NFL DFS Week 15 Preview: Snap Counts, Air Yards, and Usage Facts
In this space, we’re gonna look at NFL snap counts and usage facts, including wide receiver air yards, to consider as you make NFL DFS picks and Week 15 projections.
Check out RotoGrinders’ NFL DFS Usage tool to view NFL air yards and snap counts for every player ahead NFL Week 15 — a free app for DFS players or sports bettors specializing in NFL props.
NFL DFS TIPS WEEK 15
Quarterback
Justin Herbert vs. Titans
The passing barrage continues for the Chargers. Justin Herbert has dropped back more than anyone in the league and the passing attack has ramped up in recent weeks.
Herbert’s dropbacks since Week 12:
Week 12 — 54
Week 13 — 54
Week 14 — 56
Kennan Allen runs a lot of short stuff as an extension to LAC’s rushing attack. He’s seen 7, 14, and 14 targets over this stretch. LAC is very confident going extremely pass-heavy with Allen healthy.
TEN is a massive funnel defense, according to DVOA. They’re 1st against the run, but 28th against the pass.
Tom Brady vs. Bengals
Uselessly early projections hate Tom Brady, but that should change as the week goes on. TB has no rushing attack on which to lean and they’re putting the ball in Brady’s hands to manufacture wins.
Brady’s dropbacks since their Week 1 bye:
Week 12 — 46
Week 13 — 55
Week 14 — 56
And this isn’t just a recent phenomenon. He dropped back 46 times in Week 3, 53 in Weeks 4 and 5, 51 in Week 7, 47 in Week 8, and 58 in Week 9.
We generally don’t love immobile QBs, but this is massive usage in a game that could shoot out.
Colt McCoy at Broncos
Let’s stick with dropbacks for a second. When a QB goes down, coaches tend to lean on the run and short passes more. ARI isn’t doing that. Colt McCoy had 40 dropbacks in Week 10, 39 in Week 11, and 50 in Week 14. And it’s not just dinking and dunking. McCoy had 301 air yards in Week 14.
This game is projected by Vegas to suck big time, and DEN is a bit of a run-funnel defense, but the sheer opportunity McCoy gets with no Kyler Murray (ACL) could put him in play for us.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs vs. Patriots
I don’t know what’s gonna happen with Rhamondre Stevenson this week, but he’ll get owned more Josh Jacobs because he’s cheaper and LV is a disaster. And what psychopath would play them together?
Jacobs is the most used back in the NFL this season with 24.8 opportunities per game. Derrick Henry is 2nd with 23.8, Saquon Barkley, 3rd with 23.5, and Jonathan Taylor, 4th with 23.3. That’s it for guys with more than 21. Since Week 10, Jacobs has been leaned on to a remarkable (and sometimes stupid) degree:
Week 10 — 29
Week 11 — 28
Week 12 — 40
Week 13 — 28
Week 14 — 29
NE doesn’t have a blow-away offense, so it’s highly unlikely that the score runs away from Josh McDaniels’ gameplan of endlessly feeding Jacobs the rock. With LV as a -1.5 favorite, paying up for Jacobs is safe volume.
Austin Ekeler vs. Titans
Either Austin Ekeler or Keenan Allen will get a lot of passing volume, but the two negatively correlate due to their low aDOT’s. In Week 12, Ekeler saw 15 targets to Allen’s 7; in Week 13, Ekeler saw six to Allen’s 14; in Week 14, Ekeler saw eight to Allen’s 14. Six and eight are great, but we saw only 5, 10, and 15 rushes from Ekeler in those game. 15 and eight, again, is great; but we’re paying in the mid-$8k range for Ekeler, so we’d prefer more consistency.
Alvin Kamara vs. Falcons
When Alvin Kamara came back from injury in Week 5, he had 29 opportunities, followed up with 28, 20, and 29. But his usage has trailed off in a huge way since Week 9:
Week 9 — 13
Week 10 — 12
Week 11 — 17
Week 12 — 14
Week 13 — 15
The hope is that against the worst run defense on the slate, according to DVOA, NO will come out of their bye with more ways to get Kamara the ball in his hands via the rushing and the passing game. That said, they could’ve plotted a way to go more thunder-lightning with Mark Ingram.
Never fall to the myth of rational coaching, but this is an excellent spot for the NO rushing attack— home in a dome, excellent matchup, -4 favorites.
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith at Bears
Player A targets since Week 8 — 7.0 per game
Player A aDOT since Week 8 — 12.61
Player B target since Week 8 — 7.4 per game
Player B aDOT since Week 8 — 9.28
Player A is A.J. Brown and Player B is DeVonta Smith. PHI had their bye in Week 7 and has seemed to make the conscious effort to spread the ball around.
The aDOT favors Brown a ton, but salary favors Smith. PHI should blow out CHI and one of these two could score two TD’s to get there.
CHI is 31st in pass defense DVOA — 2nd to last behind LV by a wide gap.
Ja’Marr Chase at Buccaneers
Ja’Marr Chase saw a number eight targets in Week 13 when he came back from injury. But a whopping 15 in Week 14. Traveling to TB, even as a -3.5 favorites, CIN should have to throw to get and maintain that lead. These are two good not-great defenses, so we can expect some long shots to be taken.
Tee Higgins has the slightly higher aDOT, but Chase is still at 9.43 and has the higher air yards share at 37.9% to Higgins’ 33.2%.
Tight End
Evan Engram vs. Cowboys
Trying to find a TE who isn’t expensive, gets the ball thrown to him, and doesn’t suck is really hard, so when a cheap Evan Engram used 15 targets to light the world on fire, it stands out.
The problem is that JAX faces DAL, who leads the league in pass defense DVOA. On the other hand, it’s a great gamescript for the JAX passing attack and they do have a 21.5 implied total. If Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are gobbled up, Engram could see the opportunity again. Maybe not 15 targets, but why not eight or ten?
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