Noto's NFL DFS Key Personnel: Week 15

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2025-12-12 17:56:45 Premium Content Part of the product NFL DFS

A daily fantasy sports OG, Notorious has been roaming the DFS streets ever since they were invented. So, who better to walk you through all of the key NFL DFS positions each week? Noto has racked up multiple live final seats and several six-figure tournament wins in his DFS career, and he will mix it up in all different types of contests. In his Key Personnel article for Week 15, he will walk you through his favorite NFL DFS picks, ways to pivot away from the chalk, and overall strategy for the upcoming featured slate.

Welcome back to the Key Personnel!

It’s hard to believe 14 weeks of the NFL season are already in the books. It’s so strange because winters always feel long, yet the NFL season goes by in a flash. Week 14, aka Ryan Fitzpatrick week, was close to being a good week, but my players in the early games really struggled. I had some late slate warriors that nearly carried my lineups to a cash, but we didn’t quite get there. Ultimately, pivoting away from Harold Fannin due to the snow ended up being my biggest mistake.

With FitzMagic week behind us, we now turn our attention to Week 15. There were a lot of good athletes who wore the number 15 in their careers, but my favorite was Vince Carter. He played in the NBA for 22 years and is the only player to play in four different decades. In addition to all of the stats, the All-Star appearances, and his Gold Medal win. I will always remember him for putting on the best performance in the history of the dunk contest. I’ll also remember him dunking over a 7-footer in the Olympics.

I also have an amusing story about Carter. Growing up, I was obsessed with collecting basketball cards. For my birthday one year, I got a box of Fleer Skybox cards. I managed to pull a Carter Autographics card during the height of his prime (and before these autograph cards were commonplace). I sold the card for $200 later that week and bought a Sega Dreamcast, which was an underrated video game console. Moral of the story? Vince has provided a lot of good memories, so hopefully he can provide another one in Week 15.

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NFL DFS Top Picks & Plays: Noto’s Key Personnel for Week 15

For the first time in a long time, we have 13 games on the main slate. Byes are done for the season, overseas games are done for the season, and we aren’t quite to the Saturday slates. This means we have more choices than we’ve been accustomed to over the last couple of months. Surprisingly, there aren’t as many injuries as you might expect there to be this late in the season. There are some intriguing value plays, but I wouldn’t call any of them free squares. We are also to the point of the season where we have to start considering the motivation angle for both teams and players.

As always, my most up-to-date Core Plays can be found in our NFL DFS optimizer, LineupHQ.

Top Quarterback Plays

Tier 1 – Core Plays

Lamar Jackson ($6,400 DK / $8,200 FD) and the Ravens are coming off a bad loss and now need to win out to have any semblance of postseason hope. While Jackson has struggled since returning from injury, he put up 22 fantasy points last week against the Steelers. He was finally more aggressive on the ground, rushing for 43 yards and a touchdown. He draws an elite matchup against the Bengals, who are 31st in EPA allowed per dropback and 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Jackson is cheap and could have a classic ceiling game in this matchup.

If you are looking to save salary at quarterback, my favorite target is Jaxson Dart ($5,600 DK / $7,600 FD). He struggled in his first game back from injury, but it was a brutal matchup on the road. The Giants have had 10 days of rest and now get to face Washington at home. This is as good of a get-right spot as you are going to find. The Commanders are 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Dart pairs nicely with Wan’Dale Robinson and/or Theo Johnson.

Tier 2 – Strong Plays

I’m not finding a ton of extra cap space in my builds this week, but I’m still going to prioritize Josh Allen ($7,500 DK / $9,300 FD). He tends to play his best in big games, and there’s a lot on the line in this week’s AFC East rivalry game against the Patriots. A win for the Bills would put them right back in the mix for the division title. The Patriots have an excellent defense, but that just means Allen will have to take over in this game. He’s already had 3 games this season where he has scored at least 38 fantasy points (DK scoring).

Matthew Stafford ($7,000 DK / $8,100 FD) never seems to project well, yet his top two receivers always project well. It’s an interesting dichotomy. This is a big game for the Rams, as they are currently tied with the Seahawks for the division lead. The best way to attack the Lions is through the air, as they are 3rd in PFF’s grades against the run and 1st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Meanwhile, they have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Whether you want to look at the matchup, the motivation, or the narrative (revenge game), everything sets up well for Stafford.

Tier 3 – Sprinkle Plays

I’m not fully drinking the Shedeur Sanders ($4,700 DK / $6,600 FD) Kool-Aid, but I’m sipping it. The Browns finally let him loose last week against the Titans, and he put up a huge fantasy outing. He threw for 364 yards, rushed for 29 yards, and scored a total of 4 touchdowns. I know it was at home against the Titans, but at least we know there’s a ceiling there now. He draws another nice matchup this week against the Bears, who are 20th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Sam Darnold ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD) had an awful 4-game stretch before scoring 22 fantasy points last week against the Falcons. While we could be looking at another blowout this week against the Colts (13.5-point spread), there’s still a lot to like here. The Seahawks have a ton of motivation (tied for the division lead), they have a massive team total (28 points), and the Colts have not been great against the pass. It’s also easy to stack with Darnold, as you can pair him with Jaxon Smith-Njigba or AJ Barner.

🏈 Quarterbacks – Noto’s Notes

🏆 Core Plays: Lamar Jackson, Jaxson Dart
💪 Strong Plays: Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford
🌧️ Sprinkle Plays: Shedeur Sanders, Sam Darnold
% Ownership Angle: Dart chalk —> good chalk vs. WAS
🔗 Potential Pairings: Dart + Robinson, Sanders + Fannin
❤️‍🩹 Key Injuries: Jayden Daniels (O), Daniel Jones (O), Geno Smith (D), Justin Fields (Q), Tyrod Taylor (Q)

Top Running Back Plays

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