NFL DFS FanDuel Ownership Projections: Week 10 Preview
In this space, we’ll preview FanDuel ownership projections for the Sunday main slate of Week 9 of the NFL DFS season. We’ll look at chalk. We’ll look at contrarian plays. We’ll look at plays that should be owned more than they will be. We’ll look at plays that should be owned less than they should be.
This isn’t a comprehensive look at ownership throughout the slate, but a peek into what stands out. The reasoning behind the analysis can be applied to dozens of other players on the slate.
NFL DFS Week 10 FanDuel Ownership Preview
- Joe Burrow ($8,200) – 15.29%
- Geno Smith ($6,900) – 13.32%
- Lamar Jackson (8,300) – 6.91%
- Tank Dell ($6,400) – 23.55%
- Kenneth Walker ($7,300) – 26.61%
- Dallas Cowboys DST ($5,200) – 13.26%
Week 10 NFL DFS ownership projections for FanDuel are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
FanDuel Ownership Notes
Chalk Roster Construction
Nico Collins has missed practice all week, so cheap Tan Dell with a young stud QB will be the chalk at WR with JaMarr Chase.
One chalky build will be the Joe Burrow to Chase stack with the Dell runback and one of Tony Polland or Kenneth Walker at RB with Devin Singletary to save at RB2. These are the lineups that are gonna spend down as much as possible at TE and DST to maximize what can be had at WR3 and flex.
The cheaper build will be Geno Smith to Tyler Lockett with the Terry McLaurin or Johan Dotson runback and the Pollard-Singletary pairing at RB. Dell is the likely WR3 here. With McLaurin, this leaves $19,600 to be spent on TE/DST/FLEX. I see this lineup construction taking off in ownership as we get closer to Sunday afternoon, more so than the CIN-HOU gamestack, because it allows us to play whoever we want at the FLEX. I would think a lot of Christian McCaffrey lineups will look like this.
C.J. Stroud isn’t gonna be chalk, but at ~10%, we can bet our ass that an extremely high percentage of Stroud lineups will contain Chase and Dell together, affording the field to spend up on Pollard and Walker.
It isn’t enough to know how much individual players will be owned. We should think through the most common player combos to make our decisions. It’s pretty simple if you play about with LUHQ enough.
Going Naked
With those lineups dominating the field and stacking being the common strategy, Lamar Jackson is slated to go overlooked.
Zay Flowers doesn’t project all too well, and Mark Andrews is a bit pricey, so we can be different by running the Chase-Dell skinny stack with Lamar at QB instead of Burrow. Laram is slightly better projected than Burrow in median and smashes the field in terms of ceiling projection.
We can run Lamar with the CIN-HOU and SEA-WAS skinny stacks, dumpster dive at TE/DST, and have a lot of money left for the RBs. If we’re gonna stack chalk, this is one way to do it.
Pivots
There isn’t a pivot off of Dell chalk. We probably just play him and diversify around him. Chase is a tough pivot, but Tee Higgins can make some sense.
I just know that I want at least one 49er in most of my lineups. No one’s gonna play Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel and ownership will stay in the mid-teens on McCaffrey. SF-JAX is gonna go under-owned as a whole, despite a lot of pieces projecting pretty well.
Our biggest, simplest pivot will be off of the Cowboys DST. Sure, the Giants are a disaster. They were a disaster with a healthy Daniel Jones. They’re exponentially worse with Tommy DeVito at QB. That said, the Cowboys’ salary is astronomical, they’ll be heavily owned (despite the salary), and the Giants can play it safe and just run the ball a ton regardless of gamescript.
I’m kinda interested in the Chargers. Jared Goff can be a bit of a disaster away from the dome. We shouldn’t expect this DST to break the slate, but at $3,500, why not? I’m not saying to play the Chargers. I’m saying that we should think about spending down when nearly a third of the field is spending up to the Cowboys, Niners, and Seahawks.