NFL DFS Stack Spotlight: Week 11
Stacking is an essential part of NFL DFS. Each week it is important that we identify the best available correlations and apply them carefully to our DFS lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer has a stacking feature we can use to locate high quality options each week, and we’ll use it now to discuss three of the top options from our NFL projections. We can then compare that to the projected ownership to help make our decisions for daily fantasy football.
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Week 11 DFS Stacks Report
Los Angeles Chargers
Top Players to Stack: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen
Projected Fantasy Points: 37.16 FanDuel/Yahoo, 42.14 DraftKings
Opponent: New York Jets
Top Bring Backs: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims
Expected Ownership: mid-to-high
This Herbert/Allen duo somewhat surprisingly checks in as the highest projected QB + 1 WR/TE in our Stack Finder, narrowly edging out the Packers duo of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams (who did not practice yet again on Thursday and is listed as questionable for Sunday at the time I am writing this). A matchup against the Jets certainly helps lead to their gaudy projections, as they rank dead last in Pass Defense DVOA and bleed fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (4th most) and wide receivers (9th most).
And that’s not to say that these two guys haven’t been great against everybody they have faced this season either. Herbert has gotten below 20 DraftKings in exactly one game this season, a 19.7 performance against Carolina. Everything else has been in the 21-27 range, while sprinkling in that 41.48 performance against Jacksonville to show you the kind of ceiling he has.
I feel like everyone knows about Allen at this point. His 31.7% market share of targets in the eight games he has played (not including Week 5 when he left the game early with an injury) is the second highest in the league behind only the aforementioned Adams. On top of that, he has found the end zone in three straight games.
If you look at their Projected Ownership in the Stack Finder, it shows they will be one of the highest owned duos on the slate. That being said, Allen is driving a lot of that, as he is projected to be the highest owned wide receiver and FanDuel and second highest on DraftKings. Herbert is in the 8-10% range, as Projected Ownership is spread out at quarterback per usual.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Top Players to Stack: Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson
Projected Fantasy Points: 43.47 FanDuel/Yahoo, 50.77 DraftKings
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Top Bring Backs: James Robinson, DJ Chark
Expected Ownership: low
I love this stack for a multitude of reasons, and the first one to discuss is almost always ownership.
If we use the Stack Finder and go QB + 2 WR/TE, this trio has the eighth highest cumulative projection on the slate. But if you sort by Projected Ownership (High to Low), you have to scroll way down, I mean waaaaaaaay down, to find these guys. I’m talking like maybe they crack the Top 50, but I stopped counting after awhile.
This team has a 28+ implied team total and is double-digit favorites against Jacksonville. So everyone automatically assumes they won’t have to throw the ball much, and that is why you are seeing James Conner with the highest Projected Ownership on the team (on FanDuel that is; Johnson slightly edges him out on DK, but they are both 10% or below).
But I think that would be a mistake to just assume they are going to pound it on the ground all day. That certainly isn’t what they did against Cincinnati last week, as they had no problem continuing to chuck it around the yard in the second half despite being up by multiple touchdowns.
The focus has clearly shifted with this offense. If you look at the last three weeks alone, they have thrown it on almost 70% of their plays. If you look at the season as a whole, they are right around 59%.
Since Ben doesn’t have any upside with his legs, you need to bank on him having that monster 4-5 touchdown game and choosing correctly on his pass-catchers for this stack to hit. So while I put JuJu and Diontae here since they project for the most points, don’t be afraid to mix in some Chase Claypool and Eric Ebron. If they are all going to have a big game, I’d like to think a matchup against the second worst pass defense in the league is the game it will happen.
Minnesota Vikings
Top Players to Stack: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen
Projected Fantasy Points: 32.06 FanDuel/Yahoo, 36.14 DraftKings
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Top Bring Backs: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb
Expected Ownership: low
I only put Thielen up there with Cousins, as I worry about how low the likelihood is that Cousins + 2 WR/TE can get you a ceiling game. So Cousins/Thielen gets the slight nod for me, but you can also throw Cousins/Jefferson and maybe Cousins/Thielen/Jefferson into the mix.
The reason I have this group here is due to the leverage it gets you off of the huge Dalvin Cook chalk. At the time I am writing this (Friday morning), we have him with the highest Projected Ownership on the slate and by a rather wide margin. And if Davante Adams has to miss Sunday’s game, Cook’s ownership probably shoots up even more as that would be one less stud to spend on.
Cook is obviously a great play, as the Vikings are a touchdown favorite against Dallas and he has touched the ball a ton the past three games (32, 24, 34) since coming back from injury. But if Cook fails this weekend from a fantasy perspective, it is likely via one of two ways. The first is the Vikings offense as a whole stinks, which certainly isn’t the most likely scenario considering who they are playing.
But the other scenario is that the Vikings rack up a bunch of their points through the air. Maybe Thielen or Jefferson break a long play for a touchdown. Maybe Cooks still gains plenty of yards, but the Vikings throw it when they get in close. Heck, maybe the Cowboys get up to a huge lead early and the Vikings are forced to throw a ton! Ok, maybe not that last one.
Regardless, you see where I am going with this. If you are looking for a way to get off of the massive Cook chalk, then looking to a few guys on his own team is a good starting point.