he promptly led the Cardinals to a last-second win at home over the Falcons. This week, the Cardinals will hit the road for a date with the upstart Texans in Houston. This game should be a popular target from a fantasy standpoint, as its 47.5 total is tied with the Raiders/Dolphins clash for the highest of the week. Houston is a 4.5-point favorite.
Kyler annoyingly had a rushing TD vultured by Clayton Tune, but his return was otherwise successful. He threw for 249 yards and did add a rushing score of his own, though he found most of his aerial success through Trey McBride. Arizona’s tight end accounted for 8 of Murray’s 19 completions for a whopping 131 yards. A chalky Marquise Brown, meanwhile, stumbled his way to just 1 catch for 28 yards.
The Texans’ offense has looked downright prolific of late, though the defense remains a work in progress. Houston is just 20th in DVOA vs. the pass, and the Cardinals’ 22-point implied team total is the highest on the slate of any road underdog. This game has shootout potential, and we’re still getting Kyler at a useful discount on DK at only $6,100. He was routinely up in the $7,000-$8,000 range when he was at the peak of his powers a couple of years ago, remember?
Plus, his weapons are still affordable. We can go back to the Hollywood well and hope for the best at only $5,300, while McBride is still just $4,400. They’re two of the most popular plays at their respective positions, and we can expect Kyler to be somewhat trendy too. Murray’s current pOWN% in the 9% range is the 3rd-highest on the slate, trailing only Jared Goff and Dak Prescott.
Top DFS Sleepers for Week 11
Justin Fields ($6,900) – 20.04 projected FPTs
At long last, it appears the Tyson Bagent Era of Bears football has come to a close. Fields is set to return from his thumb injury this week, and he’s expected to draw the start when the Bears visit the Lions in Detroit. We haven’t seen Fields since he suffered the injury back in Week 6, and Chicago is a 7.5-point underdog here.
This game will take place in a dome, which adds to its fantasy appeal. This season has been a massive struggle for the Bears’ offense, but Fields had finally found some footing before sustaining that injury in Minnesota several weeks ago. In Weeks 4 and 5 against Denver and Washington, Fields threw 8 touchdowns compared to just 1 interception. As always, his rushing upside gives him a solid floor/ceiling combination worth targeting in tournaments.
Could there be some rust here after such a long layoff? Certainly. The once-maligned Lions defense has also improved significantly this season, as they’re up to 9th in DVOA. We did see Justin Herbert and Co. put 38 points on the board just last week against them though, so they’re not completely impervious.
I wouldn’t say we’re getting a huge discount on Fields here at $6,900, but nobody’s really playing him. Fields has the 6th-best median projection of any QB on DraftKings, yet he’s only 10th in pOWN%. Stacking Fields with a cheap DJ Moore ($5,600) and/or Cole Kmet ($4,100) looks like a potentially fun way to pivot away from those similarly-priced Arizona stacks in tournaments.
Geno Smith ($5,900) – 17.85 projected FPTs
Is the Geno Smith honeymoon already over? He was the darling of NFL DFS last season when he came out of nowhere to put up monster numbers for a surprisingly prolific Seahawks offense. This season, however, has been a bit of a different story. Geno will have to go on quite a tear to come close to matching last season’s 30-touchdown total, and his fantasy output has been generally mediocre from week to week.
He did show signs of life in last week’s win over Washington, however, and the Seahawks are in another fine spot this week in LA, where they’ll face the Rams. The Rams’ current defense is a far cry from the group that just won a Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Los Angeles has plummeted to just 24th in tDVOA so far this season.
Geno is affordable compared to some of the other options we’ve discussed at the position, and we know where the targets are going. We’ve seen Jaxon Smith-Njigba work his way into a bigger role as the season has progressed, while DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett continue to attract upwards of 10 targets every week. DK is suffering from a lack of touchdowns so far, but the volume is still excellent.
It’s worth noting that Lockett has missed some practices this week with a hamstring injury, so keep an eye on his injury designation heading into the weekend. If he’s out, it’s pretty safe to expect Metcalf and Smith-Njigba to suddenly pop in projections.
Geno is only projected for about 4% ownership on DraftKings in Week 11 despite the exploitable matchup here.