NFL DFS FanDuel Ownership Projections: Week 16 Preview
In this space, we’ll preview FanDuel ownership projections for the Sunday main slate of Week 16 of the NFL DFS season. We’ll look at chalk. We’ll look at contrarian plays. We’ll look at plays that should be owned more than they will be. We’ll look at plays that should be owned less than they should be.
This isn’t a comprehensive look at ownership throughout the slate, but a peek into what stands out. The reasoning behind the analysis can be applied to dozens of other players on the slate.
NFL DFS Week 16 FanDuel Ownership Preview
- Tyreek Hill ($10,000) – 16.57%
- Justin Jefferson ($9,200) – 14.18%
- CeeDee Lamb ($9,400) – 14.18%
- Justin Fields ($8,300) – 16.55%
- Arizona Cardinals DST ($3,300) – 12.61%
- Breece Hall ($7,400) – 3.96%
- Bijan Robinson ($7,100) – 6.00%
Week 16 NFL DFS ownership projections for FanDuel are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
FanDuel Ownership Notes
The WR Cluster
Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb are in nut spots against each other in a shootout. Jamming them both in is really hard with their price tags, but we should want Hill with a Jake Ferguson or Lamb with a Jayden Waddle in a lot of lineups. Dak Prescott is looking to catch some ownership (8.09%), but not a ton. I’m more interested in the 5.17% Tua Tagovailoa anyway, though, even if the ownership were flipped.
Remember that we’re dealing with a nine-game slate, so ownership in the teens isn’t really chalk qua chalk. The decision isn’t whether or not to play these studs but how.
As for Justin Jefferson, he’s Justin Jefferson, no matter who’s under center. This week, he’ll get Nick Mullens chuckin’ footballs at him. We should expect the gameplan to favor Jefferson heavily, as we’ve seen this never change with the QB. Though the quantity of his targets should be high, the quality will be lower than they were with Kirk Cousins and Josh Dobbs. We should still be exposed to Jefferson, but if there’s one of the three on which I wanna go underweight, it’s Jefferson.
The field is gonna try to save a lot of money on Terry McLaurin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Calvin Ridley. I’d rather spend up to underowned studs at the position and save with more ownership discounts at RB.
Low-Owned RBs
I can’t tell you to save at RB without telling you with whom we can save. Ty Chandler, Devin Singletary, Aaron Jones, and Chuba Hubbard are all grading out well per-dollar, but will also all catch some significant ownership. Especially Singletary at 28.77%.
We can spend in the mid-range on Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson for similar ceilings per-dollar at fractions of the ownership.
Hall will be leaned on with a third-string QB under center as a home favorite. Before only two targets last week, Hall had seen 9, 8, 9, and 6 targets in the prior four games, so the Jets are clearly doing everything possible to get the ball his way.
Robinson isn’t a volume monster, but he’s incredibly efficient and is also a home favorite in a run-heavy offense. His volume is all over the place, but before only 10 opportunities last week, he saw, 17, 23, 22, and 24 in the prior four weeks.
Justin Fields
I love playing Justin Fields under the radar in softer matchups where he should be running.
He’s not under the radar. He will be the most-owned QB on the slate.
The matchup isn’t tough, but it isn’t soft. The Cardinals have allowed a middle-of-the-road 219.3 pass yards per game. Hardly dominant, sure, but hardly exploitable.
And I’m not entirely convinced Fields will have to run. The Cardinals are dead-last pressure rate (16.7%).
Everything here just looks like an inefficient Fields game where it’s questionable how aggressive he’ll really get.
I hate spending ownership dollars on QB. This week will be no different. Usually, it’s tough to spend down on FanDuel for QB, but this is a week to give it a whirl more than usual. Mullens is overpriced at $7,000, but still grades out well per-dollar and his price tag is reflected in his 4.00% ownership. C.J. Beathard (4.54%) is only $6,100 and allows us to correlate with Ridley for an underowned ownership combo. Joe Flacco is $7,100, but he’s had 44, 45, and 44 pass attempts in his three starts and only coming in at 2.71% ownership.
Image Credit: Getty Images