NFL Grind Down: Week 6 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| San Francisco 49ers | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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San Francisco 49ers
Update 10/15/18 – Matt Breida is pushing to play tonight and had a limited practice on Saturday. If he’s out, Alfred Morris would start. You could also give Kyle Juszczyk a look as he went for 6-75-0 last week on seven targets, so there could be some upside with a negative game flow script. George Kittle is officially questionable but expected to play, and so is Pierre Garcon. Trent Taylor is now doubtful. There’s an article here that talks about Richie James likely starting in the slot for Taylor. He should see an expanded role today but is really just a YOLO play.
Notable injuries and suspensions: Breida (Questionable – Ankle), Garcon (Questionable – Shoulder), Taylor (Doubtful – Back)
Quarterback: The 49ers enter Monday Night Football banged up. Several players missed Thursday’s practice but most likely to manage their workload and get a little more rest. With three straight losses and an implied team total of just 18.5, the 49ers find themselves in a tough spot. C.J. Beathard did have a nice stat line of 34/54 with 349 yards, two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown against the Cardinals in Week 5. The downside was he threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles. Green Bay ranks 11th in pass DVOA so this doesn’t feel like a great matchup on paper.
Running Backs: All eyes are going to be on Matt Breida, who is questionable with an ankle injury. He’s likely to be a game-time decision. If Breida is out, Alfred Morris would assume lead back duties. Morris did a decent job last week going for 61 yards on 18 rushes. He also made a season-high three receptions off five targets, which is noteworthy considering he’s not typically used in the passing game. Green Bay ranks 27th in run DVOA so if Breida can suit up for this game, he has some sneaky upside assuming he can stay healthy enough to finish the game.
Pass Catchers: The 49ers look like they will get some good news finally as Marquise Goodwin looks likely to make his return. Goodwin has just five receptions all season as injuries have derailed his playing time. Goodwin’s ability to stretch the field is good news for George Kittle, who went for a 5-83-0 line off seven targets last week. Amazingly, it was Pierre Garcon who led all 49ers with a massive 12 targets in Week 5, but he only caught five of them for 47 yards. Garcon is not someone on my radar and the return of Goodwin squashes his value. Trent Taylor did have a 7-61-1 line but I don’t think we should chase it with Goodwin returning.
The Takeaway: This sets up as a good spot for Matt Breida if he can return. Marquise Goodwin is nothing more than a GPP option while George Kittle has the safer floor.
Green Bay Packers
Update 10/15/18 – Both Allison and Cobb remain game-time decisions but Adam Schefter is mentioning on twitter that both are expected out. If Cobb is out, Marquez Valdes-Scantling would see a boost. If Allison is out, Equanimeous St. Brown would see a boost. Valdes-Scantling is my preferred option between the two.
Notable injuries and suspensions: Allison (Questionable – Hamstring), Cobb (Questionable – Hamstring)
Quarterback: Down 24-0 at the half, Aaron Rodgers nearly willed the Packers to a come-from-behind victory but just fell short. In Week 5, Rodgers went 32/52 for 442 yards and three touchdowns. The amazing thing is that he did this without two of his starting starting receivers in Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. The Packers have a healthy implied team total and with the 49ers having one of the better run defenses but struggling more against the pass, this sets up as a Aaron Rodgers game.
Running Backs: Aaron Jones was a popular play last week given his low price and the expected increase in his role, but the Packers being down 24-0 early killed those plans. Jamaal Williams ended up leading the backfield in snaps with 33, while Ty Montgomery was in on 29 snaps and Jones on just 22. I still think Jones finishes the season as the lead back, but it’s clear that all three have roles on this team and will receive playing time based on the game flow. On a full slate I’m avoiding this situation. On a Showdown slate, you can certainly take a shot on one of these guys and hope for a red zone touchdown. If I had to choose someone from the trio I’d lean Jones, but this is a spot probably worth avoiding.
Pass Catchers: We’re going to have to wait and see what happens to Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison. Their absence allowed for Marquez Valdes-Scantlingto play on 95% of the snaps and finish with a 7-68-1 line off 10 targets, while Davante Adams saw a massive 12 targets for a 9-140-1 line. Jimmy Graham saw 11 targets and even Equanimeous St. Brownhad 89 yards. The large number of snaps and targets likely won’t be this massive against the 49ers in what should be more of a positive game script and the possibility of one (or both) of Cobb and Allison returning.
The Takeaway: What we do with the Packers depends on the statuses of Cobb and Allison. Their absence would open up time against for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and funnel more passes to Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham. If they’re back, both are in play. This should be a spot where Aaron Rodgers has success as the 49ers have struggled more against the pass than the run this season.