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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 15

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-15 03:29:18

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

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San Diego at Denver

San Diego Chargers Denver Broncos
Chargers Broncos
Thurs – 8:25PM ET Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
10 55.5 22.75 -10 55.5 32.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 24.3 11 4 20 Offense 39.6 1 1 12
Defense 22.4 11 28 19 Defense 26.5 25 29 7
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Denver 29 24 24 30 San Diego 24 9 28 13
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Allen 85 7.0 8.3 3.0 Thomas 118 9.0 8.3 10.0
Brown 60 4.6 2.3 4.0 Decker 110 8.4 9.3 12.0
Royal 52 4.3 4.0 4.0 Caldwell 10 0.8 0.7 1.0
Gates 105 7.8 7.7 6.0 Thomas 69 6.3 7.0 7.0

San Diego Chargers

It’s not every week that the game with the highest projected over/under comes on Thursday night, but that’s the case in Week 15. This should create an interesting dynamic for Thursday games and the decision to roll heavily owned players out in this situation or fade will be critical to your week. The Chargers will be working to get their 2nd consecutive victory after trouncing the Giants last weekend 37-14 at home. They’ll face a Broncos team that is red hot offensively right now but there defense showed real signs of weakness in Week 14 and was bailed out by the strong offensive performance. When these two teams met earlier, Philip Rivers threw for just 214 yards and one score in a 28-20 home loss. He should have better luck on Sunday, as the Broncos have allowed a multiple passing touchdowns all but twice since Week 6 and are bottom-10 versus quarterbacks for the season, last 5 week and last 3 week splits. The -10.5 spread also indicates San Diego should be chasing Peyton and company and that could lead to a ton of garbage time points. On the outside, Rivers looks like he’ll have access to his star WR Keenan Allen, who has been banged up but still managed 2 scores on just 3 receptions last week. Allen will have a tough matchup with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie on the outside. The Broncos defense has allowed some big games but Rodgers-Cromartie has been sound, and ranks 5th overall in PFF’s coverage ratings. That leaves Rivers with limited other options, and Ladarius Green disappointed many of us a week ago. The biggest reason for Green’s downfall? The return of Eddie Royal. Green ran just 5 total routes on Sunday and was targeted once, while Royal saw 4 targets. His snap count percentage was gashed in half as well. With Royal probable again for this game, Green should be back to playing 2 TE sets only and will be much less involved in the passing game.

The rushing attack for San Diego has been a revelation in recent weeks, and they might be peaking at the right time. The Broncos D-line has a ton of injuries and IF San Diego can keep this game close enough to be able to run consistently, Ryan Mathews could be looking at a huge day. Mathews is 10th in FPPG over the last 3 weeks after and has 2 touchdowns, 219 rush yards and 10 receptions in that span. In that same time span, the Broncos rush defense has allowed 321 rush yards on 70 attempts for a 4.58 YPC average and 5 rushing touchdowns. Not to mention 17 receptions for 141 more yards to opposing RBs. Denver has lead every game they’ve played in that time by more than 10 points at some time, and still running backs have been able to gash them up front. Mathews will play a huge factor on a short rest week.

Denver Broncos

For Denver, the back-to-back wins have them on track to be the #1 seed in the AFC but you can never overlook a divisional opponent and the Broncos will be without one of their star wideouts on Thursday. Welker is expected to miss this game with his 2nd concussion in 4 weeks and that means Jacob Tamme is the likely candidate to step up in his place. Tamme played 40 of 42 snaps in the slot last week after Welker went down and has shown that he and Peyton still have some impressive rapport. Speaking of Manning, he’s back to being non-human and now has over 800 yards passing and 9 touchdowns in his last two games since the embarrassing loss in New England. When these teams met earlier in the year, he had 330 and 4 scores, with three of them going to Demaryius Thomas. Thomas will again have a strong matchup against San Diego and Shareece Wright. Wright is below average on the year and while he’s been better, he’s still not talented enough to make you worry about slowing down this potent offense. But back to Manning, it’s clear that he’s in play every week regardless of matchup. I will note that the Chargers have been a touch better in defending the pass in recent weeks, and have frustrated Andy Dalton and Eli Manning in back to back games (albeit at home). That home/road difference has been pretty drastic for SD though, and they’re allowing just 261 passing yards per game at home compared to 302 per game on the road.

The Broncos may also be able to find success on the ground, especially if they’re protecting a lead the size that Vegas is projecting. Three consecutive RB1’s have been able to go for over 80 yards against this SD front seven and PFF has the Chargers rush defense rated as the 4th worst in the NFL this season. They’re allowing the 13th most FPPG to opposing backs over the last 3 weeks and both Moreno and Ball should see plenty of action on Thursday night. Last week, Ball saw a season high 15 carries for 77 yards and a score. It’s pretty clear that Denver wants to work him more into the mix in an effort to get Moreno some rest, so if this game gets ugly then Ball should see around that many touches this weekend. In fact, over the last two weeks Ball has been the Broncos leading rusher with 180 yards on the ground. Moreno still has a ton of PPR value, as he caught 8 balls for 49 yards in the Week 10 matchup between these teams.

SD @ DEN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Chicago at Cleveland

Chicago Bears Cleveland Browns
Bears Browns
Sun – 1:00PM ET FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
2.5 45 21.25 -2.5 45 23.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 28.3 2 5 17 Offense 19.8 27 10 28
Defense 27.7 28 10 32 Defense 24.9 19 8 4
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Cleveland 17 22 11 18 Chicago 7 28 14 25
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Marshall 132 10.2 9.7 8.0 Gordon 123 11.2 14.0 10.0
Jeffery 127 9.8 10.7 9.0 Little 84 6.5 5.0 4.0
Bennett 36 2.5 4.3 2.0 Bess 83 6.4 5.7 4.0
Bennett 81 6.1 5.3 6.0 Cameron 104 8.1 8.7 9.0

Chicago Bears

This Bears offense has been incredible under Josh McCown but it’s not known at the time of this posting whether or not Cutler will be able to return for this game. He’s practicing this week which is a great sign for his prospects so with that in mind, let’s flashback to who he was targeting most before the injury in Weeks 1-6:

Marshall – 58 targets, Jeffery – 50 targets, Forte – 39 targets, Bennett – 44 targets

Both Alshon and Marshall were targeted a ton and each had 3 games with over 100 receiving yards in Cutler’s 7 starts on the season. They both will see a decent amount of Joe Haden this weekend, although it’s unclear who will lineup up across from Haden most often. Haden is likely to shadow the RWR but the Bears move Jeffery and Marshall around the field a lot. The best matchup for either is likely to be when they’re moved into the slot against CLE slot corner Buster Skrine. That’s something both Marshall and Jeffery will do, so targeting either seems like a good bet although keep in mind that a number of their targets will come against one of the best corners in the NFL.

The ground game for Chicago has also been strong but faces a tough front seven for Cleveland this weekend. They haven’t allowed a 100+ yard rusher all season, while Matt Forte has gone over 100 rush yards in each of his last 2 games. One of those streaks will break on Sunday as the 8th rated rush defense on PFF matches up against the 4th best rush blocking O-line for Chicago. The strong front seven for Cleveland hasn’t always prevented top notch fantasy results, as they rank 22nd in the NFL vs. RB’s, mostly because they really struggle in stopping pass catching backs. Last week, Shane Vereen totaled an absolute monster 153 yards in the passing game against Cleveland, who now allows the 5th most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs with over 50 yds/game allowed. Vereen leads all backs in the NFL in terms of receptions per game (at 8 per game), but Forte is tied for 2nd with 5 receptions per game and could provide similar issues for this Cleveland defense.

Cleveland Browns

There aren’t too many times where you get excited about the Browns offense but when facing the Bears, you can’t help but see some upside. Chicago’s rush defense has been atrocious so we can start there, but unfortunately Cleveland’s rushing offense has been equally bad. Cleveland is throwing on 67% of plays over the last three games, which is good for 2nd most in the NFL. The Browns will be without Willis McGahee, which could open up touches for Chris Ogbonnaya and Fozzy Whittaker, although there is some concern that Whittaker might be in the dog house after botching the onside kick recover last weekend. With McGahee sitting, it’s likely both Ogbonnaya and Whittaker see about 8-9 touches each.

The passing game, as noted above, is the focal point of this offense and Jason Campbell really spread the ball around to his two best options last Sunday. Jordan Cameron had a monster game, reeling in 9 balls for 121 yards and a score and now draws a Bears defense that ranks in the bottom-5 against TE’s on the year and 8th worst vs. TE’s over the last three weeks. They’ve struggled against a similarly talented Jordan Reed, as well as allowing huge games to Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham. Cameron is one of the most athletic TE’s in the NFL already and should be one of the toughest matchups for Chicago to account for. It’s also worth noting that the Browns are surprising 2.5 point favorites, so the Vegas oddsmakers are clearly expecting their offense to be able to move the ball and gain a lead against Chicago’s defense. Now we can discuss that other guy in Cleveland’s offense, you know, the one who broke the NFL record for most receiving yards in a 4 game span. 774 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns in a 4 week span isn’t too shabby for Josh Gordon, as he continues to prove he’s a top-5 WR in the NFL. Gordon will see a heavy dose of both Tim Jennings and Zack Bowman in coverage, and they’re the 43rd and 45th rated coverage corners on PFF respectively. But Gordon ran all over one of the NFL’s best corners in Aqib Talib last week and seems matchup proof at the moment.

CHI @ CLE – Daily Fantasy Relevant

1 – If Cutler is unable to go, Josh McCown is definitely relevant. But if Cutler plays, I have some concern about using him in DFS this weekend in his first game back.

Houston at Indianapolis

Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts
Texans Colts
Sun – 1:00PM ET Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
6 45.5 19.75 -6 45.5 25.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 19.2 29 11 16 Offense 24.1 15 18 22
Defense 26.9 27 2 21 Defense 24.3 16 18 29
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Indianapolis 21 14 25 8 Houston 8 20 4 17
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Johnson 149 11.5 12.0 21.0 Hilton 104 7.8 7.0 5.0
Hopkins 78 5.9 5.3 7.0 Rogers 9 4.5 4.5 9.0
Martin 28 2.2 3.0 6.0 Brazill 25 3.1 5.7 4.0
Graham 88 6.8 11.3 14.0 Fleener 80 5.9 7.3 9.0

Houston Texans

Kubiak is gone but the Texans will move on with Case Keenum and company as they head into a Week 15 battle in Indy. The Colts are fading fast, but nowhere near as quickly as the Texans have fallen. That means close to nothing for DFS purposes though, and Houston’s passing game has an elite matchup against the Indy secondary. Back in Week 9, Keenum carved this defense apart for 350 passing yards and 3 scores while Andre Johnson just had a little 229 yard, 2 TD game. Johnson is just 1 of 5 WR1’s to have torn apart Vontae Davis this season and Davis will likely again shadow Johnson in Week 15. Davis has been the 6th rated coverage corner on PFF this season but allowed both of Johnson’s touchdowns in Week 9 and has struggled against bigger wideouts like Andre. The matchup is also strong for Keenum, as the Colts are the 5th worst defense vs. quarterbacks over the last 5 weeks and the 2nd worst defense vs. quarterbacks over the last 3 weeks. In those last three weeks, all 3 opposing QBs have gone over 20 fantasy points. And Indy hasn’t exactly been facing world-beaters in that span, as the 3 guys to torch them were Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton. One last note in the Texans passing game, Garrett Graham is questionable right now so be sure to check for updates on his status.

The Colts rushing defense has also been fading fast and they rank in the bottom-10 in defense vs. running back stats for the last 5 and 3 week splits. Gio Bernard broke out for 99 yards on the ground last week and BJGE punched in 2 scores to go with 50 rushing yards. They’ve only held their opponents to under 100 rushing yards once since Week 7 as well. That’s good news for Ben Tate, although his usage has been fluctuating a ton since the injury to Foster. He was able to go for 88 yards on 22 carries in Houston’s first game without Foster (against IND), but has matched that 22 carry total just once since then and has 15 or fewer rushes in 3 of the 6 games he’s been the starter. It’s not wholly clear what kind of offensive attack the Texans will use as their season winds down and they’re without former head coach Gary Kubiak, but I’d imagine that they will try to highlight Keenum a lot to find out whether or not they have a franchise QB on their hands. This may lead to a slight drop in touches for Tate.

Indianapolis Colts

Not only was Andrew Luck the highest scoring quarterback last week, on a week where it seemed like every QB had a huge game, but he also managed to do it with T.Y. Hilton having just 2 total catches for 7 yards. For Hilton, it was his fourth consecutive disappointing game and you have to go back to the last time these two teams played to find paydirt for the athletic wideout. That game was also the last time (before last week), that Luck had topped 20 fantasy points. In that Week 9 game, Hilton had three scores to go along with 120 yards receiving and both Hilton and Luck should be able to find some space against a Houston secondary that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 5 of their last 6 contests. But the story for Indy last weekend wasn’t about Hilton, and wasn’t even really about Luck, but Da’Rick Rogers. In just his 2nd game of the season, Da’Rick hauled in 6 balls for 100+ yards and 2 scores. He played 41 snaps compared to Hilton’s 46 and might finally be the 2nd wideout that Luck has been searching for so desperately since losing Reggie Wayne. He saw 9 total targets, 2 of which came inside the 20, and according to PFF, 91 of his receiving yards came on shallow patterns over the middle of the field. He’s an intriguing option this week with a great matchup against a team that has allowed their opponent’s WR2 to post solid stat lines in four of their last six:

The rushing attack for Indy isn’t much to talk about. While Brown is listed as RB1, he only saw 4 carries in last week’s game while the Colts played catch up. He did catch 4 balls, but the bulk of the receiving action went to Trent Richardson. For the 2nd time in his last four games, Richardson caught 5 balls in the passing game and last week he totaled 68 yards receiving compared to a miserable 20 rush yards on 6 attempts. He’s far from what he used to be, but getting him involved out of the backfield could bring him back from the fantasy coma he’s been in all season. The Colts are 6 point home favorites, so it’s likely they’ll be running the ball more than the 10 times in Week 14, but this situation is far too messy to be trying to dissect. If anything, goal-line carries will likely stay in the hands of their QB.

HOU @ IND – Daily Fantasy Relevant

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)