NFL DFS QB Report: Reviewing Week 9
NFL quarterbacks rely on efficiency to make their mark in daily fantasy sports. Stats like per attempt efficiency, volume metrics, air yards, deep attempts, and rushing yards can truly point us towards some of the best options on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. In this article, we’ll dive into the RotoGrinders Usage App from JoshADHD to locate a few key QB trends from last week. The insights will help us understand how QB performances of the past could impact our future projections and projected ownership.
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Week 9 NFL DFS QB Efficiency, Volume, and Air Yards Report
Josh Allen
NFL Team: Buffalo Bills
Pass Attempts: 38 in Week 9
Air Yards: 341 in Week 9
Air Conversion (PACR): 1.22 in Week 9
Rushing Yards: 14 in Week 9
Allen headlined this article last week but for different reasons. In that instance, he was coming off one of his worst games of the season. But in that instance, I said a lot of it had to do with the weather (gross) and the matchup (terrible). I closed it out by saying that he couldn’t ask for a better bounce-back spot than against the Seahawks.
Well, I sure hope you listened and played him last week!
The Bills came out throwing early and often against the Seahawks, and to say that Allen absolutely torched this defense would be an understatement. After having his second-lowest output in the air in Week 8 (154 yards), his 415 passing yards against Seattle tied for his season-best. He racked up three touchdowns via the pass as well, to go along with the one he got on the ground. The end result was the third most DraftKings points (39) on the week. Not too shabby, Josh!
Allen and the Bills head to Arizona to face Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in Week 10. It just so happens that Murray (41.92 DraftKings points) was the only quarterback to outscore Allen in Week 9. Expect some fireworks in this one!
Jake Luton
NFL Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Pass Attempts: 38 in Week 9
Air Yards: 323 in Week 9
Air Conversion (PACR): 0.94 in Week 9
Rushing Yards: 13 yards in Week 9
Even though it is only a one-game sample, it is good to get a feel for what Luton did in his NFL debut. First and foremost, it was good to see that they let him sling it. His 38 pass attempts were the ninth highest in Week 9, as were his 42 dropbacks.
And it’s not like he was just checking down the whole game either. His 323 air yards also happened to be the ninth highest during Week 9.
Where he struggled a little bit was his PACR though, which came in at just 0.94. For comparison, here are some quarterbacks’ average PACR this season that are in that range:
Ryan Tannehill, 0.98
Josh Allen, 0.96
Daniel Jones, 0.95
Lamar Jackson, 0.95
Matthew Stafford, 0.94
Regardless, the usage was absolutely promising in his NFL debut. Considering the Jaguars opened up at +14 heading into Green Bay for Week 10, they are probably going to need him to sling it even more this weekend.
Alex Smith
NFL Team: The Washington Football Team
Pass Attempts: 32 in Week 9
Air Yards: 107 in Week 9
Air Conversion (PACR): 3.04 in Week 9
Rushing Yards: 0 in Week 9
Smith came in for the injured Kyle Allen late in the first quarter on Sunday, and Smith has already been named the starter for Week 10 against Detroit. Some of his stats from that Giants game look good (24 for 32, 325 yards), while some others (1 TD to 3 INT) ehhhhh not so good.
What I wanted to find out when digging into Smith’s numbers was how much he was throwing downfield. I mean, 325 yards passing! Pretty good, right?
But when digging in a little deeper, I see just 107 air yards. Sure, he played about just a hair over three quarters, but that is pretty abysmal. Drew Brees was in front of him at just 161 air yards, and Lamar Jackson (86 air yards…yikes) is the only other quarterback below Smith that wasn’t simply making a garbage time appearance in Week 9.
Furthermore, Smith’s average depth of target (aDOT) was…wait for it…3.34 yards! C’mon man! For 32 passing attempts, that is hilariously bad.
So how did he even get to 325 yards to begin with? Well, the 68 yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin helped. Without having looked at all of Smith’s throws, I am guessing it was one of his deepest balls thrown. And that isn’t saying much, by the way. If I recall correctly, it went 20 or so yards, McLaurin caught it, and then some awful tackling by the Giants allowed him to sprint ahead to the end zone.
Smith’s PACR was the highest of any quarterback in Week 9, but that is extremely misleading considering the dink-and-dunk nature of his throws. To make a long story short, Smith (and the Football Team offense in general) is going to be extremely reliant on the pass-catchers to make lemonade out of this lemon.