Sign In $

Turning the NFL Week 3 Injury Report Into A Longshot Parlay

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2024-09-22 16:13:43

jahmyr-gibbs-800x480

Sunday’s Week 3 NFL slate features 13 games, beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET with 7 games on the East Coast. The West Coast window has 5 games on tap in the middle of the afternoon before we get to the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football.

New at RotoGrinders this year, we will be doing a complete Sunday slate injury breakdown, including news, analysis, and potential betting angles for each game. Some of the largest edges in NFL betting are a result of key players being sidelined due to injury – and a lot of those key injuries are on the defensive side of the ball or the offensive line, which are two overlooked areas of research for most NFL fans and bettors.

At the bottom of this article, we will have a weekly longshot parlay to see if we can take this injury information and turn it into a nice payday. Our Week 2 parlay went 12-for-14, with Zach Charbonnet coming up 2 yards short for us, and Bryce Young having the worst weekend of any quarterback in the NFL. This week’s 13-leg parlay comes to +2615.

Below, we have relevant injury news and analysis for each Week 3 Sunday NFL game!

NFL Week 3 Injury Report

As a disclaimer, inactive reports come out 90 minutes prior to kickoff for each NFL game, so we often don’t know a player’s final status until shortly before the game begins. This article is accurate as of Saturday afternoon. If looking for any last-minute injury updates or analysis, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.

New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns

EDGE Brian Burns is officially listed as questionable for Sunday, but it seems as though there is a real chance he’s inactive. Burns was a late addition to the team’s injury report this week due to a groin injury. Burns has averaged 9.5 sacks across the last four seasons and was a big free agent splash for the Giants this past offseason. He’s been excellent against the run to begin 2024 and has played at least 48 snaps in each of the team’s first two games. He would be a significant loss for this defense. LB Darius Muasau is also questionable for this weekend. He played 45 snaps in Week 1 and led the team with 6 tackles, including a tackle-for-loss. Micah McFadden, who had a team-leading 13 tackles in Week 2, will likely see an expanded workload if Muasau can’t suit up, so this isn’t a significant loss either way if Muasau is unable to go.

The Browns could be getting a pair of key pieces back in Week 3, with LT Jedrick Wills and RT Jack Conklin both trending towards playing. According to the Akron Beacon Journal, “If the Browns are able to go with Wills and Conklin at left and right tackle, it would be the first time since the 12:13 mark of the second quarter of last season’s opener against the Cincinnati Bengals they have had their presumed full starting five offensive line together.” It couldn’t come at a better time, facing a strong New York pass rush.

Giants

Browns

LEAN: UNDER 38.5 (-110)

Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans

After initially fearing that they lost their starting quarterback for the season, Jordan Love is reportedly very close to returning to the field for Green Bay. He was limited at practice all week and appears likely to either suit up in Week 3 or Week 4 at the latest. It’s possible that the Packers would prefer to hold him out this weekend, as they are playing on the road without their starting RG Jordan Morgan. If that is the case, Love is likely to return for the team’s Week 4 contest at home against the Vikings. Morgan has allowed a 4.3% pressure rate through two games this fall. His likely backup, Sean Rhyan is a notable downgrade and has allowed a 7.1% pressure rate on 42 pass blocking snaps this year. If Malik Willis ends up starting again, expect to see a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs for the second week in a row. CB Carrington Valentine played 32 snaps last weekend and is worth noting here as well.

Tennessee is relatively healthy heading into Week 3, with no new notable injuries to report.

Packers

Titans

LEAN: Titans Moneyline (-142)

Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts

RG Ryan Bates was placed on injured reserve earlier this week for the Bears. He played 38 snaps in Week 1, allowing 0 pressures on 22 pass blocking snaps. He missed the team’s game against the Texans in Week 2. Backup RG Nate Davis allowed a 7.8% pressure rate on 64 pass blocking snaps. Davis was limited at practice this week but is likely good to go for this weekend. WR Keenan Allen will miss his second consecutive game after not practicing on Friday.

WR Michael Pittman didn’t practice on Friday and seems unlikely to play on Sunday despite his questionable game designation. If Pittman doesn’t play, expect WR Alec Pierce and WR Josh Downs to see more looks in the passing game, though both players have tough matchups against a strong Chicago secondary unit in Week 3. The other big injury news for the Colts this week is DT DeForest Buckner being placed on injured reserve. Buckner is one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL and played 54 snaps in the team’s season opener. Indianapolis’ run defense is likely to take a big hit with him not on the field.

Bears

Colts

LEAN: Khalil Herbert Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+400)

Texans vs. Vikings

Houston may have a problem on Sunday if neither C Juice Scruggs nor C Jarrett Patterson are able to play. Scruggs is the team’s starting C, but he didn’t play in Week 2 due to a groin injury. Patterson filled in against Chicago, playing 62 snaps and was good in pass protection, but he struggled as a run blocker. RB Joe Mixon is the team’s top running back, but he appears unlikely to play this weekend after suffering a bad ankle injury this past weekend. RB Cam Akers, who led the Texans with 32 rushing yards against the Bears, could see the bulk of the workload out of the backfield in this matchup.

WR Jordan Addison will miss his second consecutive game for the Vikings, opening up more opportunities for WR Jalen Nailor, who had 3 receptions, 54 receiving yards, and a touchdown in Week 2 against the 49ers. The bigger question marks for Minnesota this weekend will be on the defensive side of the ball, with EDGE Dallas Turner and LB Ivan Pace Jr. both ruled out. Pace was second on the team with 9 tackles against San Francisco and has played 38+ snaps in back-to-back weeks. Houston’s ground game could find some success if Scruggs suits up.

Texans

Vikings

LEAN: Cam Akers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints

WR AJ Brown will miss his second consecutive contest with a hamstring injury. In his absence, DeVonta Smith saw a team-high 10 targets, which he turned into 7 receptions for 76 receiving yards. Expect him to be active once again, with WR Britain Covey also seeing an expanded role in the slot. S CJ Gardner-Johnson didn’t practice Thursday or Friday due to a foot injury this week and appears genuinely at risk of missing this weekend’s contest. Gardner-Johnson played 66 snaps in Week 1 and 61 snaps in Week 2, making him an integral part of this Philadelphia secondary unit.

The most notable name to watch on the New Orleans injury report ahead of kickoff this weekend is Will Harris. Harris played 59 snaps in Week 1 and 70 snaps in Week 2, but suffered a shin injury at practice this week, which caused him to miss Thursday’s session and be limited on Friday. If he’s unable to go, expect a larger role for Jordan Howden, who has performed well in a smaller role to begin 2024.

Eagles

Saints

LEAN: OVER 49.5 (-105)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

According to Daniel Popper of The Athletic, it’s still unclear whether or not Justin Herbert will play on Sunday. Herbert is currently dealing with a high ankle sprain and didn’t practice on Friday. Easton Stick and Taylor Heinicke are the team’s two backup quarterback options. Stick ranked 52nd out of 72 quarterbacks in EPA/play last season (min. 10 dropbacks). Heinicke was slightly better, ranking 26th. Both signal callers ranked 37th or worse in success rate, making neither a high-upside option if Herbert can’t play.

Pittsburgh will once again be without starting LG Isaac Seumalo. Spencer Anderson has struggled mightily as a replacement for Seumalo, ranking 57th out of 64 players at his position in pass block grade and 53rd in run block grade, per PFF. He’s allowed a 7.8% pressure rate compared to Seumalo’s 4.4% pressure rate in 2023. Further complicating the Steelers’ offensive line situation heading into Week 3 is the potential absence of starting RT Troy Fautanu, who injured his knee in Friday’s practice. Broderick Jones would likely draw the start if Fautanu is unable to play this weekend. Jones committed 3 penalties in a 6-play span last weekend against Denver before being benched for the remainder of the game.

Chargers

Steelers

LEAN: UNDER 35 (-112)

Denver Broncos vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Earlier this week, Denver placed their starting RT Mike McGlinchey on injured reserve. McGlinchey allowed a 5.4% pressure rate through the first two games of this season but will now be replaced by Alex Palczewski, who went undrafted in 2023 and has played only 2 NFL snaps in his career. The other notable loss for the Broncos heading into Week 3 is EDGE Baron Browning. Browning played 46 snaps in Week 1 and is an integral member of his team’s pass rush when healthy.

Tampa Bay is one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL right now. They will be without star S Antoine Winfield Jr. for the second consecutive week. This past weekend, the Buccaneers allowed 463 yards of total offense to the Lions with Winfield on the sidelines. In Week 3, they will also be without star DT Vita Vea, who had 5.5 sacks last year and 6.5 sacks in 2022. The Buccaneers’ offense will once again be shorthanded as well, with starting RT Luke Goedeke missing his second straight game. His backup, Justin Skule, struggled in Week 2, allowing a ghastly 13.8% pressure rate. Facing a strong Denver pass rush, Skule could be in for a rough day.

Broncos

Buccaneers

LEAN: Buccaneers Team Total UNDER 23.5 Points (+100)

Carolina Panthers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The biggest news for the Panthers heading into Week 3 isn’t injury related, but rather, performance related. Bryce Young has been benched, with veteran Andy Dalton being named the team’s starting quarterback for this weekend. The big question mark for Carolina continues to be how their defense will hold up with star DL Derrick Brown on injured reserve. This unit could be in even worse shape in Week 3 if DE A’Shawn Robinson or DT Shy Tuttle are unable to go. Robinson and Tuttle both played 40+ snaps in Week 2.

The biggest news for the Raiders heading into this weekend is that EDGE Maxx Crosby is expected to play despite being hobbled by an ankle injury all week. However, the rest of his defensive teammates have a less optimistic outlook. LB Divine Deablo and CB Decamerion Richardson have already been ruled out. Deablo played 42 snaps in Week 1 and 43 snaps in Week 2. DT Christian Wilkins, who has the 3rd most tackles on the team, is listed as questionable.

Panthers

Raiders

LEAN: Alexander Mattison Any Time Touchdown (+260)

Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks

Tua Tagovailoa has been placed on injured reserve, which means that Skylar Thompson will start at quarterback this weekend for the Dolphins. It’s impossible to overstate how significant the drop off in talent is from Tagovailoa to Thompson. Among 74 quarterbacks with 10+ dropbacks in 2022, Thompson ranked 68th in EPA/play and 66th in success rate. RB DeVon Achane should be busy once again out of the backfield, with a limited quarterback under center and starting RB Raheem Mostert doubtful to suit up.

Knowing only Miami’s quarterback situation, it would appear that Seattle is well positioned to earn an easy win on Sunday. However, the Seahawks are dealing with their own issues, missing RB Kenneth Walker for the second week in a row and EDGE Uchenna Nwosu for the third week in a row. EDGE Boye Mafe, LB Jerome Baker, and S K’Von Wallace are all questionable or doubtful for Sunday as well. Mafe leads all Seattle players with 2 sacks this fall. Maye and Baker both have 9 tackles, which ranks top 5 on Seattle’s defense. These are notable names that might not be on the field this weekend.

Dolphins

Seahawks

LEAN: Zach Charbonnet Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys

Coming off of an embarrassing meltdown at home against the Raiders in Week 2, the Ravens are at least healthy as they head to Jerry World in Week 3. CB Nate Wiggins was limited at practice on Friday, but everyone else of note was a full participant and should be able to play on Sunday. Wiggins played 17 snaps in Week 1 prior to leaving the game with an injury. He was Baltimore’s 1st round draft pick this past summer, but this is a talented secondary unit, even with Wiggins on the sidelines.

Dallas will get TE Jake Ferguson back on the field this weekend, but they will still be without a few notable names on defense, including stars EDGE Sam Williams and CB DaRon Bland. The Cowboys could also be without DT Mazi Smith this weekend, who played 33 snaps in Week 2. Any loss is a notable loss for Dallas’ defense, which is very thin on quality talent.

Ravens

Cowboys

LEAN: Lamar Jackson OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

The 49ers will be without three of their top skill position players, with RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle each ruled out or doubtful heading into the weekend. They will also be without starting RG Jon Feliciano, who is yet to play in 2024, in addition to a couple of notable defensive players. The only good injury news that San Francisco has this week is that S Talanoa Hufanga will play for the first time this fall. Hufanga finished 2023 ranked 42nd out of 94 players at his position in coverage and 18th against the run, per PFF. From Week 1 to Week 11, with Hufanga on the field, San Francisco’s defense ranked 5th in EPA/play and 14th in success rate. From Week 12 to Week 17, with Hufanga injured, the 49ers’ defense regressed to 16th in EPA/play and 15th in success rate. They fell out of the top 10 in both EPA/play and success rate defending the pass. This is a major boon to their defense.

Last week in this article, I wrote, “If there was an award for most-injured team each week, the Rams would be unanimous winners in Week 2.” They would be unanimous winners again in Week 3 after losing WR Cooper Kupp, LG Jonah Jackson, and S John Johnson III to injury this past weekend. Los Angeles enters Week 3 without the entire left side of their starting offensive line, their top 2 wide receivers, and arguably, the top 2 members of their secondary unit. The Rams are quickly spiraling out of playoff contention.

49ers

Rams

LEAN: 49ers -6.5 (-105)

Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Lions have some big names on the injury report heading into the weekend, but LG Graham Glasgow, LB Alex Anzalone, and CB Terrion Arnold each logged a limited practice on Friday, which bodes well for them suiting up on Sunday. The only two players who are ruled out for Detroit have played a combined 3 snaps so far in 2024. Both Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and S Ifeatu Melifonwu are skilled players, but the team has been playing without them for multiple weeks.

Arizona has already been playing without starting RT Jonah Williams, who was placed on injured reserve after getting hurt in Week 1. Now, backup RT Kelvin Beachum seems to be trending toward not playing in Week 3, leaving the Cardinals with a tough situation at the position. The team’s top replacement options appear to be rookie Isaiah Adams, who played 10 games at right tackle in college last season, and Jackson Barton, who is currently on Arizona’s practice squad. Williams allowed a 5.6% pressure rate in 2023. Beachum has allowed a 7.7% pressure rate since taking over in Week 1. A third option at RT is likely to be a human turnstile against a capable Detroit pass rush.

Lions

Cardinals

LEAN: OVER 51.5 (-108)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons

Kansas City enters Week 3 mostly healthy, with the one notable exception being their running back room. Both of their top 2 options entering 2024, Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, are on injured reserve. Carson Steele figures to see an expanded role as the team’s option between the tackles, with Samaje Perine handling most if not all of the passing down snaps.

Atlanta is similarly healthy, with the exception being LB Nate Landman, who was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. Landman played 37 snaps for the Falcons in Week 1, finishing with 6 tackles. He finished the opening weekend of action ranked 2nd out of 53 players at his position in run defense grade, per PFF. In Atlanta’s first game without Landman on the field, they allowed 186 rushing yards and 5.03 yards per carry to the Eagles.

Chiefs

Falcons

LEAN: Carson Steele Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)

NFL Week 3 – Longshot Injury Report 13-Leg Parlay

Odds = +2615 (DraftKings)

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom