NFL DFS Stud WR Spotlight: Week 10 Projections
Player projections are set for this week, and our sights are now set on Sunday’s main slate for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. The time is now to unleash the RotoGrinders LineupHQ Optimizer to discover the top projected wide receivers on the week. In this article, we will use the DFS player projections we create to discuss some high priced pass catchers with strong outlooks this week. We’ll also examine a high priced receiver who has some downside as well.
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Let’s get busy analyzing the slate, so that we can use projected ownership to make some key decisions later in the week.
Week 10 NFL DFS Wide Receiver Report
Davante Adams
NFL Team: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 23.59
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 19.31
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 19.31
You mean to tell me the guy who has AVERAGED 38 DraftKings points over the last three games is leading off this Stud WR Spotlight article? What a shocker!
It’s hard to say that any of this is fluky though considering how much volume he sees. If you take out the game earlier in the year against the Lions in which he got injured, here are his targets in the other five games:
17, 10, 16, 11, 12
And if that isn’t enough, he leads the league in red zone targets too. Inside the 20, he and Travis Kelce are tied for first with 13 targets. Adams has turned those 13 targets into 11 receptions and five touchdowns.
At this point, I don’t really have a negative thing to say about the guy in terms of fantasy football. If you are looking for a reason to fade him (besides the expensive price tag), I suppose that reason would be they are two-touchdown favorites against the Jaguars. I could certainly see scenarios where this game gets out of hand quickly and the Packers take their foot off the gas a little bit. If Adams isn’t heavily responsible for the Packers extending the lead early, he could just be ‘okay’ from a fantasy perspective.
DeAndre Hopkins
NFL Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Buffalo Bills
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 19.05
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 15.61
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 15.61
Hopkins only saw three targets in Week 9 against the Dolphins. Considering he played on 97% of the snaps, there are people out there smarter than me that can tell you precisely why that happened.
My guess is that the Dolphins made a conscious effort to take him out of the game, as they are one of the better teams in the league against the pass. If that indeed was the case, Kyler and the Cardinals did what you are supposed to when a defense sells out to take one thing away: beat them with your other parts. Christian Kirk did just that, catching five of his eight targets for 123 yards and a touchdown.
I have another guess, but this one is for the upcoming Week 10 matchup against the Bills. And that is the Cardinals coaching staff has been scheming up ways all week to get Hopkins more involved on Sunday. Remember, before those three targets on Sunday night, Hopkins had a 31% market share of targets in Weeks 1-8. That had him third in the entire league in that span.
I am really liking Week 10 as a bounce-back spot for Hopkins, especially on DraftKings where the price came down to $7,700. The last time he was that cheap on DraftKings was in Week 2. I wish the matchup were a tad better, but we are still looking at one of the biggest target monsters in the league on an offense with an implied team total of 29+ points this week. And also that price drop on DraftKings? Yeah, sign me up please.
Chris Godwin
NFL Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
DraftKings Fantasy Points: 15.03
FanDuel Fantasy Points: 12.23
Yahoo Fantasy Points: 12.23
Week 9 was the first week that we got to see this Bucs offense with Antonio Brown in the mix. Considering the Saints smoked them 38-3, I think we can all agree things didn’t go that great for them!
With such a wonky game, it is tough to read too much into the underlying numbers. But I will say this, a snapshot of the market share of targets in that game is what I am afraid of going forward for Godwin and all Bucs skill position players.
Godwin, 16.2%
Mike Evans, 16.2%
Rob Gronkowski, 16.2%
Leonard Fournette, 16.2%
Antonio Brown, 13.5%
Ronald Jones, 10.8%
Of course, it is unlikely that things remained that tightly bunched going forward, but it is a microcosm of the situation as a whole when you bring in one more mouth to feed. While it should (might??) make the Bucs more likely to win football games, it is a disaster for fantasy.
If you are looking for silver linings with Godwin though, his price has cratered down to $6,000 on DraftKings. That is a season-low over there, so I’m much more likely to want exposure on that site compared to FanDuel (where he is $7,500). That FanDuel price has him as the eighth most expensive wide receiver, while he is the 18th most expensive on DraftKings.
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