NFL Week 2 Betting Picks: New England at Miami
The New England Patriots opened as 16-point road favorites and the line has moved all the way to New England -19 at online sports betting sites. The total opened at 48 and has only moved a half-point to 48.5 at William Hill sportsbook.
NFL Betting Tip: Remember to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 2 lines across the online sports betting industry and find out what sportsbook has the best price for your favorite NFL games.
Also check out more NFL Week 2 lines and betting picks.
Now, let’s break down the odds and look at NFL Week 2 betting picks for the New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins.
NFL Betting Picks Week 2 – New England Patriots -19 at Miami Dolphins, O/U 48.5
Week 1 was a tale of two very different teams. The Dolphins started out the season against the Ravens, immediately confirming what most of us knew already: Miami is the worst team in the NFL. The Dolphins defense gave up 59 points in a game which saw Lamar Jackson, a QB who struggled to throw the ball in his first season, look like one of the best passing QBs in the league. The Ravens piled up stats throughout this game with Lamar Jackson seeing a stat line of 324 passing yards and 5 touchdowns on just 20 attempts. While on the ground, Mark Ingram put up a 100-yard game with 2 touchdowns on 17 attempts. The offense didn’t fair much better than the defense. Fitzpatrick completed less than half his passes on his way to a 185-yard, 1 touchdown, 1 interception performance to go along with their 12 rushing attempts for 21 rushing yards. Overall, the Dolphins looked like a team primed to tank for the first overall pick.
The Patriots couldn’t have been more opposite of the Dolphins in Week 1. Brady & Co. put possibly the best showing of any team. The Pats came into the game against the Steelers as just a 5.5-point favorite and never once looked like there was a chance they couldn’t cover. New England’s offense put up 33 points against a solid Steelers defense with Brady posting a 24/36, 341 Passing Yards, 3 TD stat line. The Patriots now have Antonio Brown in the offense to bolster an already potent passing attack. Overall, the Patriots look like the Superbowl favorite that we see every year.
While the eye test clearly points to the Patriots seeming like better bet, all the underlying and historical data says otherwise. Since 2015, New England is the best home team ATS with a record of 33-14-2 ATS; on the road they just a bit above average going 23-18 ATS. Additionally, the Patriots have struggled greatly against the Dolphins on the road. They’re 1-4 straight up over their last 5 games in South Beach. Moreover, road teams have gone 4-7 ATS in the last 11 games when favored by 14+ points.
My NFL Week 2 Betting Pick: Sure, the overwhelming majority of people are picking the Patriots. Are you surprised? I’m sticking with the numbers, numbers that point toward the Dolphins being one of the beter bets on the board this week. While we rarely ever see a line this high, its not impossible for the underdog to win this game straight up; we saw it last year when Buffalo beat Minnesota decisively as a 17-point dog. I love the Dolphins to cover in this spot. Dolphins +19. (use our William Hill promo code to get these odds)
NFL Week 2 Betting Picks — Player Prop
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Over 215.5 Passing yards +117: As I’ve already made clear, this game is much more likely to be “close” in terms of the point spread than people realize. Though we have Josh Rosen waiting in the background, I don’t think the Dolphins want to force him into this mess this early. Fitzpatrick is a guy that at any given time can go off for a massive game, piling up yards like a madman. He only managed around 180 yards last week, but that was up against a far superior Ravens defense. The Patriots will run a much more “bend but don’t break” defense that will allow yards between the 20s but not touchdowns. With positive juice on the over for this prop, it offers great value on such a low line.
NFL Week 2 Betting Picks — Monkey Knife Fight Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight props for the San Diego Chargers vs. Detroit Lions: