NFL Grind Down - Week 14: Thursday Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals
| Minnesota Vikings | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | Univ. of Phoenix Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 46 | 19 | -8 | 46 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.8 | 28 | 31 | 5 | Offense | 31.8 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.8 | 10 | 10 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 17.6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 8 | 8 | 11 | Minnesota Vikings | 12 | 7 | 14 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wallace | 55 | 30 | 1 | 367 | Fitzgerald | 123 | 91 | 7 | 1,047 | |
| Diggs | 66 | 42 | 2 | 639 | Floyd | 60 | 35 | 5 | 550 | |
| Wright | 35 | 21 | 0 | 310 | Brown | 72 | 51 | 4 | 839 | |
| Rudolph | 61 | 39 | 4 | 354 | Fells | 19 | 14 | 3 | 207 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Andre Ellington (ARI, Doubtful), Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, John Brown (ARI, Probable)
MIN Matchup Rating: 3.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 7.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) has only four total touchdowns in his last six starts, and has failed to reach 200 passing yards in five of those six outings. In daily fantasy football, we look for a floor and a ceiling when selecting a player, and Bridgewater has a low floor and a low ceiling based on his results this year. He’s possibly the easiest quarterback to pass on this week in a poor matchup with the Cardinals.
Running Game: Adrian Peterson (FD $8,200, DK $6,900) is the best running back in the NFL, and just as it has been for his previous few years in Minnesota, he’s all the Vikings have going on offense. With that in mind, the floor is very low, but unlike Bridgewater, his ceiling is still reasonably high thanks to his talent and breakaway speed. He put up a big fantasy point total against a strong Rams rushing defense, and had 81 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos, so we can’t rule him out entirely. But as we saw last week, he can be bottled up, and is a risky tournament play at best.
Pass Catchers: If Teddy Bridgewater is going to throw for 150 yards and a touchdown, there’s not a lot of hope for his pass catchers to pick up big point totals along the way, especially since Peterson is good for a couple of catches. The Cardinals are a very tough pass defense with talented defensive backs, and I am not interested in any Minnesota passing game options in this one. Patrick Peterson will spend most of his time tracking Stefon Diggs (FD $5,700, DK $4,400), and since Diggs is the only thing even close to a “reliable wideout” for the Vikings, there’s nothing appealing about this situation.
The Takeaway: The Vegas total for this game implies there will be a couple of touchdowns scored by this Minnesota offense, but it’s hard to figure out where they’ll come from in a formidable matchup with such limited talent on offense. Peterson is your best bet at a touchdown or two, but otherwise, steer clear of the Vikings this week.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: The Vikings have allowed nine total touchdowns to quarterbacks over the past four games, and have allowed two 300+ yard performances over that span, as well. This is a defense that always seemed to be over-performing just a bit, and while the Seahawks’ dominant performance can’t be seen as the new norm for the Vikings, it can be seen as a sign that there are ways to move the ball and score points against a previously strong unit from a fantasy points allowed standpoint. Carson Palmer (FD $8,300, DK $6,500) has been fantasy gold for a majority of the season, with six games of 3+ touchdowns, and only one game in which he failed to either pass for 300 yards or score a touchdown. He will never, ever “kill” your lineup, although one touchdown and 275 yards would be a letdown at his price. He does offer huge upside as the leader of the league’s most productive offense, and is in play against a Minnesota defense that appears to be average at best, and is trending in the wrong direction. If you’re playing in Thursday contests, consider Palmer as a cash game viable QB with strong tournament potential as well.
Running Game: The biggest concern for those rostering David Johnson (FD $6,500, DK $4,300) last week was his ball security. And when he put the ball on the ground late in the third quarter, those who rolled with DJ must have been sick to their stomachs. Just two plays later, however, Johnson hauled in a pass for a touchdown to go up by two scores, and then handled the ball for only three touches over the final 20 minutes. However, his head coach doesn’t seem to be ready to hold back the successful rookie against a banged-up Minnesota defense, and with Andre Ellington seemingly out and Stepfan Taylor banged up, it will be just Johnson and Kerwynn Williams (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) out of the backfield against a Minnesota run defense that ranks 25th in Football Outsiders DVOA. The Vikings have allowed 100-yard rushers in three straight games (Lacy, Coleman, Rawls), and Johnson should make it four in a row on Thursday night. He’s a core play in all formats. Williams is an interesting GPP play if Taylor is ruled out, as he’ll be used as a change of pace, and is a dynamic player who should see touches even if Johnson is running well and holding onto the ball. Don’t bank on him seeing the ball all that often, however.
Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett were targeted 14 times last week, and caught 12 of those passes for 184 yards against this Minnesota defense. Prior to that, just a couple of weeks ago, James Jones hauled in 109 yards worth of passes against this team. This isn’t a great pass defense, and if star safety Harrison Smith is out, the entire unit takes a step back in quality. Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,200, DK $7,400), John Brown (FD $6,300, DK $4,500), and Michael Floyd (FD $6,100, DK $3,800) are the trio of receivers we look at when considering the Arizona passing game, and while J.J. Nelson (FD $5,400, DK $3,000) has a touchdown in two of his last three, he’s really only going to see volume when one of the “big three” sits out. Fitzgerald has the biggest price, but also the biggest volume, with double-digit looks in his last five games. Floyd’s game log looks an awful lot like a Michael Floyd game log (in other words, inconsistent), but with big outings in three of his last four, and touchdowns in four of his last six, the trends are heading in the right direction. Fitzgerald is the “spend-up” option at WR here, while Floyd will be the more popular cheap play, and Brown remains a GPP option thanks to his game-breaking speed.
The Takeaway: David Johnson is a top play in all formats, while Fitzgerald and Palmer are solid in any sort of contest, as well. Floyd is the best of the “other” receivers, while John Brown gets an honorable mention. The Arizona defense is a strong option most weeks, and is a safe play against Minnesota. The Vikings don’t turn it over often, but they do allow a healthy amount of sacks.