NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks: Four Favorite Thursday Night Plays

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On Wednesday we brought you NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks: Giants vs. Jets and Colts vs. Bills.

With nine more games on the schedule, we’re here to break down our favorite NFL preseason Week 1 betting picks for the remainder of Thursday Night Football.

Be sure to read our NFL preseason betting strategy guide to find out why betting during the preseason differs from traditional NFL betting and how to take advantage of the house.

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NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks — Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Redskins PK, O/U 35.5

For preseason purposes, the Washington Redskins have the most well-rounded quarterback rotation. The Redskins drafted Dwayne Haskins with their first-round pick in the 2019 NFL draft, and he’ll battle with Case Keenum for the starting job. Colt McCoy, who is a decent quarterback at least by preseason standards, is likely fighting for the backup job with whoever is leftover from the main card; though, there are reports that McCoy is the clear leader of the three. McCoy is also far more familiarized with Gruden’s offense, being the two both arrived to the nation’s capital in 2014. That’s neither here nor there; the point is, Washington’s quarterback play will look better late in games than most teams.

(Update: McCoy is sitting out Thursday night, so we’ll see a lot of Haskins and Keenum.)

Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens hasn’t indicated much, but expect Garrett Gilbert and rookie David Blough to take most of the snaps for the Cleveland Browns as they compete for a roster spot behind Baker Mayfield and backup Drew Stanton.

The Redskins also have plenty of depth at running back. Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson are unlikely to be on the field, and it’s unclear whether Derrius Guice will play in the same game that ended his rookie season this time last year. Regardless, Sam Perine has plenty of talent to help the Redskins move the ball against Cleveland reserves.

The main edge I like here is the quarterbacks. The Redskins should find some continuity in both halves if they go with just two quarterbacks. There’s also a lot more for Gruden to find out about his team than for Kitchens, whose starters are set in most key positions.

The Pick: Washington Redskins -1 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)

NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks — Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals -2.5, O/U 37

With one of the bigger storylines during the offseason surrounding Arizona Cardinals new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray, it looks like a lot of bettors have hopped on the Over in this one. The total opened at 35 and has already moved to 37.

Kingsbury, known for his offensive genius in college football circles (also a product of the Mike Leach coaching tree), makes his NFL debut after making the jump from college football. Surprisingly, Kingsbury earned the promotion after being fired from Texas Tech where his fast-paced, pass-heavy offense didn’t score enough to prevent three consecutive losing seasons.

Keep in mind, the three worst Texas Tech offenses over the last 12 years were during Kingsbury’s tenure. Are the Cardinals really getting an offensive genius, or is Kingsbury just a luckbox reaping rewards from coaching Johnny Manziel and Patrick Mahomes?

After hiring Kingsbury, Arizona’s first move was to trade Josh Rosen and give their new head coach the quarterback he wanted: Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray.

Bettors who are expecting a fast-paced Cardinals offense in NFL preseason Week 1 might be early to the party. Not only have Kingsbury and Murray both said the offense will be “vanilla” Thursday night, but the Cardinals have also had kicking problems throughout training camp.

According to The Athletic’s Scott Bordow, Arizona kicker Zane Gonzales missed three straight field-goal attempts during a two-minute drill last weekend.

Both of those nuggets are enough for me to be contrarian now that the total has moved a couple of points. I’m also skeptical as to how prepared Kingsbury will have his team. While a lot of new head coaches like to set the tone with preseason wins, Kingsbury doesn’t appear to be too concerned about this NFL preseason Week 1 matchup.

The Picks: Under 33; Chargers +2.5 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)

NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Picks — Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens -4.5, O/U 31.5

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“Why is this spread so big?” was the first thing that came to mind when I looked at the NFL preseason Week 1 betting board. If this is your first time betting NFL preseason, you might wonder why I think 4.5 points is so big.

Last season, 54 of the 65 NFL preseason betting spreads 3.5 points or less.

One of the reasons for the high spread is John Harbaugh’s preseason record. Harbaugh is 30-15 ATS overall and has won 13 consecutive preseason games straight up. Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone is 8-8-1

Not only is it one of the largest point spreads on the NFL preseason Week 1 betting slate, but it’s also one of the lowest point totals.

Last week it was former Ravens safety Ed Reed who received all the spotlight as he was inducted, first ballot, to the NFL Hall of Fame. This week it’s a bunch of Ravens players you’ve never heard of.

There’s still no word yet on Lamar Jackson’s status. Last year, the Ravens weren’t shy giving Jackson reps, but a lot has changed over a year. If Jackson does suit up, don’t expect him to be out there for long.

Instead, it will be Trace McSorley and Joe Callahan leading the Baltimore offense since Robert Griffin is inactive with an injured thumb. McSorely was Baltimore’s sixth-round pick out of Penn State and Callahan completed 60% of his passes for 262 yards one touchdown and one interception for the Jets last preseason.

Jacksonville looks to emphasize the pass this season, but Marrone was coy regarding his starters’ playing time and new starting quarterback Nick Foles isn’t expected to play. The Jaguars will rely on a trio of young quarterbacks — Gardner Minshew, Alex McGough and Tanner Lee — Thursday night.

The total is low and for good reason. I expect a sloppy game from the quarterbacks from both offenses. If I were taking a side here, I’d lean towards taking the points, but I’ll stick with the totals for this one.

The Pick: Under 31.5 (use our BetStars promo code to get these odds)

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Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

schmitto
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

Matt Schmitto is an Organic Strategy Lead for Better Collective. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports in 2012 and soon became a member at RotoGrinders. Seven years later, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders Network full time as a staff writer shortly after the Supreme Court overturned PASPA. He has since covered important stories in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for sites like SportsHandle and USBets and has had roles as a sports betting editor and commercial content manager. He continues to play DFS and loves placing Futures bets at sportsbooks. His favorite DFS sites are DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, and PrizePicks. Follow Schmitto on Twitter – @Matt_Schmitto