NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 6: Strategy, Safest Bets, and Upsets
The 2021 NFL season is in full-swing once again, which means that eliminator, survivor, and pick’em pools are on many people’s minds. This fall, we will be offering some advice and best practices for how to approach each of these formats.
There are quite a few heavy favorites on the board for Week 6. We’ve already looked at Week 6 lines, now let’s break down our best NFL survivor picks.
NFL Week 6 Survivor Pool Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we took our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys against their division rival. In Week 6, we are going to bet on some positive regression from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Week 6 Survivor Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid five contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
In Week 6, each of the biggest favorites that we have remaining to use — the Indianapolis Colts (-10), Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5), and the Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) —have at least one red flag. Let’s take a closer look at each contest.
Colts (vs. Texans)
This matchup for the Colts is an intra-division game against the Houston Texans, which nearly always breeds closer-than-expected competition. Indianapolis is also playing with a rest disadvantage after facing the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 5. Carson Wentz continues to be one of the lowest graded quarterbacks in the NFL. He is only further hindered by ongoing injuries and a porous offensive line that has him under frequent duress. The Colts have one of the worst secondary units in football, and have been consistently torched by opposing signal callers in 2021. Houston is still seeking their first win of the campaign, but Davis Mills looks closer each week to delivering that result for Texans fans. The Colts are a 10-point favorite for a reason, but they are not a lock on Sunday.
Chiefs (vs. Washington)
The Chiefs are a mess defensively, having allowed 29 or more points in each of their first five contests this fall. We typically try to avoid away teams with bad defenses in survivor pools. However, few bad defenses have the benefit of still being a juggernaut on the offensive side of the ball—totaling 33 or more points in three of their five games, and only once scoring less than 24 points. Mahomes has been uncharacteristically careless with the football, already throwing six interceptions. However, he gets an extremely favorable matchup against a Washington Football Team in Week 6 that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw 14 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Washington’s ferocious pass rush has the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL, due to a secondary that has not been able to stop anyone. Expect Kansas City to do enough to win this game, even if their defense makes survivor pool participants sweat. Other than a Week 8 date with the New York Giants, this is unquestionably the Chiefs’ most favorable matchup Kansas City has remaining on their schedule.
Steelers (vs. Seahawks)
Pittsburgh gets flagged twice this week—once because this is a prime time matchup, and additionally because they have a significant rest disadvantage after the Seattle Seahawks played on Thursday Night Football in Week 5. Geno Smith is poised to start in Week 6, due to Russell Wilson’s injury. However, bettors should not rush to hammer the Steelers in this contest. Ben Roethlisberger is arguably worse than Smith as a signal caller. Pittsburgh also has an atrocious offensive line, and a defense that has underperformed expectations in 2021. Through five weeks, Seattle has surrendered the second-most rushing yards of any team in the NFL, meaning that Pittsburgh does not necessarily have to sling the ball around the field to win this game. Yet, the Chiefs are still likely a better option in Week 6 for those who are still alive in their tournament.
Safest Pick: Rams to Beat Giants
If playing in a survivor pool with no constraints on picking the same team multiple times throughout the course of the season, participants have far more options to consider on a weekly basis. In Week 6, the safest option by far, for those who are still able to use them, is the Los Angeles Rams (-10).
Not only do the Rams have a significant rest advantage after playing last Thursday, they are also the superior team in all facets of the game. On offense, they are led by emerging MVP-candidate, Matthew Stafford, who ranks third in the NFL in passing yards and fifth in touchdown passes. On defense, they are unlikely to be overwhelmed by either Daniel Jones, who has not practiced all week, or Mike Glennon, a career back-up, who showed few signs of life last week against the Dallas Cowboys.
If the Rams are still in your arsenal, do not hesitate to pull the trigger on them this week in a contest that could be the biggest blowout of Week 6.
Upset Watch: Beware of Bills at Titans
Each week, we will examine one team that is a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. In Week 5, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. Last week, we once again said to prepare for a stressful day if selecting the Ravens, who trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it.
Bills (vs. Titans)
Josh Allen and company delivered a dominant victory on Sunday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs. However, the market should not overreact to this performance by Buffalo, considering how terrible the Chiefs have looked on the defensive side of the ball in 2021. While we are bullish on Buffalo’s chances of making a deep playoff-run, we continue to argue that it is unwise to pick intra-division games in survivor tournaments, especially when they are prime time matchups between two capable teams. After dealing with a plethora of injuries early in the fall, the Tennessee Titans are finally starting to get healthy. Tennessee is always a threat to pull an upset with a dynamic offense featuring Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, and two elite wide receivers, if both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are healthy for Week 6. There are better options to consider in survivor pools this week.
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