NFL First Look: Week 12 Preview
The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.
Color Coding
1) Numbers in BLUE represent the “elite” category, in approximately the top 25th percentile.
2) Numbers in GREEN represent the “above-average” category, in approximately the top 50th percentile.
3) Numbers in YELLOW represent the “below-average” category, in approximately the bottom 50th percentile.
4) Numbers in RED represent the “poor” category, in approximately the bottom 25th percentile.
Week 11 Thoughts
— The Saints’ offense takes a bit hit on the road, but Michael Thomas has been efficient with his targets every week.
— The Panthers are really struggling to score points right now, yet at 4-6 they are only two games behind the Falcons for the division lead.
— Le’Veon Bell’s touchdown drought is long behind him. With cold weather looming, he’s going to be in the mix for top RB score every week.
— Cody Kessler suffered his second concussion of the season and may be shut down for the season. My early Week 12 prediction is that the Browns beat the Giants and pick of their first win of the season.
— Joe Flacco may be paid like one, but he is not an elite quarterback. Steve Smith on the other hand continues to defy father time.
— In a game where the Cowboys couldn’t get anything going on the ground, Ezekiel Elliott still had 95 rushing yards. And I think this Dak Prescott guy is pretty good at football.
— My poor Jaguars. Something needs to change in Jacksonville. I only have so many barf bags left.
— Theo Riddick is clearly the most productive running back in Detroit. Look for him to get more snaps against the Vikings’ stout run defense.
— Marcus Mariota continued his hot streak with a nice game against the Colts. I’ve been on the fence for a while, but I’m a believer now.
— Andrew Luck suffered a concussion on Sunday and is likely going to sit on Thanksgiving. Scott Tolzien, come on down!
— LeSean McCoy was one of the many star players that suffered an injury in Week 11, but he is tentatively expected to play this week.
— It was painful seeing A.J. Green tear his hamstring, both for my eyes and my wallet. Tyler Eifert and Brandon LaFell will have major roles now.
— The Buccaneers handed the Chiefs their third loss of the season and their first loss at home. Dare I say Jameis Winston is underrated?
— If you ever want to tilt an NFL game, roster anyone from the Chiefs (this includes their defense).
— Jay Cutler silenced his critics in the first half against the Giants. Someone at halftime must have reminded him that he was Jay Cutler.
— The Giants are 7-3 and the NFC East has more teams than any other division in football. We have now entered the Twilight Zone.
— David Johnson is matchup-proof. Actually, he has benefitted from tougher matchups because Bruce Arians is trying everything to get Carson Palmer going against bad defenses.
— Stefon Diggs only finished with six receptions for 37 yards, but he is going to be a PPR monster the rest of the way.
— Did you watch Jared Goff in his NFL debut against the Dolphins? Yeah, me neither.
— LeGarrette Blount scores all the touchdowns against the Seahawks and Tom Brady scores all the touchdowns against the Niners. Two thumbs down.
— I said this last week as well, but Russell Wilson is officially back to being good Russ.
— Aaron Rodgers continues to rack up incredible stats and the Packers’ defense is only helping the matter.
— Kirk Cousins at home is thing.
— Derek Carr led the Raiders to another come from behind win. They are 8-2 and their defense is just finally starting to play well.
NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines
| Road Team | Home Team | Vegas Line | Over/Under | Date | Time | Stadium | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | at | Detroit Lions | DET-2.5 | 43.0 | Thu, Nov 24 | 12:30 PM | Ford Field |
| Washington Redskins | at | Dallas Cowboys | DAL-7.5 | 51.0 | Thu, Nov 24 | 4:30 PM | AT&T Stadium |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | at | Indianapolis Colts | PIT-8.5 | 47.0 | Thu, Nov 24 | 8:30 PM | Lucas Oil Stadium |
| Arizona Cardinals | at | Atlanta Falcons | ATL-4.0 | 50.5 | Sun, Nov 27 | 1:00 PM | Georgia Dome |
| Cincinnati Bengals | at | Baltimore Ravens | BAL-4.5 | 40.5 | Sun, Nov 27 | 1:00 PM | M&T Bank Stadium |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | at | Buffalo Bills | BUF-7.5 | 45.5 | Sun, Nov 27 | 1:00 PM | Ralph Wilson Stadium |
| Los Angeles Rams | at | New Orleans Saints | NO -7.5 | 45.5 | Sun, Nov 27 | 1:00 PM | Superdome |
| New York Giants | at | Cleveland Browns | NYG-7.0 | 44.5 | Sun, Nov 27 | 1:00 PM | FirstEnergy Stadium |
| San Diego Chargers | at | Houston Texans | HOU-1.0 | 47.0 | Sun, Nov 27 | 1:00 PM | NRG Stadium |
| San Francisco 49ers | at | Miami Dolphins | MIA-7.5 | 45.5 | Sun, Nov 27 | 1:00 PM | Sun Life Stadium |
| Tennessee Titans | at | Chicago Bears | TEN-5.5 | 42.0 | Sun, Nov 27 | 1:00 PM | Soldier Field |
| Seattle Seahawks | at | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | SEA-5.5 | 45.0 | Sun, Nov 27 | 4:05 PM | Raymond James Stadium |
| Carolina Panthers | at | Oakland Raiders | OAK-3.5 | 48.0 | Sun, Nov 27 | 4:25 PM | O.com Coliseum |
| Kansas City Chiefs | at | Denver Broncos | DEN-3.5 | 39.5 | Sun, Nov 27 | 4:25 PM | Sports Authority Field |
| New England Patriots | at | New York Jets | NE -7.5 | 47.0 | Sun, Nov 27 | 8:30 PM | MetLife Stadium |
| Green Bay Packers | at | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI-3.5 | 47.0 | Mon, Nov 28 | 8:30 PM | Lincoln Financial Field |
Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups
Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.
| Offense | Spread | Implied Total | Matchup | Total DVOA | vs. PASS | vs. RUSH | vs. RB (Pass) | vs. WR1 | vs. WR2 | vs. TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | -7.5 | 29.3 | Washington | 21 | 14 | 30 | 3 | 20 | 32 | 23 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -8.5 | 27.8 | at Indianapolis | 31 | 30 | 32 | 31 | 25 | 16 | 31 |
| New England Patriots | -7.5 | 27.3 | at N.Y. Jets | 24 | 29 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 31 | 15 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -4.0 | 27.3 | Arizona | 4 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 4 |
| Buffalo Bills | -7.5 | 26.5 | Jacksonville | 17 | 13 | 28 | 1 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| Miami Dolphins | -7.5 | 26.5 | San Francisco | 25 | 17 | 31 | 17 | 31 | 23 | 8 |
| New Orleans Saints | -7.5 | 26.5 | Los Angeles | 10 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 14 |
| New York Giants | -7.0 | 25.8 | at Cleveland | 30 | 31 | 29 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 32 |
| Oakland Raiders | -3.5 | 25.8 | Carolina | 15 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 6 | 24 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -3.5 | 25.3 | Green Bay | 12 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 29 | 10 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -5.5 | 25.3 | at Tampa Bay | 14 | 15 | 16 | 27 | 15 | 25 | 5 |
| Houston Texans | -1.0 | 24.0 | San Diego | 11 | 10 | 17 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| Tennessee Titans | -5.5 | 23.8 | at Chicago | 16 | 16 | 18 | 11 | 21 | 20 | 21 |
| Arizona Cardinals | + 4.0 | 23.3 | at Atlanta | 26 | 22 | 26 | 26 | 23 | 8 | 16 |
| San Diego Chargers | + 1.0 | 23.0 | at Houston | 13 | 11 | 24 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 2 |
| Detroit Lions | -2.5 | 22.8 | Minnesota | 6 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -4.5 | 22.5 | Cincinnati | 22 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 28 | 29 |
| Carolina Panthers | + 3.5 | 22.3 | at Oakland | 28 | 24 | 27 | 29 | 7 | 17 | 17 |
| Green Bay Packers | + 3.5 | 21.8 | at Philadelphia | 1 | 1 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 18 | 3 |
| Washington Redskins | + 7.5 | 21.8 | at Dallas | 19 | 25 | 6 | 22 | 16 | 5 | 30 |
| Denver Broncos | -3.5 | 21.5 | Kansas City | 9 | 8 | 19 | 10 | 19 | 9 | 11 |
| Minnesota Vikings | + 2.5 | 20.3 | at Detroit | 32 | 32 | 25 | 28 | 22 | 15 | 28 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | + 5.5 | 19.8 | Seattle | 5 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 22 |
| New York Jets | + 7.5 | 19.8 | New England | 18 | 27 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 13 | 25 |
| Indianapolis Colts | + 8.5 | 19.3 | Pittsburgh | 20 | 21 | 14 | 14 | 29 | 11 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | + 7.5 | 19.0 | at New Orleans | 29 | 28 | 21 | 32 | 4 | 19 | 26 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | + 7.5 | 19.0 | at Buffalo | 23 | 23 | 22 | 12 | 32 | 10 | 27 |
| San Francisco 49ers | + 7.5 | 19.0 | at Miami | 7 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 26 | 2 | 7 |
| Cleveland Browns | + 7.0 | 18.8 | N.Y. Giants | 8 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| Chicago Bears | + 5.5 | 18.3 | Tennessee | 27 | 26 | 15 | 30 | 14 | 21 | 20 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | + 3.5 | 18.0 | at Denver | 3 | 2 | 23 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | + 4.5 | 18.0 | at Baltimore | 2 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 24 | 4 | 1 |
Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups
Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.
| Offense | Spread | Implied Total | Matchup | QB | RB | WR | TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | -7.5 | 29.3 | Washington | 7 | 32 | 3 | 24 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -8.5 | 27.8 | at Indianapolis | 27 | 28 | 23 | 24 |
| New England Patriots | -7.5 | 27.3 | at N.Y. Jets | 26 | 17 | 27 | 27 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -4.0 | 27.3 | Arizona | 6 | 6 | 13 | 2 |
| Buffalo Bills | -7.5 | 26.5 | Jacksonville | 12 | 22 | 19 | 4 |
| Miami Dolphins | -7.5 | 26.5 | San Francisco | 19 | 30 | 15 | 15 |
| New Orleans Saints | -7.5 | 26.5 | Los Angeles | 17 | 3 | 31 | 18 |
| New York Giants | -7.0 | 25.8 | at Cleveland | 31 | 26 | 28 | 30 |
| Oakland Raiders | -3.5 | 25.8 | Carolina | 24 | 3 | 20 | 31 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -3.5 | 25.3 | Green Bay | 7 | 6 | 17 | 10 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -5.5 | 25.3 | at Tampa Bay | 29 | 24 | 29 | 16 |
| Houston Texans | -1.0 | 24.0 | San Diego | 17 | 27 | 7 | 23 |
| Tennessee Titans | -5.5 | 23.8 | at Chicago | 11 | 8 | 29 | 7 |
| Arizona Cardinals | + 4.0 | 23.3 | at Atlanta | 28 | 29 | 25 | 29 |
| San Diego Chargers | + 1.0 | 23.0 | at Houston | 2 | 23 | 4 | 2 |
| Detroit Lions | -2.5 | 22.8 | Minnesota | 4 | 12 | 2 | 10 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -4.5 | 22.5 | Cincinnati | 30 | 18 | 5 | 32 |
| Carolina Panthers | + 3.5 | 22.3 | at Oakland | 23 | 18 | 25 | 16 |
| Green Bay Packers | + 3.5 | 21.8 | at Philadelphia | 9 | 13 | 5 | 1 |
| Washington Redskins | + 7.5 | 21.8 | at Dallas | 14 | 9 | 7 | 28 |
| Denver Broncos | -3.5 | 21.5 | Kansas City | 13 | 15 | 24 | 5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | + 2.5 | 20.3 | at Detroit | 32 | 21 | 21 | 24 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | + 5.5 | 19.8 | Seattle | 10 | 2 | 15 | 8 |
| New York Jets | + 7.5 | 19.8 | New England | 25 | 11 | 12 | 20 |
| Indianapolis Colts | + 8.5 | 19.3 | Pittsburgh | 16 | 25 | 11 | 13 |
| Los Angeles Rams | + 7.5 | 19.0 | at New Orleans | 21 | 31 | 22 | 14 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | + 7.5 | 19.0 | at Buffalo | 20 | 10 | 18 | 19 |
| San Francisco 49ers | + 7.5 | 19.0 | at Miami | 22 | 5 | 32 | 10 |
| Cleveland Browns | + 7.0 | 18.8 | N.Y. Giants | 3 | 20 | 10 | 20 |
| Chicago Bears | + 5.5 | 18.3 | Tennessee | 15 | 14 | 9 | 22 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | + 3.5 | 18.0 | at Denver | 1 | 15 | 1 | 6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | + 4.5 | 18.0 | at Baltimore | 5 | 1 | 14 | 9 |
Plays Per Game & Pace of Play
| Offense | Matchup | Team Plays PG | Opp. Plays PG | Exp. Plays PG | Plays PG +/- | Team Pace | Opp. Pace | Exp. Pace | Game Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | Washington | 66.4 | 65.9 | 66.2 | -0.3 | 31.6 | 31.7 | 31.7 | 8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | at Indianapolis | 64.4 | 66.3 | 65.4 | 0.9 | 30.0 | 30.8 | 30.4 | 9 |
| New England Patriots | at N.Y. Jets | 63.1 | 62.6 | 62.9 | -0.3 | 30.2 | 30.9 | 30.6 | 2 |
| Atlanta Falcons | Arizona | 61.9 | 71.1 | 66.5 | 4.6 | 28.7 | 30.5 | 29.6 | 16 |
| Buffalo Bills | Jacksonville | 62.4 | 65.4 | 63.9 | 1.5 | 29.8 | 29.4 | 29.6 | 11 |
| Miami Dolphins | San Francisco | 56.8 | 63.1 | 59.9 | 3.2 | 31.6 | 25.6 | 28.6 | 5 |
| New Orleans Saints | Los Angeles | 69.1 | 62.4 | 65.8 | -3.3 | 28.8 | 31.7 | 30.3 | 12 |
| New York Giants | at Cleveland | 62.3 | 59.9 | 61.1 | -1.2 | 27.3 | 30.1 | 28.7 | 7 |
| Oakland Raiders | Carolina | 67.0 | 67.3 | 67.2 | 0.2 | 31.1 | 31.4 | 31.3 | 13 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Green Bay | 64.7 | 66.3 | 65.5 | 0.8 | 31.6 | 29.8 | 30.7 | 4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | at Tampa Bay | 60.9 | 69.4 | 65.2 | 4.3 | 32.3 | 30.3 | 31.3 | 3 |
| Houston Texans | San Diego | 65.8 | 66.4 | 66.1 | 0.3 | 29.4 | 30.1 | 29.8 | 14 |
| Tennessee Titans | at Chicago | 63.2 | 59.3 | 61.3 | -1.9 | 33.7 | 30.8 | 32.3 | 1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | at Atlanta | 71.1 | 61.9 | 66.5 | -4.6 | 30.5 | 28.7 | 29.6 | 16 |
| San Diego Chargers | at Houston | 66.4 | 65.8 | 66.1 | -0.3 | 30.1 | 29.4 | 29.8 | 14 |
| Detroit Lions | Minnesota | 59.7 | 63.9 | 61.8 | 2.1 | 30.4 | 28.6 | 29.5 | 10 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati | 69.1 | 65.3 | 67.2 | -1.9 | 30.8 | 29.5 | 30.2 | 15 |
| Carolina Panthers | at Oakland | 67.3 | 67.0 | 67.2 | -0.2 | 31.4 | 31.1 | 31.3 | 13 |
| Green Bay Packers | at Philadelphia | 66.3 | 64.7 | 65.5 | -0.8 | 29.8 | 31.6 | 30.7 | 4 |
| Washington Redskins | at Dallas | 65.9 | 66.4 | 66.2 | 0.3 | 31.7 | 31.6 | 31.7 | 8 |
| Denver Broncos | Kansas City | 64.0 | 63.2 | 63.6 | -0.4 | 29.5 | 30.6 | 30.1 | 6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | at Detroit | 63.9 | 59.7 | 61.8 | -2.1 | 28.6 | 30.4 | 29.5 | 10 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Seattle | 69.4 | 60.9 | 65.2 | -4.3 | 30.3 | 32.3 | 31.3 | 3 |
| New York Jets | New England | 62.6 | 63.1 | 62.9 | 0.3 | 30.9 | 30.2 | 30.6 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Pittsburgh | 66.3 | 64.4 | 65.4 | -0.9 | 30.8 | 30.0 | 30.4 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | at New Orleans | 62.4 | 69.1 | 65.8 | 3.3 | 31.7 | 28.8 | 30.3 | 12 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | at Buffalo | 65.4 | 62.4 | 63.9 | -1.5 | 29.4 | 29.8 | 29.6 | 11 |
| San Francisco 49ers | at Miami | 63.1 | 56.8 | 59.9 | -3.2 | 25.6 | 31.6 | 28.6 | 5 |
| Cleveland Browns | N.Y. Giants | 59.9 | 62.3 | 61.1 | 1.2 | 30.1 | 27.3 | 28.7 | 7 |
| Chicago Bears | Tennessee | 59.3 | 63.2 | 61.3 | 1.9 | 30.8 | 33.7 | 32.3 | 1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | at Denver | 63.2 | 64.0 | 63.6 | 0.4 | 30.6 | 29.5 | 30.1 | 6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | at Baltimore | 65.3 | 69.1 | 67.2 | 1.9 | 29.5 | 30.8 | 30.2 | 15 |