NFL Week 13 Daily Fantasy Recap

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2013-12-07 00:10:44

Note: Stats below do not include the Monday Night Football game.

What Worked

• Peyton Manning to Eric Decker – Once Peyton Manning started attacking Chiefs CB Marcus Cooper, it didn’t stop. Eric Decker was consistently able to beat Cooper one-on-one and Manning really began to take advantage of it in the second half. Decker caught three of his four TD’s after halftime, which actually started with the Broncos trailing by a touchdown. Manning had said this week that he wanted to get Decker more involved, and he stuck to that by targeting him more than twice as many times as any other receiver. This is clearly not something to count on going forward as Peyton has been great at spreading the ball around this year, and next week might be the time to take advantage of a few down games from Wes Welker. But in Week 13, it was all Decker, which had to be frustrating for a lot of people on Fanduel (like myself) that had been rolling him out every week at a solid price but finally got fed up and went another direction. In total, Decker finished with 8 for 174 and 4 TD’s, and if you missed out on him or either of the other two big Week 13 wideouts, you had no shot in a GPP. Pairing him up with Peyton Manning obviously paid huge dividends, as Peyton threw for over 400 yards and 5 TD’s. When you’re attempting to decide between Denver receivers for the rest of the season, try to find the best match-up in the secondary each week.

• Josh Gordon – I’m sure any of the teams who talked with Cleveland about a trade for Gordon earlier in the year are really wishing they’d have pushed harder. The former supplemental draft pick has been on a level right now that Calvin Johnson would have trouble matching, and it’s pretty clear that we are watching one of the games best receivers develop before our eyes. Here’s an interesting stat: In the last two games, Gordon has 498 yards receiving, while the Jets leading receiver ON THE SEASON has 347 yards (Jeremy Kerley).

• Gordon became the first player in NFL history to go over 200 yards (make that 237 yards) receiving in consecutive games. It’s clear that the Browns game plan is focused around getting the ball into his hands, and rightfully so. Jordan Cameron has disappeared lately and he’s even harder to trust after another sub-par game against Jacksonville, who has struggled with tight ends this year. In the middle of the fourth quarter, Gordon was looking at a 9-catch, 166 yard day, but with the Browns backed up at their own five with just four minutes left, Gordon caught a pass at the 15-yard line, broke a tackle and sprinted the rest of the way for a 95-yard touchdown. He finished with 10 catches for 261 yards and two scores, and if you missed on Decker you pretty much needed to roster Gordon (with Alshon Jeffrey) to have a shot in big tournaments. If you managed to pair Brandon Weeden up with Gordon, you made out pretty well dollar for dollar.

• Alshon Jeffrey – He was only the third highest scoring receiver of Week 13, but would have led the way most weeks. Up against the league’s 30th ranked pass defense, Josh McCown looked for Jeffrey all game long, targeting him a total of 15 times, twelve of which he caught for 249 yards and two TD’s. The second of his touchdown grabs was one of the best catches I’ve seen all year, where Jeffrey made a leaping catch over Chris Cook on the sideline and dragged both feet for the score. Jeffrey saw nine more targets than Brandon Marshall, which is definitely not something we’re accustomed to seeing. There will be weeks when one goes off while the other stays silent, but I wouldn’t expect too many more 200+ yard games in the future. Don’t get me wrong, Jeffrey is uber-talented and will be a force in the league for many years, but his price is sure to fly upwards which won’t make him as easy to play going forward as he was for just 6200 at Fanduel on Sunday. Brandon Marshall should get back to his normal production against Dallas, but watch out for Jeffrey again in two weeks when the Bears take on Cleveland (Marshall should get the Haden treatment).

• Value options at Quarterback. You can pick from quite a few players here… The guy who made Alshon Jeffrey’s day possible is a good start. Josh McCown threw for 355 yards and 2 TD’s without turning the ball over, and the 80-yard catch and run TD from Alshon right after halftime really made McCown’s day. Brandon Weeden also benefited quite a bit from yards after the catch, but nonetheless still managed 370 yards and 3 TD’s, which was better than anyone could hope for out of him. Weeden did turn the ball over three times, but it didn’t put too big of a dent in his totals. Alex Smith had a pretty reasonable price across the board and had the match-up against Denver which always keeps QB’s throwing. Smith threw for 293 yards with 2 TD’s and an interception, and also added 46 yards on the ground. Ryan Tannehill might have been the least-popular play of the bunch, but surprised us with 331 yards and two TD’s against a tough Jets defense.

• Running backs looking for redemption. Both C.J. Spiller and Ben Tate had been very frustrating to own the last few weeks. After Arian Foster went down for the season, it made sense to think that Ben Tate would step in and at least produce at a level close to Foster, but it hadn’t happened until Sunday. The Texans must have watched Knowshon Moreno run circles around this defense, because they made the run game a focal point of the offense and it worked out well. It was nearly a 50/50 split in terms of run/pass for the Texans, and Tate accounted for 22 of the 28 Houston rushing attempts, and turned them into 102 yards and 3 TD’s. In London, the Falcons and Bills gave the Canadian fans quite a show, and C.J. Spiller played a big part in it. He’s finally starting to look like the player he was last season, and he seems to have his wheels back after the bye week gave him a good chance to heal. Spiller looked great on a few long runs, one which went for 77 yards where he just kind of ran out of gas at the end, and the other was a 36-yard TD run which broke a tie early in the fourth quarter. I’m not convinced that Spiller is back for good, both because Fred Jackson is still very much a factor and the Bills still don’t seem to want him to see a full workload. The match-up with Atlanta obviously helped too, but Spiller worked out very well for anyone who took the chance on him.

• QB’s on winning streaks. I wanted to find a way to talk about both Cam Newton and Nick Foles, and they just so happen to be the two quarterbacks with the longest active winning streaks. Newton led the Panthers to their eighth straight win by throwing for 263 yards and 2 TD’s and added 68 yards and a TD on the ground. He’s the weeks 2nd highest scoring QB, which wouldn’t have been possible without the added rushing stats, but that’s what makes Cam so valuable. Nick Foles led his Eagles to a win over Arizona, which made it four straight victories for the Birds. Foles continued his mistake-free football (kind of), finishing with three TD’s and no turnovers and now sits at 19 touchdowns without an interception. Patrick Peterson picked him off in this one, but it didn’t count because of a defensive holding penalty. I’m still not completely sold on Foles’ long term success, but there is definitely something to be said for someone who can take care of the ball so well while still making things happen. Zach Ertz was the most productive receiver for Foles, as the Eagles attacked Arizona’s biggest weakness on defense, which is their ability to defend the tight end, especially athletic TE’s that can stretch the field.

• Picking on the Chicago run-defense. This is something that has worked every week, so why would it be any different with Adrian Peterson? It’s kind of frustrating that he never found his way into the endzone, but it’s also hard to complain about 211 rushing yards on 35 carries. He had a few chances to add a touchdown to his day late in the game, but it just didn’t happen. This run-defense has gotten gashed by every back they’ve faced, including Benny Cunningham just a week ago. They take on DeMarco Murray next week, and with Lance Dunbar now out for the season they could rely on Murray even more.

What Disappointed Us

• Last-minute replacements at RB. With DeAngelo Williams being ruled out due to injury and Stevan Ridley being benched because of fumbling issues, we saw some value emerge at the RB spot. While Shane Vereen worked out just fine if you played him, the starting “big back” for New England didn’t match his success. Since Brandon Bolden was so cheap on a few sites, he was a gamble worth taking, but it didn’t work out so well. Bolden saw just three carries for two yards, while LeGarrette Blount (who fumbled last week, always a no-no for Belichek) ran for 44 yards and a TD on 12 carries. Adding further insult, fullback James Develin vultured a possible touchdown from Bolden early in the game, and didn’t see any work after that. It might have been different if the Patriots built an early lead, but this game was neck and neck all day and Belichek stuck with Vereen and Blount. Meanwhile, Jonathan Stewart also couldn’t get much going as the starter for Carolina, but he at least had his chances with 16 touches, which he could only turn into 42 yards.

• The Cincinnati passing game. A match-up against the Chargers usually brings out the best in the opposing QB, and considering how good Dalton has been recently it was rational to think he could keep it going. San Diego has allowed the 4th most points to QB’s (coming into Week 13) and have been equally as bad against WR’s, so there were plenty of reasons to believe in this unit. The Bengals seemed content with running the ball and protecting their narrow lead, which worked out in the end but frustrated anyone who rolled out a Dalton/Green combination. While the two did hook up for a 21-yard TD strike in the third quarter, the final totals for both players weren’t exactly what owners were hoping for. Dalton finished with 190 yards and a TD, while Green had just five receptions for 78 yards and the aforementioned touchdown. Add Gio Bernard to the list, who had just 66 total yards on the day and was kept out of the endzone.

• The Colts. Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, Trent Richardson (if he even counts anymore).. the list just never ends. They did manage to win the game and move to 8-4, but what do we care? The fantasy goodness just wasn’t there in this game like it was when these teams met on Thursday night a few weeks ago. Luck has been struggling recently and didn’t break out of it on Sunday, completing just 17 of 32 passes for 200 yards and an interception, with no touchdowns. The 42 rushing yards he added were nice, but it wasn’t nearly enough to make up for his inept passing stats. T.Y. Hilton couldn’t break free for any big plays on Sunday and finished with just five catches for 46 yards, while Coby Fleener reeled in just three catches for 50 yards. The Colts haven’t been the fantasy goldmine some thought they’d be after they dealt for T-Rich, and that probably doesn’t change much next week against Cincinnati.

• Brandon Marshall. It had to be at least a little frustrating for Marshall to watch Alshon Jeffrey completely destroy the Vikings defense while he had trouble just turning his targets into catches. Marshall caught less than half of his 9 targets and totaled just four catches for 45 yards on the day. It wasn’t like McCown was picking on a particular defender by targeting Jeffrey, but he sure looked more comfortable throwing to the 2nd year wideout, which hadn’t been the case going into this week. Marshall had ten catches last week and had been McCown’s favorite target coming into Week 13, but that certainly changed on Sunday. Expect a bounce-back from #15 next week.

• Eli Manning and the Giants passing game. I list these guys every week, and I’m not sure if it’s because they’ve actually been that bad or if my hatred for the Giants is just pulling through. Regardless, I’m 100% fed up with people talking about Eli’s “good match-ups.” It really does feel like he’s had a plus match-up in almost every game this year, and it doesn’t get any worse next week when he takes on the Chargers in San Diego, who allow the 4th most FP’s to quarterbacks. I don’t care if Eli takes on a college defense at this point, I’m not going anywhere near this passing game. Victor Cruz has forgotten how to score touchdowns lately and Hakeem Nicks has basically been invisible, so I just don’t see many good reasons to target this group. The only real test they’ve had is a match-up with Kansas City, in which Eli managed about 7 fantasy points. The upside isn’t there with the other Manning anymore, even with a much lower price tag than we’ve grown accustomed to over the past few years.

What Surprised Us

• Three WR’s topping the 40-point mark. The three marquee wideouts of Week 13 put up stat lines that would even seem a little ridiculous in a video game. All three guys (Decker, Gordon and Jeffrey, in case you forgot) had at least 8 catches and two of the three were well over 200 yards receiving. Alshon Jeffrey actually managed to break the Bears single-game receiving record, which he himself had set earlier this year. Just a crazy week in the NFL with plenty of high scoring games and lots of fantasy points to be found.

• Ryan Tannehill and Brian Hartline breaking down the Jets defense. These two hooked up nine times for 127 yards and a TD, but it was overshadowed (as it should have been) by the more prolific WR performances of the day. The big play between these guys was a 31-yard catch and run where he beat Antonio Cromartie, then broke a few tackles and turned it into six. Hartline was the 4th highest scoring wideout of the day, which is surprising because he hadn’t registered a touchdown since Week 3 and hadn’t went over 100 yards since Week 1. Mike Wallace is still the top option in Miami but Tannehill seems to have a near equal amount of trust in both guys. At the end of the day though, this isn’t a passing game you want to target all that often.

• The Falcons (a few, at least) coming back to life. Steven Jackson finally put together the type of game that the ESPN heads were hoping for when the season started. He was supposed to be a low end RB1 or a high-end RB2, but he hasn’t even come close this season even when he’s been healthy, until Sunday. Jackson carried it 23 times for 84 yards and found the endzone twice, once from 27 yards out and the other a short one-yard plunge. The Bills run-defense has actually been pretty good on the season, but has looked vulnerable over the past couple of weeks and the Falcons kept that going on Sunday. Roddy White also returned from the dead, posting by far the best game of his season, which sadly did not include a touchdown. At this point, ten catches for 143 yards is as good of a day as you can hope for from Roddy, and hopefully the off-season gives him a chance to recover and come back stronger in 2014.

• Andre Brown and Alfred Morris combine for 61 rushing yards, yet manage 32 combined fantasy points. Short touchdowns are very good way for players to mask an otherwise poor fantasy performance. Both of these guys had one-yard TD runs, yet neither of the two could manage more than 35 yards receiving. Brown finished with 35 yards on 14 carries (2.5 YPC), and 23 of those yards happened to come on a touchdown run early in the second quarter. He added the one-yard TD later in the game, and compiled 19.2 fantasy points (half point PPR) while only having 57 total yards. Alfred Morris was also pretty inefficient in terms of yardage, gaining just 26 yards on 11 carries, but the short touchdown at least made his day bearable. When Morris has more receiving yards (27) than he does rushing yards, things didn’t go according to plan.

This Week’s Top Performers: Quarterbacks

This Week’s Top Performers: Running Backs – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Wide Receivers – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Tight Ends – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Running Backs – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Wide Receivers – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Tight Ends – Full Point PPR

Optimal Lineups

Because of Thanksgiving game sets this week, optimal lineups below reflect ONLY Sunday games stats

Optimal Lineup: FanDuel

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Peyton Manning	$11,000	33.82
RB	C.J. Spiller	$5,700	22.70
RB	Ben Tate	$6,200	28.20
WR	Eric Decker	$5,800	45.40
WR	Josh Gordon	$8,400	43.10
WR	Alshon Jeffery	$6,200	42.90
TE	Zach Ertz	$4,500	21.30
K	Adam Vinatieri	$5,000	16.00
DEF	Miami	$5,200	20.00
	TOTALS	$58,000	273.42

Optimal Lineup: DraftStreet

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Peyton Manning	$14,980	33.82
QB	Cam Newton	$15,161	29.32
RB	Ben Tate	$7,590	28.20
RB	C.J. Spiller	$8,249	22.70
WR	Eric Decker	$8,000	45.40
WR	Josh Gordon	$13,149	43.10
TE	Zach Ertz	$2,809	21.30
FLEX	Alshon Jeffery	$10,694	42.90
FLEX	Brian Hartline	$6,106	23.20
DEF	Miami	$6,658	17.00
	TOTALS	$93,396	306.94

Optimal Lineup: DraftKings

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Brandon Weeden	$5,100	24.30
RB	Ben Tate	$4,500	28.20
RB	Fred Jackson	$5,600	23.80
WR	Eric Decker	$5,800	49.40
WR	Josh Gordon	$8,000	48.10
TE	Zach Ertz	$4,100	23.80
FLEX	Alshon Jeffery	$6,400	48.90
K	Adam Vinatieri	$3,900	16.00
DEF	Miami	$4,500	20.00
	TOTALS	$47,900	282.50

Note: DraftKings Optimals does not include bonuses awarded in DK’s scoring system