NFL Week 1 DFS Primer: Ownership Projections, Lineup Optimizer Picks, and Sleepers
Week 1 has finally arrived. We saw the Lions go into Kansas City and dethrone the reigning champs in an upset on Thursday night, and we’ve got a full slate of NFL action on tap for Sunday. This is the best time of the year because it means we’ll have football on TV every single Sunday between now and February.
Here at RotoGrinders, you’ll find no shortage of NFL DFS content at your disposal to help you with your weekly research. Every single week over the course of football season, we’ll give you a deep dive into how to approach the upcoming slate. Specific game breakdowns, positional rankings. optimizer picks, and ownership projections can all help you get a leg up on the rest of the field heading into the weekend.
With such comprehensive coverage, knowing where to find everything can be a challenge. In this weekly primer, I’ll be highlighting some of our best NFL DFS content and giving you a bird’s-eye view of Sunday’s main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Optimizer Picks
If you’re reading this, then there’s a very good chance you’ll be building your Week 1 NFL DFS lineups using LineupHQ. In addition to player and ownership projections for each site, you’ll also see some of the week’s top plays tagged by a slew of our experts. These are some of the best DFS players in the world, so following their advice is generally a good rule of thumb.
Naap’s Optimizer Picks piece touches on some of the best value plays of the week. These are players that typically project well for the dollar, so you’ll likely see them popping up quite often in your builds.
Sam Howell ($4,900) and Deebo Samuel ($5,500) are a couple of obviously mispriced players on DraftKings. We rarely get playable QBs at under $5,000, while Samuel is just too cheap for what should be a sizable role in the 49ers’ loaded offense. Over on FanDuel, Luke Musgrave ($4,500) stands out as a useful value at an always-thin tight end position.
DK and FD Ownership Projections
Accounting for expected ownership is a huge part of being a profitable NFL DFS player. We’ve got the best NFL ownership projections in the industry, and having an idea of how your opponents will attack the slate is a great way for you to know where to find your own leverage in GPPs.
Ownership projections tend to fluctuate over the course of the week, especially depending on late-breaking injury news. That’s why you’re better off building your lineups on Sunday morning just before lock. Still, taking a gander at ownership projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel will help you identify the players that are shaping up to be popular.
Some of the most popular DK plays heading into Week 1 are:
- Jamaal Williams ($5,100, 21.4% pOWN)
- Tyreek Hill ($8,200, 19.73% pOWN)
- Christian McCaffrey ($8,700, 17.26% pOWN)
One player emerging as a trendy value target is Elijah Moore, who checks in at just $3,800. Moore never found his footing in New York, but he should play a significant role as the No. 2 target of Deshaun Watson behind Amari Cooper in this offense. Cheap WRs are particularly useful on DK in the PPR format. As of this writing, Moore is projecting for about 19% ownership.
Some of the chalkiest players on FanDuel this week are:
- Kenneth Walker ($7,100, 19.98% pOWN)
- Chris Olave ($7,300, 19.58% pOWN)
- Christian McCaffrey ($9,200, 19.29% pOWN)
Much has been made about the Seahawks’ decision to draft Zach Charbonnet immediately after the breakout season of Kenneth Walker. Charbonnet figures to get some work in passing downs, but it’s fair to assume Walker will again get the bulk of the work on the ground. We can still expect a heavy dosage of Walker in this offense, and the matchup at home against the Rams this week is favorable enough.
PrizePicks Pick’em Plays
DFS is still going strong, but pick’em sites have exploded in popularity over the past few years. PrizePicks has you covered when it comes to Week 1 of the NFL season. New users can claim a match bonus of up to $100 using our special PrizePicks promo code.
What better way to ring in the new season than with some free PrizePicks pick’em picks?
Jamaal Williams More Than 50.5 Rushing Yards
With Alvin Kamara suspended and Kendre Miller banged up, Jamaal Williams stands to handle a significant workload in his first game as a Saint. Last season’s rushing TDs leader could easily rack up 20+ touches on Sunday when the Saints open their season at home against the Titans.
Tennessee is a stout run defense – as evidenced by their No. 1 ranking in DVOA against the run last season – but volume trumps everything else. There’s always uncertainty entering the first week of the season, especially with players debuting for new teams, but Williams would have to be incredibly inefficient to not gain at least 51 yards on the ground if he gets 15-20 carries.
According to our PrizePicks Pick’em Tool, Williams has a better than 73% chance of topping 50.5 rushing yards on Sunday.
Jaylen Waddle More Than 4.5 Receptions
Pregame over/unders aren’t gospel, of course. Just look at Thursday’s Lions-Chiefs clash as an example. This game had a week-best 54.5 over/under, yet the two teams wound up combining for just 41 points. The game with the next-highest total? That would be the Dolphins’ clash with the Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
This game should have some fireworks. Miami is a 3-point underdog here despite a solid enough 23.75 implied team total. Tua Tagovailoa is back, which means the Dolphins’ offense should be firing on all cylinders. Between Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, there’s enough wealth to go around.
Waddle reeled in 104 passes as a rookie, but that number fell to just 75 a season ago with Hill in the mix. That still comes out to about 4.4 receptions per game across his 17 appearances, including 7 games with at least 5 catches. Given the expected pace of what should be a high-scoring affair, I like Waddle’s chances of topping his 4.5-catch PrizePicks number.