NFL Week 6 Lines and Betting Picks for Every Game — 2021
The NFL has been friggin’ nuts through five weeks, with incredible comebacks left and right and a slew of new squads atop the power rankings. We just saw a record number of PATs missed, and Lamar Jackson led the Ravens on a 28-3 scoring run for the comeback victory on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady is still the GOAT, and Patrick Mahomes lost his mini-goat horns to Bills NFL MVP candidate Josh Allen. And let’s not forget about Justin Herbert, who seems hell-bent on adding to his Rookie of the Year trophy. Team… break!
Let’s get right into these opening NFL Week 6 lines and betting picks. On Tuesday of each week, we give you a glimpse into which way we are leaning, with football betting tips in every single doggone game. We rank the 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. games in order of confidence level, and of course provide our top bets for each of the three primetime games. It’s all about the money—let’s go get it.
NFL Week 6 Lines and Betting Picks
- Buccaneers at Eagles +7, O/U 51.5
- Dolphins at Jaguars +3.5, O/U 45.5
- Texans at Colts -9.5, O/U 43.5
- Packers at Bears +4.5, O/U 45
- Chiefs at Washington +6.5, O/U 55.5
- Vikings at Panthers -1.5, O/U 46
- Chargers at Ravens -3.5, O/U 50.5
- Bengals at Lions +2.5, O/U 47.5
- Rams at Giants +10.5, O/U 47.5
- Cardinals at Browns -2.5, O/U 50.5
- Raiders at Broncos -3.5, O/U 44
- Cowboys at Patriots +4, O/U 49.5
- Seahawks at Steelers -4.5, O/U 42.5
- Bills at Titans +5.5, O/U 54.5
TNF: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles +7, O/U 51.5
The Eagles have been on a topsy-turvy ride this season. They smashed the Falcons in the ATL back in Week 1, then lost to the Niners at home and got crushed in Dallas. Then Kansas City put up a 40-burger on them back in Philly, but the Eagles got back on track with a 21-18 win in Carolina Sunday. Here’s my thought on Philadelphia: second-year QB Jalen Hurts is raw but super talented, and he needs more help. If it’s going to be Jalen and rookie receiver DeVonta Smith against the world, the world will win more often than not. And in this case, Tampa Bay is most definitely winning. The defending-champion Bucs may have a couple ugly wins in their 4-1 record, but they’re still 4-1. I just don’t mess with seven-point spreads in primetime games. There’s way more value in the OVER in a Tom Brady night game. Throughout his illustrious career, the GOAT has averaged over two passing TDs and 280-plus air yards in both Thursday night games and night games in general.
PICK: OVER 51.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team +6.5, O/U 55.5
Hey look, the Chiefs lost to Josh Allen and the Bills on Sunday Night Football and fell to 2-3, and now everyone thinks they’re broken. Sounds like a perfect time to capitalize on Kansas City’s market shifts on BetMGM. WFT just lost to New Orleans 33-22, and now we think they can finish within seven points of the back-to-back AFC champs? Nah, I’ll take Patrick Mahomes and a supremely-motivated Chiefs squad against the second-most generous scoring defense in the NFL (WFT allows 31.0 points per game). Spoiler alert: Kansas City is the most generous—surrendering 32.8 per game—so I wouldn’t blame you one bit if you also bet the massive OVER of 55.5. If the Chiefs are going to enjoy a ‘get-right’ game, this could be the day it happens.
PICK: Chiefs -6.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens -3, O/U 50.5
A gross Indy offense is currently smacking around the Ravens on Monday Night Football as I write this, so I expect a market correction on this game by Tuesday morning. But if you can get LA +3, I sincerely hope you pounce as aggressively as the court of public opinion pounced on Jon Gruden for saying dumb, insensitive things in emails 11 years ago (RIP Chucky). Sorry, I got off-topic a bit there—where are we? Oh yeah, the Bolts look awesome, with 2020 Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert and breakout receiver Mike Williams destroying the downfield game. I get that Baltimore’s supposed to be a good defense, and 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson is as athletically dominating as a QB can be, but the Chargers are just flat-out a better overall team. Give me a poised QB with a strong, accurate arm and better weapons around him over the best running QB in the league seven days a week. Let’s not forget Austin Ekeler has been about as strong as any running back in the NFL through five weeks, with seven total touchdowns and 543 yards from scrimmage. He’s the big little engine that could run over just about any defense that stands in his way.
PICK: Chargers +3
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers -1, O/U 45.5
After a torrid 3-0 start to the season, Carolina has cooled off in a major way, dropping its last two games to Dallas and Philly. It might drop a third straight game this week at the hands of the Vikings, a team much more talented than its 2-3 record suggests. Minnesota has been in every single game this season, and its losses have been by an average margin of 3.6 points. If the Vikes outlast Cincy in overtime back in Week 1, or kicker Greg Joseph doesn’t miss a kick and an extra point in their 34-33 loss to Arizona in Week 2, we are probably talking Kirk Cousins up as an early MVP candidate. I think the Purple reign supreme in North Cackalacky this weekend.
PICK: Vikings +1
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts -10, O/U 42.5
Carson Wentz and this Indy offense hit puberty Monday night against Baltimore—and led 22-3 late in the third quarter—but the Colts somehow got outscored 28-3 the rest of the way (a familiar set of numbers to Patriots fans). Well, Houston has scored 52 points in the four weeks since its strong 37-21 opening-week victory over Jacksonville. That averages out to 13 points per game, and Deshaun Watson ain’t walkin’ through that door anytime soon. I’ll take Carson Wentz and his improving core at home over Davis Mills, Brandin Cooks, and the island of washed-up running backs. You can actually grab Colts -7.5 at Caesars as of Tuesday morning.
PICK: Colts -7.5
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears +4.5, O/U 44.5
Justin Fields seems to be getting there, but I’m surprised oddsmakers are impressed enough with him to give Chicago just four and a half points against Green Bay. Since the Pack’s Week 1 mulligan against the Saints in neutral-site Jacksonville (Aaron Rodgers’ kryptonite?), they have won out. It got a little dicey last week in Cincy—when neither kicker appeared very interested in winning—but I’ll take Rodgers with one eye over a sloppy rookie. How did Chicago even beat the Raiders last week? Fields went 12-of-20 for 111 yards and one touchdown. Without David Montgomery, easily its best offensive player, Chi-town’s going down to the rival Cheeseheads.
PICK: Packers -4.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions +3, O/U 48.5
I’m done picking these Lions—they keep finding ways to lose, and haven’t topped 17 points since Week 1. Meanwhile, the Bengals nearly bounced the Packers out of town in OT last Sunday (these bloody kickers are as effective as the Johnson & Johnson vaccine!). Top 2020 pick Joe Burrow, possibly still not 100 percent after his ACL tear this time last year, has thrown six interceptions and almost suffered a throat contusion last week. But he’s apparently OK, and he gets a sight for sore eyes in Motown this weekend. Detroit’s defense has just three picks all season, which ranks near the bottom-third in the NFL. With Cincy rookie Ja’Marr Chase looking like a Rookie of the Year candidate, Tee Higgins back in action, and Tyler Boyd as reliable as ever—plus a solid one-two running punch of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine —you gotta go with Joe.
PICK: Bengals -3
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars +3, O/U 44.5
Even though the Dolphins just got stomped out by Tom Brady and the Bucs, I’m not picking the Jaguars until they give me a reason to pick them. Disgraced Jacksonville coach Urban Meyer seems more likely to give his notice to team owner Shad Khan than he is to lead his team to a win over Miami. Jags lose and Meyer loses his job.
PICK: Dolphins -3
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants +10.5, O/U 47.5
Running back Saquon Barkley rolled his ankle into a softball, QB Daniel Jones suffered an awful concussion, wideout Kenny Golladay hyperextended his knee, and breakout wide receiver Kadarius Toney punched a Cowboy in the helmet and got ejected. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play at Ford’s Theatre? It must suck to be a Giants fan. I’m on the Rams, but I’d probably be more interested if the spread was -9.5. Spreads of 10-plus points always feel like inevitable garbage-time crapstorms, so I’ll stay away, but if you insist on taking a side I suggest buying a point.
PICK: Rams -9.5
NFL Week 6 Afternoon Picks
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots +4, O/U 49
You could give the Patriots nine points at home and I’d probably still roll with the Cowboys. In Week 5, Mac Jones and New England barely got past the lowly Texans with Davis Mills under center. Now, we’re expecting the Pats to lose by just four to an all-around quality Cowboys squad? Dak Prescott has been accurate (and downright explosive) in his return from multiple surgeries, and his elite core of skill-position players are reaping the benefits (RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, WRs CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, and TE Dallas Schultz make for quite the nucleus). Add to that a stud rookie linebacker in Micah Parsons and a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Trevon Diggs, and things are good for them ‘boys. Dallas has knocked the socks off the Giants, Panthers, and Eagles over the course of the past three weeks. They’ll destroy the young, up-start, and mistake-prone Patriots.
PICK: Cowboys -4
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns -2.5, O/U 50.5
Another reactionary line. One week ago, we were calling the undefeated Cardinals the best offense in football. One defeat in San Francisco later, and we’re suddenly making them underdogs in the Dawg Pound. Let’s be real, here. Cleveland just allowed the Chargers to score 47 points—how is Arizona not favored in this game? The Cards have a better defense and a vastly-better passing game, and early MVP candidate Kyler Murray will be hungry after his first L of the season. I’m very interested in Arizona +2.5 and the OVER of 50.5.
PICK: Cardinals +2.5, OVER 50.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos -3.5, O/U 44.5
You gotta feel for Raiders Nation this week, after head coach Jon Gruden was forced into his resignation due to a slew of insensitive emails from over the years coming to light. A couple weeks ago, this Vegas squad was one of a handful of undefeated teams. Now, it’s 3-2, and traveling to Mile High without its head coach. That’s a lot of adversity for a relatively-young team. I’m going with Denver as long as QB Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) and top receiver Courtland Sutton (ankle) get the nod.
PICK: Broncos -3.5
Monday & Sunday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5, O/U 41.5
In a battle of squads that have disappointed out of the gate, it doesn’t get any easier for the Seahawks who have lost Russell Wilson. The Seahawks have endured a brutal early-season schedule, and now they’re without one of the best passers in the league. Lucky for them the Steelers are a downright bad team, which could be just what the doctor ordered for Seattle and backup QB Geno Smith, who looked serviceable in a quarter of play as he relieved Wilson last Thursday.
PICK: Seahawks +4.5, OVER 41.5
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans +5, O/U 54
The weirdest stuff seems to happen on Monday Night Football, so as a general rule I tend to stay away from MNF spreads. But if I had a proverbial gun to my head, I’d be going with the hottest team in football, the Buffalo Bills. I’ve been all over this team for three or four years—to the point my friends make fun of me for being in the Bills Mafia—but hey, they’re friggin’ good. Josh Allen is an MVP-caliber QB, he has an elite receiving corps including All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs and emerging tight end Dawson Knox, and Buffalo’s defense looks incredible. These guys wiped the floor with the defending AFC-champion Chiefs last week, so I think they can handle the injury-ravaged Titans. But what do I know? Betting Monday Night Football games is like entering the Upside Down in Stranger Things.
PICK: Bills -5, OVER 54
Image Credit: Imagn