NFL DFS Stack Spotlight: Week 13
Stacking is an essential part of NFL DFS. Each week it is important that we identify the best available correlations and apply them carefully to our DFS lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer has a stacking feature we can use to locate high quality options each week, and we’ll use it now to discuss three of the top options from our NFL projections. We can then compare that to the projected ownership to help make our decisions for daily fantasy football.
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Week 13 DFS Stacks Report
Los Angeles Chargers
Top Players to Stack: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen
Projected Fantasy Points: 50.34 FanDuel/Yahoo, 58.12 DraftKings
Opponent: New England Patriots
Top Bring Backs: Jakobi Meyers, James White
Expected Ownership: low
With it being a full-point PPR site, I really like this stack on DraftKings. And when you look at where all of these guys’ Projected Ownership stands as I’m writing this (Friday morning), it’s hard not to like it even more.
Herbert: 4.9%
Ekeler: 7%
Allen: 8.1%
I am guessing the industry is a bit down on this offense as a whole due to the fact that they are playing the Patriots. This defense has allowed the third fewest plays per game (58.73), which is probably part of the reason that the Chargers have such a low team total (23.25).
But the plays that are run against them are usually pretty darn successful. They rank 31st in Defense DVOA (28th Rush; 30th Pass), while also allowing the #1 Pass Success Rate (52.34%) and #5 Rush Success Rate (53.55%) in the entire league.
If you are wondering whether you can stack a few different pass-catchers with Herbert, look no further than last week’s game against the Bills (Ekeler’s first game back). Herbert chucked it 52 times, 10 of them to Allen and 16 of them (!!!) to Ekeler.
The price tags on these guys are expensive enough that I wouldn’t blame you for just dropping it down to Herbert + 1 of Ekeler or Allen (or Hunter Henry). But I do think they can all get there together if the game-script works out favorably for them.
Seattle Seahawks
Top Players to Stack: Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf
Projected Fantasy Points: 38.20 FanDuel/Yahoo, 43.37 DraftKings
Opponent: New York Giants
Top Bring Backs: Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard
Expected Ownership: mid-to-low
Make no mistake about it; this is purely a play on the Projected Ownership and talent of D.K. Metcalf.
A brief look at projections (both ours and THE BLITZ) show Metcalf and teammate Tyler Lockett with roughly the same projection. And since Lockett is now meaningfully cheaper than Metcalf across the industry, he is likely going to show up in more lineups. Throw in that James Bradberry is likely to see plenty of Metcalf, and that might widen the ownership gap even more. As it stands now, Metcalf is projected for just the 11th highest ownership on FanDuel at wide receiver (Lockett 6th) and 12th highest on DraftKings (Lockett 2nd).
I mean, I definitely get it. Bradberry is one of the better corners in the league and is the kind of matchup that has caused Metcalf to struggle in previous, similar matchups. But I also just don’t really care that much if the ownership is going to be this low, because Metcalf has proven to basically be an outlier when it comes to this fantasy football game we all love to play. And due to his athletic gifts, I don’t know if we can truly put an accurate ceiling projection on him.
Okay, let me quit babbling now and make this long story short. If Wilson/Lockett is going to be the popular Seahawks mini-stack, I think it makes all the sense in the world to just pivot that to Wilson/Metcalf in tournament formats. Seriously though, which of these two guys (see picture at the top of the article) would you rather have in your lineups??
Minnesota Vikings
Top Players to Stack: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson
Projected Fantasy Points: 33.39 FanDuel/Yahoo, 38.04 DraftKings
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
Top Bring Backs: James Robinson, DJ Chark (if active)
Expected Ownership: mid-to-low
With the Vikings being double-digit favorites and having an implied team total north of 30 points, Dalvin Cook is looking to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate. And while I am not going to sit here and tell you not to play him, I do want to point out that there is plenty to like with the Vikings passing game too.
It is always a tough decision, if you aren’t playing both (which is in play here), on who to pick between Jefferson and Adam Thielen. A lot of the appeal for Thielen is how often Cousins looks to him when they get close to the end zone. Inside the 10-yard line, he is tied for the second most touchdowns (with Davante Adams) in the league with seven (Mike Evans has nine).
But since their Week 7 bye (and not including last week’s game since Thielen didn’t play), Jefferson has been the clear leader in market share of air yards (49.6% to Thielen’s 37%) in that four-game span. His aDOT (14.74) is much higher than Thielen’s too (9.97). Essentially what I’m saying is, I think Jefferson is the likelier candidate these days for explosive plays.
And which defense has given up the sixth most explosive plays (classified as 20+ yard pass plays) in the league? The Jags. It is certainly closer than maybe I am making it out to be, but I’ll take Jefferson over Thielen this weekend.