NFL Futures Update: MVP and Super Bowl Betting Odds
With just five weeks left in the NFL season, time is winding down to place your NFL futures bets. You can still bet on NFL MVP, season leaders in rushing, passing, and receiving yards, and of course, the Super Bowl winner, among other futures options at online sports betting sites. Even though things are much clearer than they were a few short months ago when the 2019-20 NFL season kicked off , there’s still value to be found in the NFL futures market.
Best NFL Futures Bets — Super Bowl Odds
The New England Patriots are heavy favorites at roughly +300 odds across the online sports betting industry, followed by the Baltimore Ravens +500. Next up are two teams from the NFC, the New Orleans Saints +550 and San Francisco 49ers +700.
The NFL is wide open this year, and there’s not one team that looks head and shoulders above the rest, leading me to believe there’s value in betting on two teams that sit farther down the betting board.
Kansas City Chiefs +1000
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As I wrote about in Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Chiefs vs. Chargers, I thought last week was the time to buy low on the Chiefs +1200 to win the Super Bowl. In a way, I almost wanted the Chiefs to lose so we could get even better odds this week. Kansas City’s odds rose to +1000 after leaving Mexico City with a win, but I still think +1000 is a solid price to grab. Consider the Chiefs who, with largely the same roster they have now, were just one play away from beating the Patriots in Foxborough in the AFC Championship game less than a year ago, opened +600 to win the Super Bowl. We’re getting much better value betting them today. Of course, the road to Hard Rock Stadium in February likely won’t go through Arrowhead. Still, with injuries affecting Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, the duo has only played one full game together. Come January, the defending MVP and his favorite receiver will be the most dangerous duo in the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys +2500
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This pains me to write, and to be honest it’s not a bet I want to win. Though I’m originally from Texas, I can’t stand the Cowboys or their fans. They’re the same people who thought the Cowboys were the best team in the NFL after beating the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. They quickly came back down to Earth after the Cowboys dropped their next three games, including an embarrassing defeat to the New York Jets. But I won’t let my anti-Dallas bias keep me from recognizing a good bet.
Let’s face it; the NFC is up for grabs. Aside from having a lot of work left just to make the playoffs, I think Dallas is perfectly capable of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl if they do, in fact, make the playoffs. Moreover, this is a very similar spot to what we see with the Seattle Seahawks a week ago.
Before beating the 49ers as 6-point underdogs, the Seahawks were +3000 to win the Super Bowl. Following their overtime win in San Francisco, Seattle’s odds jumped to +1500. Do I think the Cowboys win in Foxborough this week? Probably not. But much like MVP candidate Russell Wilson and the Seahawks a week ago, if the Cowboys do pull off the road upset as 6-point underdogs, they’ll inevitably leap up the bettor board. If they lose, their odds likely won’t change a lot and they’ll still be in position to earn a playoff spot by beating out the Philadelphia Eagles and winning the NFC East.
You can find the Cowboys +2500 at William Hill, much better than the +2000 price tag at DraftKings, PointsBet and FanDuel. Of course, considering the Cowboys haven’t beaten one team with a winning record, I could be totally off.
Best NFL Futures Bets — MVP Odds
Speaking of the Dallas Cowboys, Dak Prescott has danced his way into the MVP conversation while throwing 21 touchdowns and leading the NFL in passing yards. Here’s a look at the top eight MVP candidates according to MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Lamar Jackson +150
- Russell Wilson +180
- Dak Prescott +1200
- Aaron Rodgers +1200
- Deshaun Watson +1200
- Patrick Mahomes +1600
- Christian McCaffrey +2200
- Dalvin Cook +2500
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Let’s break down the top three candidates.
Lamar Jackson +140 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jackson sprinted to the front of the NFL MVP odds sheet thanks to two huge wins over the past three weeks. The first game against the Patriots as Jackson accounted for three touchdowns — one through the air and two on the ground. On Sunday, Jackson picked apart the Houston Texans, throwing a quartet of touchdown passes and adding 86 yards with his legs. Jackson can do it all and is the MVP favorite for a reason. I don’t know how much value there is betting on Jackson now — it sure would have been great to bet him +6500 at the beginning of the season — but the Ravens do have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way with games against the Rams, Bills, Jets, Browns and Steelers.
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Russell Wilson +180
Wilson leads the league in touchdowns and QB rating (114.9). Wilson has thrown 23 touchdown passes and just two interceptions despite playing behind an offensive line that has consistently struggled to protect their franchise quarterback. With upcoming games against the Eagles and Vikings, there is reason for trepidation when it comes to Wilson’s MVP chances, but if the Seahawks can get past those games and beat the 49ers in Week 17 to clinch home-field advantage in the NFC, it’ll be tough not to give Wilson his first MVP trophy. One thing I don’t mind doing is betting on both Jackson and Wilson to win the MVP. They have a good lead on the rest of the field, a $100 bet on each would net you at minimum $40 Jackson wins and $80 if Wilson wins.
Dak Prescott +1200
Statistically, Prescott is as worthy of an MVP candidate as anyone, but he’s going to need some help from his team to win the award. Right now, the Cowboys are 6-4 and they have yet to beat a team with a winning record. The last six MVP winners have been on teams that have won at least 11 games and received a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Most of Dak’s numbers have come against bad defenses such as the Giants, Redskins and the Lions or in the second half with the Cowboys playing from behind against the Packers and Vikings. Heading into Week 12, it’s worth asking; would the Cowboys’ record look that much different if Andy Dalton was quarterback? With or without Dak, Dallas would probably beat the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. The narrative will change if Prescott leads the Cowboys to a Week 13 win against the Patriots this Sunday. Sunday could be a Prescott’s MVP moment, but the Cowboys don’t only need to beat the Patriots for Prescott to win the MVP. They’ll likely need to win four more games between Week 13 and 17.
Instead of betting on Prescott +1200 to win MVP, I’d rather bet the Cowboys moneyline against the Patriots and subsequently roll it over if the moneyline bet hits.
For more general betting tips, read our NFL betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images