Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 1
Single-entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass-multi-entry tournaments, in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet, the common flaws are usually that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces — not enough correlation or leverage; or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So, we’ll have higher-owned players and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI, using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then, we’ll go position-by-position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 1
STACKS
Normally in this space, we’ll discuss the chalk, the pivot, and the leverage plays, but ownership looks like it’ll be very spread out for the stacks. I think we can play whoever we want out of the:
- Bengals at Browns
- Browns vs. Bengals
- Chargers vs. Dolphins
- Dolphins at Chargers
- Eagles at Patriots
- Jaguars at Colts
- Seahawks vs. Rams
- Vikings vs. Buccaneers
We’re not gonna list every stackable team every week. They’re just all so close and abundant that it’s valuable to see the list to calm our nerves to play whoever we want.
I don’t know where I’m going, personally, with my stack yet, but if I had to make one lineup on Friday morning, I’m probably starting it with a Joe Burrow to JaMarr Chase stack on both sites.
The top-three projected QBs are Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields — all QBs who can get there without their receiving corps having big weeks. Next is Justin Herbert and Burrow.
Burrow-Chase is so solid in that Burrow basically has the same projection as Herbert with a receiving corps at least a tier higher than Herbert’s. This isn’t to besmirch Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. They’re just not Chase and Tee Higgins.
That Chargers-Dolphins game has a higher total by two points, but I’m of the mind that 47.5 is too low for the Browns-Bengals game. That Browns-Bengals game is gonna be a shootout and stay a pick’em game. Can it be 24-23? Sure, but raise your hand if 31-28 shocks you.
Bringing me to the stack that isn’t in my top three but I can’t shake off: the Browns. They’re not popping in our Opto% ratings, and I’m assuming that that’s due to Nick Chubb threatening the passing volume. But the Browns stack goes along with my story of a fast-paced shootout. Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper don’t project relatively well with this list, but they just drip of ceiling. Sure, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore are nice players, but Cooper could dominate the usage from a good QB who will very willingly jam the ball to his best guy.
The fact of the matter is that people still don’t stack enough in NFL, and with people plunking cash lineups into single-entry contests, we see this flaw even more so. The Dolphins and Vikings stacks of Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill and Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson are ways to add correlation leverage to otherwise chalky WRs. I would say the same of Christian Kirk, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Williams to a lesser degree.
As for the Seahawks, well, it’s the Rams. The Rams defense is supposed to be horrendous, and Geno Smith is coming off of a near 4,300-yard season, with a killer WR1 of his own in DK Metcalf and a strong WR2 in Tyler Lockett. If you’re a matchups player over a projections player, and you hate spending up too high for WRs, the Seahawks are a stack for you.
QUARTERBACK
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