NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - Week 5
NFL DFS season is in full swing as Week 5 approaches, and our expert analysts are breaking down NFL DFS lineup optimizer picks and projections for FanDuel and DraftKings. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
With four weeks of data and “eye tests” under our belts, it’s starting to feel like we know the identity of most teams now, and it should be easier to spot top p/$ plays on both sites as we have a strong underlying knowledge of top matchups, usage rates, and positional value now. Teams like the Bengals and Jets, who are both 1-3, are in pretty much must-win situations this week, and they both happen to draw fantastic matchups against the Cardinals and Broncos, respectively. Tee Higgins is highly questionable with a rib injury so it’s looking more and more like a potential monster week for Chase and/or Mixon (Higgins is officially out now), while Breece Hall has been freed from any usage restrictions, and is in an absolute smash spot at a fantastic price on both sites.
The Chiefs-Vikings matchup leads all games in projected total at 52.5, and with just a 3.5-point spread, there are plenty of top targets on both sides. PHI/LAR is the only other game with a projected total above 50 right now, and it would shock no one if it ended up being the highest-scoring game of the week. The Rams offense has been a huge surprise so far, and now they are adding Cooper Kupp to the equation. I’m not expecting Kupp to play 80%+ of the snaps right away, but he should see at least 40-60% of the snaps, which is plenty for him to break a slate and limit the ceiling of Nacua.
Jonathan Taylor is the other big name eligible to return this week, and with full practices under his belt there’s a good chance he’ll be on the field for the Colts (officially available now but on a snap count). It’s a brutal matchup with a top Titans rush defense, and like Kupp I’m not expecting Taylor to see a full workload right away as he gets back into game shape, but having someone like Taylor behind him should help the upside of Anthony Richardson as defenses will have to focus on a top threat in the backfield. In other injury news, I’d be shocked if Saquon Barkley suited up this week even though he’s officially questionable, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs are doubtful while J. Reynolds & J. Williams are both Q for DET, Kyle Philips is back for the Titans while Burks will remain out, the Ravens will get back Bateman and possibly OBJ, and we’ll see if Javonte Williams is able to suit up with his hip flexor injury, as Perine/McLaughlin would be intriguing GPP plays if Williams sat.
This is also the first week for byes, with the Chargers, Browns, Bucs, and Seahawks all off this week.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for DraftKings
With no Allen, CMC, Pollard, Diggs, Adams, or Lamb on this slate, we only have 7 players priced above $7,900, and that could drop to 6 if Barkley doesn’t play. The RB position is a fantastic source of salary relief as everyone but Barkley, Robinson, and Henry is priced below $7k. DST is another position to save salary on as only the Ravens are priced above $4k, and we have some strong value options like the Titans at $2,400 and the Saints at $3,000. WR is looking like a top spend-up position with Jefferson, Hill, Brown, and Chase all in potential smash spots, and both Kelce & Hockenson should draw plenty of exposure at TE in the highest projected game of the slate.
Alvin Kamara ($6,300)
I took more of a wait-and-see approach with Kamara last week, and boy did I regret that, as we all saw him crush value in PPR formats with 13 catches on 14 targets. Even though he only had 33 receiving yards and 55 rush yards on 11 attempts with no TDs, Kamara easily went for almost 4x value due to his 13 catches, and with his price only increasing $200, I think he is one of the top cash game targets on a full PPR site like DraftKings. He and the Saints DST are one of my favorite correlation plays of the slate, and even if the Saints fall behind, it will only increase Kamara’s passing game upside.
JaMarr Chase ($7,900) / Michael Wilson ($3,700)
I’m highlighting these two together as they are a great correlation play facing off in the same game, and using Wilson will make it much easier to fit in Chase, who is already a great value for under $8k. Wilson went off last week for a 7-76-2 line, and his price only went up $200, making easily one of the best p/$ cash game targets of the slate. Chase has yet to score a TD this year but is still averaging over 15 FPPG, and this week the Bengals will be without Higgins, which should help Chase see 12+ targets against a Cardinals pass defense allowing 242.5 pass yards/game.
Breece Hall ($5,400) / Garrett Wilson ($6,000)
The Jets draw the best matchup of the week against a Broncos defense ranked 30th against the pass and 32nd against the run. Robert Salah has said that Hall is no longer on any kind of restriction, so it’s safe to assume he’ll have a 15-20 touch floor, and in the best possible matchup for an RB, there is no way I’m fading him in cash games for just $5,400. Wilson has seen a $700 price drop from last week after he had 9 catches on 14 targets, and against a Denver defense allowing 285.5 pass yards/game, I’m finding it hard to not use him and Breece in my main build. If you do go with both of them, then I honestly don’t mind going with Zach Wilson ($4,900) at QB for a full stack, as he should easily pay off his price if Garrett or Breece have big games through the air.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks for FanDuel
Salaries are tighter on FanDuel compared to DraftKings, as we have 17 players priced at $8k or higher. The Saints ($4,000) and Titans ($3,500) are still my favorite value DSTs, while the Lions ($4,800) are my top spend-up DST for cash games if you have the extra salary. TJ Hockenson is looking like a top value at TE as he’s $2k cheaper than Kelce and almost $1k cheaper than Andrews, and I will still be all over Hall ($6,500), Kamara ($7,100), M. Wilson ($5,300), and Chase ($8,700). Let’s check out three more plays I’m loving as top p/$ cash game targets.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,600)
Pacheco has seen increased touches every week so far, leading up to a big game last week with 158 total yards and a TD on 23 touches. The Chiefs have one of the highest team totals of the slate (28) and are playing in the highest projected scoring game of the slate, and as 3.5 point road favorites, it should be a positive game script for Pacheco to see a similar amount of touches as last week. His price went up only $700 from last week, and if he has another big game, this will probably be our last opportunity to play him for under $7k.
CJ Stroud ($7,200)
The Texans are 1.5-point road underdogs against Atlanta, which should lead to Stroud having to throw the ball a ton. In both games the Texans lost this year Stroud had over 43 pass attempts, while he had only 30 pass attempts in each of their two wins. He has 2 TD passes in three straight games with no INTs, and as the 10th priced QB, makes for a fantastic value option at the QB spot, and I like stacking him with Nico Collins ($7,000) who remains a bit underpriced too.
WanDale Robinson ($5,400)
The Giants are huge 11.5-point road underdogs against Miami, so I’m expecting them to be throwing a ton playing from behind all game. Robinson saw a huge bump in playing time last week after being eased in week 3, with a 64% snap share and 20% target share, and at this low of a price I think he is very comparable to Michael Wilson ($5,300) as one of the best p/$ WRs of the slate for cash games, and someone that could be the difference in GPPs at likely pretty low ownership.
Use Our DFS Lineup Optimizer for Week 5
Make sure to check out our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to get a great look at even more top projected plays. It is by far the best place to build a large number of lineups quickly using your personalized build rules, ownership preferences, and stacks you want covered. You can also look at projected ownership to help you decide between players if you’d rather get leverage on the field with someone likely to see much lower ownership than similar plays at his position or price point.
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