Best NFL Week 5 Player Props at U.S. Sportsbooks
Another disappointing running back performance prevented a props sweep in Week 4. Darrell Henderson let us down against the Giants while Joe Burrow and DeVante Parker did not even require a sweat. After back-to-back weeks with two winners, Week 5 feels like sweeps week. Up 5.45 units on the season, I am hoping to get to double digits within the next few weeks. Here are my favorite player prop picks for Week 5 in the NFL.
Make sure to check out our Week 5 Betting Lines and Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into the action at online sportsbooks. Let’s get started.
NFL Week 5 Player Props — QB Pick for Panthers at Falcons
Teddy Bridgewater Over/Under 291.5 Passing Yards (use our FanDuel promo code to get these odds)
Oh, Atlanta. Oh, Atlanta… the perfect team for daily fantasy enthusiasts each and every week. The Falcons’ defense finds new ways for opposing quarterbacks to get there every week. Over the first four weeks — with a few collapses mixed — the Atlanta defense has served up north of this passing prop each week. Allowing a 72.02 completion percentage this season, passing offenses are having field days each week. Teddy Bridgewater should be a popular fantasy option as the Falcons allow the most fantasy points per game to the QB position, per RotoGrinders GridironIQ.
Why do quarterbacks always put up robust numbers? Aside from defensive flaws and a very youthful secondary, the Falcons are no stranger to shootouts. Matt Ryan logs 42 pass attempts per game, good for third in the NFL, so far. While Atlanta cannot seem to win a game, Ryan and the offense churn out yards until the bitter end through the air. Carolina is just behind Atlanta in opposing completion percentage (71.72%). With a 53.5 implied game total, this one might get out of hand.
Give me Teddy Bridgewater to clear this passing prop and likely throw for over 300 yards.
My Pick: Over 291.5 Passing Yards -113
NFL Week 5 Player Props — RB Pick for Jaguars at Texans
James Robinson Over/Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
James Robinson continues to break out as an undrafted free agent for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Illinois State product ranks fifth in all-purpose yards (446) and draws a very favorable matchup against the Houston Texans. Ranked third-worst in fantasy points for opposing running backs, the Texans allow 4.9 yards per rush attempt to backs.
While the matchup for Robinson is great overall, his receiving yards prop is a bit of a head-scratcher. The rookie only failed to clear this receiving prop once this season but averaged north of 4 targets over the last three weeks. The Texans have not allowed a ton through the air against opposing backfields, but have not really played from ahead throughout the season. Despite a coaching change, the Texans are 5.5-point home favorites. Online sportsbooks seem to think the Jaguars will play from behind. Robinson should receive his normal workload through the air.
Robinson’s flashes of big-play ability lead me to believe that this prop could be broken with one screen. Either way, with a few catches, Robinson should clear this yardage total. Give me the over.
My Pick: Over 21.5 Receiving Yards -113
NFL Week 5 Player Props — WR Pick for Dolphins at 49ers
DeVante Parker Over/Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
Last weekend, DeVante Parker did his part in our quest for a clean sweep — easily smashing his yardage prop with 12 catches for 110 yards. That was last week — against the Seahawks. While Seattle hemorrhages yardage through the air to opposing offenses, the San Francisco defense is a different animal.
Despite a rash of injuries, the 49ers defense allows a measly 9.0 yards per completion in 2020. With only a 62.12% opposing completion rate, yards are still difficult to come by against the San Francisco reserves. While Parker and teammate, Mike Gesicki, continue to stand out as top targets for Ryan Fitzpatrick, the run of explosive play must come to an end at some point.
On the road, in San Francisco, this yardage prop seems to be a bit much. Not only are the 49ers extremely stingy, but the offensive gameplan will continue to be centered on running the air out of the football. The Dolphins’ possessions will be limited and very inefficient. While we are pretty happy with DeVante for his efforts last week, this is a business. Business will not be open (pun intended) on Sunday. I will take the under on DraftKings.
If you do fancy the over, FanDuel offers a 62.5 yardage prop. Take that number, even if I will not be joining you in your efforts.
My Pick: Under 65.5 Receiving Yards -112
2020 NFL Props Record: 9-3
Net Units on One-Unit Bets: 5.45
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images