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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 15 - Page 4

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-14 21:22:30

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Philadelphia at Minnesota

Philadelphia Eagles Minnesota Vikings
Eagles Vikings
Sun – 1:00PM ET Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-4.5 51 27.75 4.5 51 23.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.7 9 13 1 Offense 24.2 14 22 7
Defense 23.2 13 31 15 Defense 30.4 31 30 22
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Minnesota 31 26 31 29 Philadelphia 23 16 32 4
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Jackson 102 7.8 6.0 6.0 Patterson 60 4.5 7.3 7.0
Cooper 70 5.4 7.5 9.0 Jennings 81 6.8 7.3 10.0
Avant 63 4.8 2.0 0.0 Simpson 87 6.5 7.0 8.0
Celek 40 3.2 4.5 3.0 Carlson 48 3.7 5.0 4.0

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are coming off an entertaining win in wintry conditions against the Lions and will head to Minnesota in Week 15. Nick Foles continues to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and has another juicy matchup on Sunday against the hapless Vikings secondary that lost their only solid cornerback last weekend against the Ravens. Xavier Rhodes is out for MIN this weekend, leaving Chris Cook and Marcus Sherels as the likely starters on the outside against Riley Cooper and DeSean Jackson. Cook ranks 61st on PFF’s coverage ratings for CBs and Sherels is 75th among qualified corners, so neither have been great this year and Cooper/Jackson should have success on the outside. Cooper should see mostly Cook in coverage, while Jackson has a slightly better matchup against Sherels on the right side of the field. Where Minnesota has really struggled is over the middle of the field though, as showcased by Alshon Jeffery two weeks ago with 165 of his 249 receiving yards coming between the numbers and Marlon Brown having success from the slot receiver position in Week 14 as well with 7 receptions for 92 yards and a score. Philly doesn’t have a great slot receiver, with Jason Avant filling that gap but he hasn’t been targeted more than 4 times since Week 7. More likely it will be the tight ends Ertz and Celek targeted over the middle and MIN ranks 6th worst in the NFL against tight ends over the last 5 weeks. Foles and company should have a nice day against a defense that has already allowed 28 passing touchdowns through just 13 games.

The rushing game for Philly exploded in the snow last weekend and has a much more favorable matchup than they were faced with in Week 14. Minnesota has been abysmal against the run, having allowed 100+ net rush and receiving yards to three consecutive RB1s. McCoy is coming off his best game of the year after rushing for 217 yards and 2 scores last weekend and with the spread favoring Philly, he could see a lot of late touches in this one as well. Philly’s rush offense overall rates out as the best in the NFL on ProFootballFocus and will face the 6th worst rush stop defense in those ratings so there’s certainly a lot to be excited about here.

Minnesota Vikings

With how bad the defense has been, it’s not unlikely that the Vikings passing game will be forced to throw early and often in this game against the high-powered Eagles. Matt Cassel played extremely well against Baltimore on the road last weekend, going for 265 yards and 2 scores. Now that he’s played the majority of the last two games, we can get a decent feel for who he’s looked for the most often with the current group of receivers:

Jennings (19 targets), Simpson (17 targets), Patterson (11 targets), Carlson (10 targets)

Jennings and Simpson seem to be Cassel’s favorites which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense considering Cassel’s average depth of target is 8.6 yards per attempt which is closer to the range where Cordarrelle Patterson sees most of his looks. Jennings and Simpson tend to be more deep threats, which isn’t really Cassel’s specialty. Regardless, all three saw 7+ targets in the Week 14 loss and are in a good spot against the Eagles secondary who has allowed 8 300+ yard passing games on the season. Going back a few weeks, it looks like the most success has been had against PHI by 2nd receivers. Rod Streater, Jarrett Boykin and Michael Floyd have all lead their teams in receiving yards (with at least 98 yards each) in 3 of the Eagles last 5 games. All three of them have lined up as receiver to the wide right of the QB. For Minnesota, that man will be Greg Jennings, making him a juicy option in large field tournaments in Week 15. It’s also worth noting that the Vikings will be without John Carlson this weekend and Rhett Ellison and Chase Ford should see added snaps from the TE spot, but more targets will be available for the WR trio of Patterson/Jennings/Simpson.

There’s a lot of confusion in the rushing game for Minnesota, as Adrian Peterson is unlikely to play but hasn’t been ruled out and Toby Gerhart is dealing with an injury of his own. Instead of listing them all as fantasy relevant or irrelevant, let’s take a look at the various situations that could arise from this and how to approach each against an Eagles front seven that has been middle of the pack vs. RBs in every defense vs. position split:

1) AP Plays, Gerhart Doesn’t – Target Peterson as a high upside play who had back to back 150+ rush yard performances before leaving after just 7 touches in Week 14.

2) Gerhart Plays, AP Doesn’t – Gerhart becomes a solid gamble in tournaments this weekend and is cheap across the industry.

3) AP and Gerhart Sit – Get pieces from the MIN passing game in your lineups, as their value should skyrocket even higher than it already is with no run game to speak of and missing their top two TEs as well.

PHI @ MIN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Arizona at Tennessee

Arizona Cardinals Tennessee Titans
Cardinals Titans
Sun – 1:00PM ET LP Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-2.5 41.5 22 2.5 41.5 19.5
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 23.5 16 14 26 Offense 22.5 18 23 15
Defense 19.8 7 12 3 Defense 24.5 17 11 20
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Tennessee 5 31 2 22 Arizona 14 1 5 32
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Fitzgerald 111 8.5 10.3 12.0 Wright 105 8.1 7.0 3.0
Floyd 90 6.9 7.3 5.0 Washington 82 6.3 6.0 6.0
Roberts 65 5.0 5.0 2.0 Hunter 38 3.2 6.3 8.0
Housler 49 4.5 5.0 4.0 Walker 65 5.4 5.5

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals head to Tennessee to face a team that just got run all over by the Broncos passing game on the road. Carson Palmer saw his 5 straight games with multi-TD passes streak broken up in Week 14, but still performed well for 269 yards and a score in a blowout. Larry Fitzgerald continued a streak of his own though, and has now found the end zone in four straight games. Over those four games, Fitz has been targeted 11 times in the red zone and is clearly Palmer’s go to guy near the goal line. That should only increase this week with news that tight end Rob Housler is doubtful to lace up in Tennessee. But as I’ve mentioned in week’s past with the Titans, their secondary is incredibly talented and Peyton Manning was the first QB to have multiple passing touchdowns against them since Matt Schaub did so in Week 2. That Broncos offense is much more potent than the Cardinals, and there should be a fair amount of concern for all the options in this passing game against a defense that has allowed just 221 passing yards per game this season at home and 2 total touchdowns on their home turf over 6 games. The Titans biggest vulnerability via the pass has been against the TE position, but with Housler out the Cards tight end situation is murky with a mixture of Jim Dray and Jake Ballard being involved.

On the ground, the disastrous situation set up by Bruce Arians continues to frustrate fantasy players. Last week, Mendenhall and Ellington both found pay dirt but Mendy got 17 carries compared to just 11 for Ellington and played on 49% of downs compared to just 34% for the rookie back. It may still be a situation worth diving into this weekend though, as the Titans have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to opposing backs over the last 5 weeks and the 4th most to RBs over the last 3 weeks. A week ago, both Moreno and Montee Ball totaled 75 yards and a score against this front seven and they haven’t stopped an opposing back from finding the end-zone, whether by pass or rush, since Week 4. One player who hasn’t necessarily been relevant yet but could find success in the passing game is Stepfan Taylor who has 6 targets over the last two weeks. Ellington has had some involvement in the screen game but it looks like Taylor may be that third down passing down back and could be someone to keep an eye on as the season winds down.

Tennessee Titans

We can start with the matchup that everyone seems to be excited about, which is Delanie Walker against the Cardinals defense. There’s plenty of reason to love the matchup, with Arizona ranking worst in FPPG-allowed to tight ends on the year and last 3 weeks, along with 2nd worst over the last 5 weeks. Last week actually marked the first time an opposing TE wasn’t able to find the end zone since Week 8 for Arizona and Walker is listed as probable after sitting out last week with a concussion. Walker has been boom or bust but does have a few nice games against bad defenses on his resume, so is worth consideration in this one. Looking at the rest of Tennessee’s passing game, Ryan Fitzpatrick could struggle against a defense allowing the 8th fewest FPPG to opposing QBs over the last three weeks and ranks 2nd highest on PFFs pass coverage ratings behind only Seattle. No receiver has gone over 70 yards against the Cardinals either since Harry Douglas broke free for 121 in Week 8.

The front seven for Arizona is pretty strong as well, and held Zac Stacy to just under 2 YPC on 14 touches in Week 14. In fact, every running back since Marshawn Lynch in Week 7 has underperformed against this defense. Take a look:

It’s going to be tough for CJ2K to find space on Sunday and while he always has big play ability, he’s unlikely to have a big impact in Week 14.

ARI @ TEN – Daily Fantasy Relevant

NY Jets at Carolina

New York Jets Carolina Panthers
Jets Panthers
Sun – 4:05PM ET Bank of America Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
11 40.5 14.75 -11 40.5 25.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 17.4 31 30 11 Offense 22.9 17 29 9
Defense 25.9 23 24 2 Defense 14.5 1 5 1
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Carolina 2 4 6 14 NY Jets 22 2 26 23
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Hill 59 4.9 2.5 Smith 102 7.9 6.7 8.0
Holmes 41 5.1 3.0 5.0 Lafell 77 5.7 5.3 4.0
Nelson 45 5.0 5.7 4.0 Ginn Jr. 4.5 6.3 5.0
Cumberland 31 2.6 1.7 0.0 Olsen 86 6.8 9.3 12.0

New York Jets

I should have taken my own advice last weekend and used Geno Smith in a tournament. He wasn’t stellar, but he found the end zone through both the air and on the ground and threw for 219 while netting another 50 via the run. It was his best fantasy performance since Week 7 vs. NE and the window on him may be closed now, at least for this weekend. While the Panthers have shown some weakness in the passing game over the last 5 weeks, they’re still a high enough caliber defense to eliminate a mistake-prone rookie QB at home. Carolina has allowed 3 of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to throw for 296 yards or more but that’s pretty unlikely for Smith who has only topped that 296 marker once all season and that was back in Week 3. As we outlined last week though, Geno is a much better player when he has Jeremy Kerley on the field and getting both Kerley and Holmes on the field at the same time paid huge dividends in Week 14. He threw at Kerley 7 times and at Holmes 5 times. Neither had huge games, but Kerley was able to find the end zone with 44 receiving yards on four catches and Holmes had 3 grabs for 55 yards. After another 22.8 Fantasy Points for Geno in Week 14, he’s now averaging over 20 FPPG with Kerley in the lineup.

The Jets running game looked better on paper in Week 14 than the actual results, with the bulk of Chris Ivory 76 yards coming on one big rush but he also found the end zone and has now been a sneaky value option in 3 of his last 5 games. The Panthers have been mediocre in recent weeks against the rush but their real strength has been their ability to control the time of possession and keep the ball out of the opposing offense’s hands. Given the fact that NYJ is 11 point road underdogs, it’s safe to avoid all Jets running backs in a game where the run game could be vacated early.

Carolina Panthers

For Carolina, a tough loss in New Orleans snapped an 8 game winning streak and they’ll have to bounce back and take care of business at home against the Jets. New York’s rush defense has been the best in football all season long, but has really struggled over the last two weeks and may be vulnerable. Here are the last two RB1 game logs against:

It’s not that the Miller stats are bad for the rush defense, but given how sturdy they had been upfront it was a bit alarming. Then Reece’s huge game in Week 14 was a significant drop off from what has been expected by this front seven. The Panthers ground game is clearer than ever as Jonathan Stewart has been ruled out for at least a couple of weeks and that means DeAngelo is back to being the RB1 with Tolbert likely handling a number of goal line touched. As 11 point favorites, it’s safe to bet on Williams seeing 20+ touches and with that number of opportunities he could be a nice value option. When Stewart returned, this became a running back by committee set up but with Stewart out, DeAngelo can return to being the featured back that had 291 rushing yards over the first three weeks of the season.

The passing game could see some relief on Sunday as Antonio Cromartie is questionable for the Jets. Cro hasn’t been great this year, but his talent is still undoubtedly there and without him there is a real mess in the secondary for NYJ. Even with Cromartie, the Jets secondary has been lit up and ranks 8th worst in FPPG-allowed to quarterbacks over the last 5 weeks and 9th worst over the last 3 weeks. In that 5 week span, they’ve allowed Drew Brees, EJ Manuel, Ryan Tannehill and Matt McGloin to have multiple passing touchdowns against them and no QB has thrown for less than 245 yards. They continue to struggle against the deep pass, with Marquise Goodwin, Jacoby Jones, Brian Hartline and Rod Streater all finding the end zone and all but Goodwin had 100+ yards receiving. Steve Smith has had a limited ceiling all year long, but this could be one of the best matchups he sees and likely his best opportunity to cross the 100 yards receiving mark. Ted Ginn has been the Panthers best deep threat, averaging 15.9 yards per target according to PFF, and should also be considered as a big upside play against this secondary.

NYJ @ CAR – Daily Fantasy Relevant

I don’t view any of the Jets options as relevant in a tough matchup against a strong defense.

NFL Grind Down Page 4 – Page 5

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Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)