NFL Pick'em Pool Picks Week 4: Straight Up & Against the Spread
After going 10-6 in both Week 1 and Week 2, we delivered a 15-1 Week 3 performance to move to 35-13 (72.9%) on the season. We look to stay hot as we reveal our Week 4 NFL Pick’em selections!
There are multiple formats for pick’em tournaments, including the picking against the spread and ranking selections in confidence intervals. In this column, we will touch on both the classic style and picking against the spread each week.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks, then Matt Schmitto will break down his top five picks against the spread. Also, don’t miss my Week 4 Survivor Guide if you’re still alive in your eliminator pools!
NFL Week 4 Pick’em Pool Picks: Tips, Strategy
Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
Week 4 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Cleveland Browns
6. Tennessee Titans
7. Los Angeles Rams
8. Kansas City Chiefs
9. San Francisco 49ers
10. Denver Broncos
11. Los Angeles Chargers
12. Cincinnati Bengals
13. Washington Football Team
14. Detroit Lions
15. Indianapolis Colts
16. Carolina Panthers
Bills (vs. Texans)
Since 2003, NFL teams favored by 15 points or more on the spread are 63-3 straight up, which translates to a .955 winning percentage. If there is any concern in this matchup, it is the fact that the Texans had extra time to prepare for the Bills after playing last Thursday against the Panthers. Still, with Davis Mills under center and little talent in the secondary, Buffalo should win this contest with ease.
Saints (vs. Giants)
The Saints are undefeated this season when they are not missing eight assistant coaches on game day due to a COVID-19 outbreak. In Week 1, New Orleans embarrassed the Packers 38-3. Last week, the Saints defense was dominant in a 28-13 victory against the New England Patriots. Quarterback Jameis Winston is unlikely to make a run at Most Valuable Player this fall, but he is a capable signal caller, who should be able to win more often than not with one of the league’s best defenses on the other side of the ball. The New York Giants have looked terrible in each of their first three contests in 2021. They were blown out at home in their season opener before losing to an unimpressive Washington Football Team in Week 2. At home again in Week 3, they lost to a previously winless Atlanta Falcons team that lost by 26 points at home to the hapless Philadelphia Eagles. It seems illogical to expect the Giants to put up much of a fight on the road against a far superior New Orleans team in Week 4.
Packers (vs. Steelers)
Aaron Rodgers is still elite. After arguably his worst performance as a professional in Week 1 against the Saints, he responded with a surgical performance against the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football, completing 22-of-27 passes for 255 yards and four touchdowns. Against the San Francisco 49ers, he would have had his second consecutive game with better than a 70 percent completion rate if not for a necessary spike to stop the clock for the game-winning field goal on the final drive. In Week 4, Green Bay has a near-automatic win on their schedule against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that looks like one of the worst teams in football through three weeks. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been atrocious. Ben Roethlisberger is in danger of being benched after yet another poor performance. The Packers should roll in this one.
Buccaneers (vs. Patriots)
In the most highly anticipated game of the week, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will travel to New England for Sunday Night Football. Both teams are coming off of losses in Week 3, but Tampa Bay is in a much better position to rebound in Week 4. As we mentioned in our preview of the Buccaneers and the Rams last week, Los Angeles was simply a bad matchup for Tampa Bay. Mac Jones and the Patriots run far more slow-developing plays, which is not a winning recipe against a ferocious Buccaneers defensive front. Brady still has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowksi, and likely Antonio Brown as his top weapons. Entering play this weekend, Tampa Bay has scored the most points in the NFL (103), which is nearly double the amount of points that New England has scored (54). Bettors should expect the Buccaneers to get back in the win column on Sunday.
Browns (vs. Vikings)
Last week against the Chicago Bears, the Browns held Justin Fields and the Chicago offense to an incomprehensible 47 yards of total offense on 42 plays. Cleveland’s defense recorded nine sacks and dominated the time of possession, holding the ball for 39 minutes and 34 seconds of the 60 minute affair. If not for some overzealous play-calling on fourth down in the first half, the Browns likely would have won by much more than 20 points. Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham exhibited strong chemistry, connecting for 77 yards with Beckham on a limited snap count. The market is overweighting Minnesota’s win against the Seattle Seahawks team that consistently struggles on the road year in and year out. The Vikings lost to the Bengals in their season opener and struggled to stop anyone in the desert in Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals. Expect Cleveland to have their way with Minnesota on Sunday in a game that might not be all that close.
Titans (vs. Jets)
The Titans have not impressed anyone during the early portion of this season, but it is hard not to trust them to get a win this weekend against the New York Jets. Ryan Tannehill has been inconsistent in the young season, throwing for more than 212 yards only once in three games, and totaling three interceptions already. The Titans defense is still unreliable, but they get to face one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in Week 4. In his first three career starts, Zach Wilson has thrown for only 628 yards, completing 55.2 percent of his passes, with two touchdowns and seven interceptions. Wilson has also been sacked 15 times. Despite their flaws, Tennessee should be a winner this Sunday.
Schmitto’s NFL Week 4 Picks Against The Spread
*Week 4 Lines are from DraftKings Pick’em Pool
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles +6.5
Current Consensus Line: Chiefs -7
The Kansas City Chiefs have been abysmal against the spread dating back to 2022, but KC bettors can expect the Chiefs to finally cover the number in Week 4 as they head to Philadelphia. The defense in Kansas City is porous, that much is evident. The Eagles, however, had no luck moving the ball against a susceptible Cowboys defense. If the truth be told, the Eagles just aren’t very good, which is why I suggested bettors grab Chiefs -5.5 before the Monday Night Football game. If you missed the opportunity, you can still take advantage of a stale line in most pick’em pools. My suggestion is to do just that. This isn’t a question of how many points the Chiefs will win by, it’s a question of how many touchdowns.
PICK: Chiefs -6.5
Panthers at Cowboys -4.5
Current Consensus Line: Cowboys -4.5
I don’t doubt the Cowboys. They were my biggest bet in Week 3, and now they have the luxury of staying in Arlington for their Week 4 matchup and also avoid Christian McCaffrey. Despite so many things playing to their advantage, I believe more so in the Panthers. To many bettors’ surprise, Carolina is 3-0 with both their offense and defense exceeding expectations. Two of those wins were against the Texans and Jets, sure, but their most impressive victory was a 26-7 win against the Saints. The McCaffrey loss isn’t as big of a deal as the media would have you believe. On defense, the Panthers front seven is more than capable of taking advantage of a banged up Cowboys offensive line. I still think Dak Prescott, a notable MVP candidate (especially at 18-1 odds on DraftKings), will lead the Cowboys to a win but I don’t think it’ll be by more than four points.
PICK: Panthers +4.5
Ravens vs. Broncos -0.5
Current Consensus Line: Broncos -0.5
The Broncos don’t have an impressive win on their resume but there’s no reason to think they can’t get it on Sunday. One week after beating the Super Bowl favorites, the Ravens needed a 66-yard field goal from Justin Tucker to deter a monumental upset against one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Broncos on the other hand have had no hiccups. Their defense is ranked no. 5 in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and Teddy Bridgewater has been a breath of fresh air for a franchise that has had their fair share of quarterback issues following Peyton Manning’s retirement. Bridgewater trails only Prescott in completion percentage and is fifth in passer rating, all while throwing some of the deepest passes in the league (9.48 aDOT, 5th among NFL starters). Did I mention he has yet to throw an interception?
PICK: Broncos -0.5
Browns at Vikings +2.5
Current Consensus Line: Browns -2.5
I’m generally bullish on the Browns and loved how good “(player-popup #odell-beckham)Odell Beckham Jr looked last week, but I’m backing the home dog in this matchup. U.S. Bank Stadium is one of the toughest, loudest places to play in all of football — as it showed last week hosting the Seahawks — and the Vikings need a win to get back to .500 if they want to keep up with the Packers. This is a tough spot for the Browns who are still missing Jarvis Landry. If the Vikings can get an early lead, the Browns may have trouble catching up.
PICK: Vikings +2.5
Buccaneers at Patriots +6.5
Current Consensus Line: Buccaneers -7
The biggest storyline of the week, maybe of the year, comes Sunday night. Tom Brady makes his return to Foxborough, while Bill Belichick does everything in his power to spoil the party. Unfortunately for Bill, the Patriots don’t have many offensive weapons to help him out. The Patriots have yet to prove they can push the ball downfield via the passing game and we know how difficult it is to run on the Buccaneers. Everything about this matchup, other than Belichick, says Buccaneers by 10.
PICK: Bucs -6.5
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