Week 3 NFL DFS QB Projections: DraftKings Values & Sleepers
In Week 2, we saw a few QBs bounce back after rough Week 1 showings. Daniel Jones, CJ Stroud, and Josh Allen were among those who rebounded, while several others continued to struggle. Justin Fields, Deshaun Watson, and Joe Burrow, you know who you are.
Of course, two weeks’ worth of games is still too small a sample from which to draw any legitimate conclusions. Fields scuffled for the first few weeks of last year until he exploded about halfway through the campaign. With some of these guys, you know it’s only a matter of time until they get things turned around.
Our RotoGrinders premium DraftKings projections are already live ahead of the 12-game Week 3 slate. There are a few high-total games on the board, but we’ll also have some potentially windy conditions to monitor in a few games out east.
Who are the best DraftKings QB plays heading into Week 3?
Week 3 DraftKings Projections — Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300, 24.82 projected FPTs)
The Chiefs came out on the winning end of a surprisingly low-scoring affair in Jacksonville last Sunday, and this week they’ll return home to play host to the winless Bears. In news that should surprise absolutely nobody, Patrick Mahomes is the most expensive QB on the DK slate. He topped 300 yards passing against the Jags, and he’s thrown 4 touchdown passes through the season’s first couple of games.
The return of Travis Kelce after his one-game absence was a boon to the passing attack. Kelce logged just 64% of the snaps in his 2023 debut, but it’s safe to expect that number to continue to rise as he works his way back from the knee injury. The former All-Pro instantly led KC in targets (9), of which he hauled in just 4 for 26 yards and a score.
The Chiefs are the biggest favorites of Week 3 (-12.5) against what has been a hapless Bears squad on both sides of the ball. Kansas City’s 30-point implied team total is also the highest of the weekend. Chicago has been gouged for 277 passing yards per game through the season’s first 2 weeks, and a date with Mahomes and friends likely won’t help those numbers improve.
Stacking the $8,300 Mahomes with the $7,200 Kelce is appealing, but expensive. The rest of the pass-catchers are cheap, though it’s worth noting Kadarius Toney ($4,600) has missed a few practices this week with a toe issue. Skyy Moore ($4,400), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,200), and Rashee Rice ($3,300), are high-risk/high-reward value plays in your Chiefs stacks, especially if Toney sits.
Kirk Cousins ($6,900, 22.49 projected FPTs)
You know you’re in for a wild week if Kirk Cousins is projecting among the best QB plays. As of this writing on Thursday afternoon, Cousins is the proud owner of a higher median projection than luminaries like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. What a time to be alive.
Chargers-Vikings figures to be a very popular game stack. These are two of the fastest and most pass-heavy offenses in football, and they’ll go toe-to-toe in the favorable indoor conditions up in Minneapolis. This game has the highest over/under of the week (53.5), and Minnesota is a slight 1.5-point favorite on home turf.
Through 2 games, the Vikings have thrown the ball on a whopping 77.97% of their plays. That isn’t at all sustainable, but it easily leads the league. Minnesota hasn’t gotten any running game going whatsoever, which explains why they traded for Cam Akers on Wednesday afternoon. Even if they do get Akers onto the field in this one, it’s fair to expect this team to continue to rely heavily on Cousins and the passing game.
Cousins looks like a strong option in all formats, particularly in cash games, considering he’s the seventh-most-expensive option at the position this week. Ownership in GPPs will be there, however, as his 13.54% pOWN is also the highest of any QB on DraftKings.
Josh Allen ($8,100, 22.24 projected FPTs)
Josh Allen and the Bills got into the win column last weekend with a breezy home win over the Raiders. This week, they’ll head down to DC for a matchup with a talented Commanders defense that figures to put up more of a fight. Buffalo’s 25.5 implied team total is still among the higher marks on the slate, and they’re favored by a little less than a touchdown on the road.
Stefon Diggs ($8,100) is projecting to be twice as owned as his QB, which gives this stack some merit in GPPs even though it’ll cost you. I also have no qualms with taking a shot on Dalton Kincaid ($3,400), who’s coming in with lower ownership than Dawson Knox ($3,200) despite their similar projections.
Justin Herbert ($7,500, 22.05 projected FPTs)
As you would expect, the other QB in the Chargers-Vikings extravaganza is popping in our QB projections, too. The Bolts may be off to an 0-2 start of their own, but Justin Herbert has put up respectable scores in each outing to this point.
One thing to watch, of course, will be the status of Austin Ekeler. The Chargers’ all-everything back is still dealing with the ankle injury that kept him off the field last week, which led to a whopping 23 combined targets for Mike Williams (13) and Keenan Allen (10) against the Titans. Josh Kelley got the bulk of the work on the ground but was completely ineffective against a stout Tennessee front.
Top DFS Sleepers
Dak Prescott ($6,600, 18.34 projected FPTs)
Cowboys-Cardinals is another on-paper mismatch set to take place in the desert on Sunday afternoon. Dallas may well be the league’s most impressive team thus far, while Arizona is…not that. The line looks about the way you’d expect it, with the Cowboys listed as 12.5-point favorites on the road here. Dallas’ 27.75 total is also the second-highest on the day.
So, we should probably play Dak Prescott in this spot, right? Well, if the current pOWN is any indication, most are not doing that. Prescott projects well for the dollar, yet he’s currently projected for just 1.64% ownership. There’s blowout risk here, but the Cowboys will almost surely be on the winning side of things if this game gets out of hand. They could salt this thing away with a heavy dosage of Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle if the Cardinals succumb early, Prescott can certainly do some of the damage en route to the Arizona route.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,700) is the clear-cut top stacking target with Dak on the heels of his monster outing last week, while Brandin Cooks ($5,200) looks like a decent secondary value assuming he returns from his knee injury.
Pollard looks like a chalky running back this week, so stacking Prescott and the passing attack gives you some natural leverage.
Jared Goff ($6,500, 17.14 projected FPTs)
Another indoor game with shootout potential is Falcons-Lions, which will take place in the Motor City. Unlike Chargers-Vikings, however, this game looks like it’ll go overlooked from an ownership standpoint in GPPs. The 46.5 over/under here is the fourth-highest of the week, and Detroit is favored by a mere field goal.
As is the case with Dak, Jared Goff is projecting for about 1% ownership on DK despite a midrange salary and an advantageous matchup. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900) also returned to practice on Thursday, which indicates Goff should have his No. 1 target on the field for this one. Josh Reynolds ($4,200) has been a pleasant surprise through 2 games, and he projects as one of the better point-per-dollar punts at wide receiver. Sam LaPorta ($4,000) has also generated 5 and 6 targets in his first 2 NFL appearances, respectively.
Reynolds (15%) is projecting for some ownership, but he’s really the only Lion doing so. If you’re looking to get different around a chalky piece, why not stack him with his QB?