NFL Week 12 Lines: Betting Picks for Every Game on Sunday
NFL Week 12 is off to a great start after going 2-0 on Thanksgiving. Since then there’s been a handful of breaking news, all that impacts our DFS and betting plans come Sunday. We’ll look at some of the biggest injury news and its impact on games as we lock in more NFL Week 12 betting picks.
Also Read: Best NFL Week 12 Player Props at Online Sportsbooks
NFL Week 12 Lines and Betting Picks
Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons
Opening the door for Brian Hill at running back across DFS contests, the Falcons ruled Todd Gurley out for their inter-conference game against the Raiders. Additionally, the Falcons are also in jeopardy of losing Julio Jones and tight end Hayden Hurst.
This line was already Raiders -3 earlier in the week, so we haven’t really seen oddsmakers make adjustments in light of the news, at least when it comes to the spread. What we have seen at online sportsbooks is the total drop from Over/Under 56 to 53.5.
As of Saturday evening, 69% of betting money is on the Raiders and 90% on the Over, per Scores and Odds.
I don’t have a strong take here other than the fact that I will be playing Brian Hill at 4K on DraftKings in this spot. Twist my arm hard enough, I suppose I’d take the Under.
However, this is a high projected total and one of the ways Hill will get there in DFS is by catching passes. He has seven games of at least two receptions this season. Expect him to get three or more as the Falcons play as home underdogs.
NFL Pick: Brian Hill OVER 2.5 Receptions
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
As we saw in their loss against the Seattle Seahawks, Kyler Murray does have an injury to his throwing shoulder. Meanwhile, the Patriots return Stephon Gilmore to their secondary, which should help keep DeAndre Hopkins in check.
Unsurprisingly, public money is all over the Cardinals, who have somewhat become betting darlings over the last month. It’s worth remembering, though, that the Cardinals are a miracle hail mary (Week 10 vs. Bills) and a questionable penalty away (Week 7 vs. Seahawks) from having their record flipped to 4-6 rather than 6-4.
Setting records in only his second year in the NFL, Murray has been spectacular to say the least. However, I think the Cardinals and head coach Kliff Kingsbury are a bit overrated. Give me Cam Newton, Bill Belichick and the points at home.
NFL Pick: New England Patriots +2
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals
Brandon Allen rather than Ryan Finley will fill in at quarterback one week after Joe Burrow’s rookie season came to a premature and painful end. When Finley stepped in at the start of the third quarter against Washington, he only completed 3-of-10 passes. The atrocious quarterback performance wasn’t unfamiliar to Bengals fans. In 2019, Finley had games where he went 12-of-26 and 13-of-31. The best performance of his NFL career is a 16-for-30, 167-yard showing against the Raiders last November. I guess that explains why the Bengals are going with Allen.
Allen was on the team’s practice squad until earlier this week, but he does have some real NFL-game experience. Last year, he completed 39-of-84 attempts for the Denver Broncos.
I don’t see the Bengals putting a lot of offense together against a decent Giants defense. This should set up well for running back Wayne Gallman in terms of NFL DFS and prop betting, as well as the Under (44)
NFL Pick: Under 44
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Starting Mike Glennon at quarterback, the Jacksonville Jaguars do indeed seem to be in tank mode. Lucky for Glennon, he won’t have to face cornerback Denzel Ward or defensive end Myles Garrett, the latter of whom is out due to being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Unfortunately for Glennon, he will not have receivers Chark Jr and Chris Conley to throw to. This is of course good for Laviska Shenault owners, but I think it’s going to be tough for Jacksonville to find the end zone. Head to BetMGM where you can bet on Under 49.5; the total is 48.5 at most other shops.
NFL Pick: Under 49.5 at BetMGM
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are without Adam Thielen and Irv Smith Sunday, which means the offense will run through Dalvin Cook more than it already does, while including additional usage for rookie sensation Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson has been one of the most impressive players from the 2020 draft class. He put his big-play capability on display in Week 3, when Jefferson burst into the spotlight with a 7-reception, 175-yard performance. The LSU product hasn’t looked back since. Jefferson has had four games 100-yard games total, and he most recently posted 86 receiving yards on merely three receptions against the Cowboys. Now Kirk Cousin’s favorite target and starting tight end are missing against a pass defense that ranks 21st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
The Vikings are sure to go heavy run with Cook as their workhorse. That should be no problem as the running back has averaged 30 touches per game over the last four weeks. To be clear, both Cook and Jefferson are potential slate breaks in daily fantasy.
Even if Cousins has a minimal amount of dropbacks, I expect him to go to Jefferson enough to exceed his receiving props. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers pack the box and dare Cousins and Jefferson to beat them.
NFL Pick: Justin Jefferson OVER 75.5 Yards; OVER 5.5 Receptions; Longest Reception OVER 26.5 Yards
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Running back Jonathan Taylor is OUT which boosts the tempo in this Titans-Colts matchup that was already primed to feature a good amount of scoring.
Gridiron IQ projects running back Nyheim Hines to receive 15% of Phillip Rivers targets and 35% of the carries. It was only two weeks ago that Hines rushed for 70 yards on 12 carries while adding 45 yards on 6 receptions during a 34-17 win in Tennessee, and that was with Taylor present. Now Hines will be splitting the backfield with Wilkins as they try to replicate their previous success against a defense that is 18th in DVOA against the run and has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this year.
We all know Rivers loves checking down to his running backs, and Hines has consistently been a recipient despite the crowded backfield. He should be in for even more receiving work on Sunday in a great matchup.
NFL Pick: OVER 51.5 Points; Hines OVER 4.5 Receptions (-120 at William Hill)
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
The Miami Dolphins will start Ryan Fitzpatrick against the win-less New York Jets. You could expect a lot of running against the Jets’ porous run defense but the Dolphins are without Salvon Ahmen and Myles Gaskin. They’re also short at receiver with Preston Williams on IR and Jakeem Grant given a ‘Q’ tag. Everything in this game sets up perfectly for Devante Parker to have a huge game. The 7-point spread suggests this game will remain close enough to incentivize the Dolphins to pass the ball. Bet on Parker to have OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards and OVER 4.5 Receptions; GridironIQ projects Parker to haul 70 yards on 9 targets.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Ok, I outsourced this pick to one of the best sports betting podcasts out there, Bet The Process. Professional sports bettor Rufus Peabody, someone much sharper than I am, likes the Buffalo Bills up to -5.5. That’s good enough for me.
NFL Pick: Bills -4.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have a stout defense, but Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams might have given the rest of the NFL a blueprint on how to beat it. Last week, the Rams virtually abandoned the run and diced the Buccaneers’ secondary to shreds. Jared Goff threw the ball 51 times, completing 39 passes for 376 yards and three touchdowns, while 16 rushes were divvied up among the Rams backfield. The Bucs did manage to pick off Goff twice, but this week they have to face the best quarterback in the NFL — dare I say the best quarterback (not the same as the greatest) in NFL history?
Yeah, I’ll say it.
Passing 65.24% of the time despite leading most of their games, the Chiefs are clearly not afraid to abandon the run; there’s no better time to do it than this week in Tampa.
Mahomes and his receivers will have a huge day, though the return of Sammy Watkins makes it difficult to pick out which receivers will be racking up the yards and receptions. I would lean towards betting Under 42.5 yards for Watkins but the only prop I really like is Antonio Brown OVER 5.5 Receptions.
I’m picking the Chiefs to cover what is now a 3.5-point spread, which means I expect them to force the Bucs to ditch the run as they play from behind. The Bucs do have offensive line concerns, which is bad news for Brady who has struggled when pressured this season. He has been targeting Brown increasingly more since Brown was activated a few weeks ago, giving the receiver a game-high 13 targets in Week 11. Before that, Brady targeted Brown eight times against Carolina.
NFL Picks: Chiefs -3.5; Brown OVER 5.5 Receptions
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are proving that they are once again contenders in the NFC after back-to-back wins against the Seahawks and Bucs. Meanwhile, the 49ers just try to salvage a season that has been riddled with injuries from the start. I’m still not sold on the Rams and I think this is let-down spot. The return of Richard Sherman will spark this defense and head coach Kyle Shanahan will figure out a way to keep this one within six points.
NFL Pick: 49ers +6.5
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos
In light of news that the Broncos will not have a quarterback active, oddsmakers have made the New Orleans Saints 14.5-point favorites (up from -6) and dropped the total to 36.5 points (down from 45.5). Wide receiver Kendall Hinton, who played quarterback at Wake Forest, will be behind center since all other Denver quarterbacks have been placed on the reserved/COVID-19 list. I’d largely stay away from this game at sportsbooks if William Hill wasn’t letting us bet Kendall Hinton UNDER 136.5 Passing yards.
NFL Pick: Hinton UNDER 136.5 Passing Yards at William Hill
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