NFL Grind Down: Week 11 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Rams | |||||||||
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Kansas City Chiefs
Notable injuries and suspensions: Watkins (Questionable – Foot)
Quarterback: I have no idea what Shakira did to Azteca Stadium back in October, but the NFL had to move this Chiefs-Rams game back to L.A. because the conditions of the field were so poor. Maybe the NFL should’ve gotten more creative than hosting NFL games on a field after Shakira concerts. Couldn’t they have at least had the concerts while the game was being played, like some kind of joint-venture? That would’ve been interesting watching an NFL game while Shakira was singing in the background. Regardless, this game has the highest over/under in NFL history and should feature plenty of points. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a disappointing performance where he “only” threw for two touchdowns last week against the Cardinals. Mahomes has thrown for three or more touchdowns in 70% of his games this season and is a lock-and-load play if you can afford him and are playing a Thursday – Monday slate. I also don’t see how you can avoid him on a Showdown slate.
Running Backs: I loved Kareem Hunt last week but he let me down, failing to find the end zone for the first time since Week 1 of the season. This is a smash spot for Hunt against a Rams defense that’s struggled all season against the run. The only downside to Hunt, just to play devil’s advocate, is that he plays on just 75%-80% of the snaps and isn’t an every-down back. He had a touchdown vultured by Spencer Ware last week, who continues to see around 20%-30% of the work. It was his first touchdown of the season but Ware’s usage on pass-catching downs makes him a viable punt option on a Showdown game where you’re going to need at least one or two low-priced players in order to fit in the studs.
Pass Catchers: It’s obvious – Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins (who is now trending towards the questionable/doubtful side) and Travis Kelce are all elite options this week in this likely high-scoring affair. How you fit and prioritize them is the problem. Much has been made about Hill’s home/road splits where he’s traditionally been better on the road, and this is a road game. Hill probably has the highest ceiling of this group, with Kelce having the highest floor. I honestly think you need exposure to all three if building multiple lineups. If Watkins made a surprise return, that would mean fewer snaps for Chris Conley and DeMarcus Robinson, who played on 92% and 73% of snaps, respectively, last week with Watkins out. Neither see big volume but again, if you’re playing the Showdown slate and need a punt to jam in the studs, they would qualify as touchdown-or-bust options to consider now that Watkins is looking more doubtful after missing practice this weekend.
The Takeaway: I honestly think you have to rotate exposure between Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce if building multiple teams because any could have big games in this offense. This sets up as a rebound spot for Kareem Hunt, but we’ve also seen him lose some work to Spencer Ware on passing downs so just keep that in mind. This offense is so explosive like my baby’s diapers that punting with someone like Ware, Conley or Robinson and hoping for a touchdown on limited snaps is the way to go in order to jam in the studs.
Los Angeles Rams
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kupp (Out For Season – ACL)
Quarterback: The Rams’ offense suffered a huge blow last week when slot receiver Cooper Kupp was lost for the season. That’s a blow for Jared Goff as well, but this concentrated offense now becomes even more concentrated. Goff has multiple touchdowns in four straight games and should come at lower ownership over Mahomes if you’re deciding between the two. I do prefer Mahomes over Goff as Gurley occupies so much of the Rams’ touchdown share and Goff sometimes loses touchdowns to his running back, but Goff has massive upside in this game, especially if you think the Rams play from behind.
Running Backs: The main reason I’m less likely to roster Goff is because I’d rather get my Rams exposure through Todd Gurley. This is an elite matchup for Gurley not just from a game environment perspective, but because the Chiefs rank dead last in run DVOA. Kupp’s absence should also funnel even more passes to Gurley, further elevating his ceiling. Gurley actually has almost as many targets (53) this season as Kupp (55) and nearly as many receiving touchdowns (Gurley with 4, Kupp with 6), just to give you an idea of how involved Gurley is on this offense. If you’re playing the Thursday – Monday slate, you almost have to start your lineup with Gurley and build around him.
Pass Catchers: The loss of Kupp means more targets for Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, both of whom are elite options here. It’s worth noting that Cooks’ last game of 12 targets was the first time all season he saw double-digit targets, while Woods has two games this season with double-digit targets. It’s possible we see both start to approach double-digit targets now that Kupps is out, or we could see a situation like last week where secondary players like Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett see increased workloads (both caught touchdowns last week and are viable punts in a Showdown format). Josh Reynolds likely moves into Kupp’s slot receiver role and will be a popular Showdown option given his price tag. He did have a two-touchdown game a few weeks ago on just five targets. I don’t expect him to see the same volume Kupp did, but his touchdown-upside is solid just playing in this offense.
The Takeaway: Todd Gurley is my priority on the Rams, followed by the pass catchers of Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Jared Goff also has massive upside here, but I’m prioritizing Gurley given the matchup. If you want to pay down, Josh Reynolds is a solid option, while tight ends Higbee and Everett may see some increased looks with Kupp out.