NFL DFS Week 14 Preview: Snap Counts, Air Yards, and Usage Facts
In this space, we’re gonna look at NFL snap counts and usage facts, including wide receiver air yards, to consider as you make NFL DFS picks and Week 14 projections.
Check out RotoGrinders’ NFL DFS Usage tool to view NFL air yards and snap counts for every player ahead NFL Week 14 — a free app for DFS players or sports bettors specializing in NFL props.
NFL DFS TIPS WEEK 14
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts at Giants
PHI is a -6.5 favorite thisweek, raising the question: will Jalen Hurts even need to run. Hurts rushes when PHI has won by six-plus:
Week 2 — 11
Week 3 — 9
Week 4 — 16
Week 6 — 9
Week 8 — 2
Week 9 — 9
Week 12 — 17
Week 13 — 5
The data is pretty inconclusive, but Hurts’ only two games with five or fewer rushes came in total blowouts. So where we project a PHI blowout, we could stay away. Bringing us to what this blurb is really about: running Hurts naked.
If Hurts is running in the 12-to-15-attempt range, we’re likely looking at a tighter scoreboard. Saquon Barkley or Darius Slayton are near must-plays with Hurts as bringbacks.
Joe Burrow vs. Browns
CIN (26.75) has a slightly higher implied total than BUF (26.50), so we have to pay attention. Joe Burrow hasn’t been throwing the ball an extraordinary amount of time and his aDOT is pretty humble. Since their Week 10 bye, Burrow has 42, 42, and 36 dropbacks with a 7.23 aDOT.
CLE is 21st in pass defense DVOA but 31st in rush defense DVOA, so it’s possible that CIN build a large enough lead early enough that this is The Joe Mixon or Samaje Perine Show.
That said, Ja’Marr Chase should have the rust shaken off, so we could see more shots. If we play Burrow, it’s for those Chase shots downfield.
Dak Prescott vs. Texans
DAL should have the highest implied total on the slate, but it comes with a huge blowout in store against an incompetent football team. This competence is relevant in two ways: (1) DAL only cares about running the ball on offense; and (2) do we really wanna bank on a Kyle Allen WR as a bringback?
Besides their Week 10 shootout lose to GB, Prescott hasn’t dropped back more than 31 times all seasons. This week should continue that trend. CeeDee Lamb has had double-digit targets in six game this season, so he’s in play, despite the low passing volume, but we need something eye-popping from HOU to feel decent about Prescott.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard vs. Texans
We can consider this timeshare backfield of Ezekiel Elliott and Tonny Pollard because Mike McCarthy is running so much and HOU is 28th in rush defense DVOA. This is a true timeshare, but both guys are getting decent market shares of the offense because fo the overall rushing volume. Since Elliott returned from injury, he’s seen 16, 17, and 20 opportunities to Pollard’s 21, 20, and 15. Considering DAL is a monstrous -17 favorite and the matchup, they’re passable.
Christian McCaffrey vs. Buccaneers
The 49ers wanna make the playoffs with a healthy Christian McCaffrey, but with Elijah Mitchell (knee) out, McCaffrey might need a full workload to get the W necessary to get them into the playoffs in the first place. Without Jimmy Garoppolo, we kinda’ know what this offense is gonna look like, because of the head coach. A very run-heavy head coach. In the past, this coach has infuriated us with timeshares, but CMC is in own for emergencies like this.
The 49ers are favored, despite no QB. CMC had 27 opportunities in Week 13.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson at Lions
The weather is cold across the country, so dome games’ values go way up. Since Week 9, there are five NFL players averaging double-digit targets:
Davante Adams (13.6)
Justin Jefferson (11.2)
Stefon Diggs (11.0)
Chris Godwin (11.0)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (10.0)
Jefferson’s 139.8 air yards per game over that stretch is second only to Adams’ 151.0.
With two guys averaging double-digit targets recently in the same dome game carrying a 53.5-point total and a tight 2.5-point spread, the combos make themselves.
Darius Slayton vs. Eagles
PHI is slated by Vegas to keep NYG under 20 points. PHI is second in pass defense DVOA, but 23rd in rush DVOA. Saquon Barkley should have a solid start to this game, but Darius Slayton should be the one finishing this game when NYG plays catch-up. Over the last three weeks, Slayton has 10, 6, and 8 targets but a whopping 14.78 aDOT. This comes out to an average of 112.7 air yards per game.
Tight End
Cade Otton at 49ers
Cade Otton saw 10 targets in Week 13, playing 82% of the snaps without Cameron Brate. Even if Brate is on the field, the Bucs like two TE sets. Brate will see a lot of the field, but Otton sees a good amount for the price with Brate on the field — 56% of snaps in games where Brate was active to Brate’s 56%. Is 10 targets a sticky datapoint? Hell no, but Tom Brady trusts him and SF is gonna make it difficult to get the ball to the WRs.
Image Credit: Imagn